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211. Pandemic (COVID-19) Policy Regional Cooperation and the Emerging Global Production Network

Author:
Fukunari Kimura
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
In this paper, we explore the possible policy responses to the pandemic shock as well as the related economic (financial crisis) shocks on trade and global value chains (GVCs) in East Asia. We find that regional policy coordination is critical to mitigate and isolate the pandemic shock. It is important to identify the pandemic events early to flatten the pandemic curve at the national and regional level. This supports a recent study by the World Bank (2020) which highlights the importance of early mitigation policies during the pandemic shock. The cost of the pandemic and economic shocks increases significantly when several countries in the region experience the systemic pandemic shock concurrently. In this case, flattening the regional pandemic curve becomes important. The results also indicate the need for greater coordination in East Asia to mitigate the pending economic shock in terms of unemployment, corporate bankruptcy, and financial market fragility. The paper also highlights that the stability of the GVC network is critical during the pandemic in terms of hedging the risk of disruptions to the procurement of critical medical and health products as well as the stability of the services linkages to manufacturing, such as the logistics sector. Regional policy coordination and the stability of GVCs are valuable in the post-pandemic recovery of the region.
Topic:
World Bank, Pandemic, Global Value Chains, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
East Asia and Asia

212. Massive but divisive: Crisis management and EU responses to COVID-19

Author:
Jens Bastian
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Coordinated Covid-19 crisis management among EU member states took weeks to develop. The initial response was slow, at times contradictory, frequently displaying nation-state unilateralism and obviously divisive. An unprecedented architecture of fiscal and monetary partnership is now building in Europe. The ECB is taking the lead in this construction process, with national governments asserting their political prerogatives while the Commission in Brussels is careful not to overstep the national sovereignty of its member states. As the crisis response to Covid-19 has highlighted manifest fault lines among EU member states, these divisions could morph into bigger controversies during uncoordinated exit strategies. Once the cessation of economic activity can start to unwind, the debate across Europe will accelerate over budget rules, further relief programmes and the demand for debt forbearance.
Topic:
Health, European Union, Crisis Management, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe

213. Refugees at the gate of Europe

Author:
Angeliki Dimitriadi
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The recent crisis in Evros brought back to the fore the issue of immigration and Turkey’s role in its instrumentalization. The EU-Turkey Statement has not had the expected outcomes. Rather it showed that prevention policies and the outsourcing of migration management strengthens transit countries such as Turkey, without resulting in a a steady reduction in flows. Greece remains a country that bears a disproportionate burden of responsibility due to its geographical location. At the same time, it has delayed in the planning of a holistic immigration policy, which should aim, among other things, to ensure human living conditions, substantial access to asylum and result in the integration of those who will remain in the country. COVID 19 will bring about significant socioeconomic changes globally as well as impact human rights. Practices of the past do not necessarily fit for the new reality and this is the biggest challenge for Greece and the EU; a willingness to move forward by investing on migration within Europe and beyond. It will not be easy, and it will come at a high financial (and likely political) cost. The pandemic makes any long-term commitments seem impossible, however the alternative scenario, of deterrence and outsourcing is already proving insufficient. Balancing the scales is a challenge which the EU cannot afford to lose.
Topic:
Human Rights, Migration, European Union, Refugees, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Greece, and Mediterranean

214. China and the World during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:
George Tzogopoulos
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
This essay analyses China’s health policies before and after the outbreak of COVID-19. It discusses how the problem broke out with emphasis on mistakes made by Wuhan authorities and sketches out the subsequent response of the Chinese government to stop the contagion and share practices. The essay also presents different narratives used by China, the US and the EU in dealing with the pandemic and considers multilateralism a key to address world problems. In so doing, it attempts to explore whether Sino-European partnerships could emerge in a period of rising uncertainty. Local authorities in Wuhan can be criticized for not providing information about the virus on time and for failing to block the exit of citizens from the city before the lockdown. But measures adopted subsequently by the Chinese government have been rather efficient and useful for other countries. The Sino-American antagonism overshadows the need of deeper international cooperation in dealing with COVID-19. China, the US and the EU have each attempted to shape the narrative about COVID-19. The hostility of the Trump administration towards multilateralism opens opportunities for new synergies between China and the EU on health governance. China’s Health Silk Road reflects continuity as it was first proposed in 2016. The post-COVID-19 landscape might portend both risks and opportunities to China.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Multilateralism, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and United States of America

215. Looking for a bridge over troubled waters: the forthcoming New Pact on Migration and Asylum

Author:
Angeliki Dimitriadi
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
On the occasion of the World Refugee Day, 20th of June, ELIAMEP publishes a Policy Brief on the forthcoming New Pact on Migration and Asylum, by Dr. Angeliki Dimitriadi, Senior Research Fellow and Head of ELIAMEP’s Migration Programme. COVID-19 has affected access to asylum. Border closures have prevented in many cases asylum seekers from reaching safety, or made them face prolonged delays in their asylum application. The New Pact on Migration and Asylum is expected to be announced by the end of June. It is one of the biggest challenges facing the current European Commission, which is called upon to submit proposals that will be accepted by the Member States with different perspectives but also asylum and immigration needs. The biggest challenge, however, is to ensure that the right and access to asylum is fully preserved and will be a priority for the Union for years to come. In the midst of ongoing conflicts, extreme poverty and increasingly restrictive practices at the external border, it is perhaps the last chance to ground a common migration and asylum policy on the the principles of humanity and solidarity, between Member States and towards asylum seekers. The New Pact for Asylum and Migration will seek to bridge the differences between Member States on the solidarity, burden-sharing and common asylum processes. Southern member states have tabled a detailed proposal on the way forward grounded on mandatory solidarity. Forced movement will continue and likely be exacerbated due to the impact of COVID-19 in critical regions like Africa and Southeast Asia.
Topic:
Migration, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Refugees, Borders, Asylum, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

216. Fear and lying in the EU: Fighting disinformation on migration with alternative narratives

Author:
Alberto-Horst Neidhardt and Paul Butcher
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre
Abstract:
Rather than trying to counter disinformation stories about migrants directly, communication professionals and policymakers must instead promote alternative narratives that undermine the appeal of messages that incite fear and rage, and reframe the debate on migration entirely. This is the conclusion of a collaborative research project between the Foundation for European Progressive Studies, the European Policy Centre, the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung and the Fundación Pablo Iglesias. Its aim was to identify and analyse misleading and hostile narratives on migration in Europe and formulate concrete recommendations on how to tackle them. The authors examined nearly 1,500 news articles from four EU member states (Germany, Italy, Spain and the Czech Republic), published between May 2019 and July 2020. Based on their research, the authors argue that disinformation narratives about migration seek to exploit readers’ fears to polarise public opinion, manufacture discontent, sow divisions and set the political agenda. They tend to adapt and change alongside the public’s main concerns. The COVID-19 pandemic, for example, has led to a growing stream of articles linking migrants to infection risks and accusing them of receiving preferential treatment.
Topic:
Migration, European Union, Refugees, COVID-19, and Disinformation
Political Geography:
Europe

217. High hopes, low expectations – Brussels’ perspective on the future of Europe after COVID-19

Author:
European Policy Centre
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
European Policy Centre
Abstract:
A new report details the Brussels community's views on the EU's handling of the pandemic and the future of Europe after COVID-19. The COVID-19 crisis has sent shockwaves through societies and economies, altering the parameters of politics in Europe and beyond. Germany holds the Presidency of the Council of the European Union (EU) at this make-or-break moment in European history. In the eyes of many Brussels-based stakeholders, this places enormous responsibility on Berlin's shoulders. They would like the German Presidency and particularly Angela Merkel to bridge existing divisions among the EU27 and use the crisis as an opportunity to promote closer European integration. However, there is scepticism that Germany can achieve this in its short six-month period at the helm of the Council. A similar duality of hopes and expectations also transpires from how different actors in Brussels perceive the Conference on the Future of Europe (CoFoE): they acknowledge this initiative's potential for much-needed EU reform, but also doubt that it will produce meaningful results. These opinions are some of the headline findings emerging from a study undertaken between July and August 2020 by the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS), the European Policy Centre (EPC) and ifok. 224 individuals from 29 EU and non-EU countries (with Germans slightly overrepresented at 32%) completed an online questionnaire about their main concerns and expectations for the German Presidency in light of the current situation and concerning the Union's long-term future. Respondents ranged from a high number of members of European institutions (30%), think tanks (21%) and non-governmental organisations to business representatives (17%), plus a smaller proportion of diplomats, journalists and academics. The project partners also conducted 20 personal interviews with high-level Brussels-based stakeholders to deepen the quantitative information collected via the online survey. Overall, Brussels-based stakeholders are worried about the current state of European integration and 'dream big' for the Union's future. However, they do not call for deeper European integration as an end in itself. Their support for potential treaty change as an outcome of the upcoming CoFoE, for example, is conditional upon the actual need to amend the Union's primary law. Likewise, their ambitions to advance EU cooperation is mitigated by a healthy dose of realism: they recognise the resilience of existing dividing lines between member states and have come to accept the idea that differentiated integration is the most probable course of action from here on out.
Topic:
European Union, Crisis Management, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

218. EU law in the time of COVID-19

Author:
David Edward, Robert Lane, and Leandro Macano
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre
Abstract:
The COVID-19 emergency has caused unprecedented legal challenges to the EU institutions and the member states across a wide spectrum of areas. The measures put in place to coordinate the immediate cross-border response to the outbreak are unlikely to lead to contentious legal problems. However, the Council, and especially the Commission, being also able to react to measures taken by member states, companies or firms, could prove to be potentially more intrusive. This paper deals with the powers governing the EU’s public health response to the COVID-19 outbreak and analyses the legal implications of actions taken by member states, companies and firms to mitigate the economic fallout of the lockdown and restrictions put in place to stop the spread of the virus.
Topic:
Law, European Union, Crisis Management, Institutions, Public Health, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe

219. COVID-19: Lessons from the ‘euro crisis’

Author:
Fabian Zuleeg and Janis Emmanouilidis
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre
Abstract:
As the EU – and the world beyond – continues to grapple with the COVID-19 pandemic, Janis A. Emmanouilidis and Fabian Zuleeg look back at a previous time of intense pressure and discord in the Union, the euro crisis, to glean valuable lessons and traps to avoid. They argue that the EU cannot afford to stall the process of unconditional solidarity any further. The legitimacy of the Union is at stake. The 2010-2015 euro crisis already highlighted the implications of a highly interdependent Union; the importance of acting quickly, forcefully and boldly; and the need to roll out decisive joint action and an effective European strategy. Emmanouilidis and Zuleeg apply these lessons to today’s health crisis to remind European, national and regional leaders that we stand together, and fall together. Unconditional solidarity guided by the principle of enlightened self-interest will be the Union’s answer to the crisis. Secondly, the EU should act early and forcefully if they are to get ahead of the curve. The Union should thus jointly set up and finance a common COVID-19 recovery and growth fund, and then implement a coordinated European ‘exit management strategy’. Rather than concentrating on one particular instrument, the EU institutions should assemble a convincing package deal that is explicitly supported by member states. Finally, all EU leaders must recognise that absolutist positions will undermine the search for an effective European strategy to manage and eventually overcome the COVID-19 crisis. Disunity, fragmentation and distrust will result in failure – not only for the crisis but also for the foundation of the Union itself.
Topic:
European Union, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

220. COVID-19: A turning point for the EU?

Author:
Herman Van Rompuy
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre
Abstract:
President Emeritus of the European Council Herman Van Rompuy weighs up the long-term lessons we should take away from the ongoing corona crisis. He looks at the impact of COVID-19, and the quarantine measures many governments have subsequently taken to stop its spread, on our economy and societies, on the fate of multilateralism, and the fight against inequality and global warming. Honestly assessing the response of the European Union, EPC President Van Rompuy finds a hopeful development in the compromise the Eurogroup was able to find on 9 April but argues that it is just a first step. He also warns of the ghosts of crises past. Old rivalries and national prejudices are rearing their heads again, and not only will it prevent the EU member states from finding a way out of the crisis but it could also be detrimental for the Union in the long run.
Topic:
European Union, Economy, Crisis Management, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe