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91. R2P Monitor, Issue 36, 15 November 2017

Author:
Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the Responsibility to Protect lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 36 looks at developments in Myanmar (Burma), Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, South Sudan, Central African Republic, Sudan, Burundi, Philippines, Afghanistan and Somalia.
Topic:
Human Rights, International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, Sudan, Philippines, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Syria, Somalia, Burundi, Myanmar, South Sudan, and Central African Republic

92. R2P Monitor, Issue 35, 15 September 2017

Author:
Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the Responsibility to Protect lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 35 looks at developments in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Myanmar (Burma), South Sudan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Central African Republic, Sudan, Burundi, Philippines, Afghanistan and Somalia.
Topic:
Human Rights, International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, Sudan, Philippines, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Syria, Somalia, Burundi, Myanmar, South Sudan, and Central African Republic

93. R2P Monitor, Issue 34, 15 July 2017

Author:
Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the Responsibility to Protect lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 34 looks at developments in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Sudan, Myanmar (Burma), South Sudan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Philippines and Kenya.
Topic:
Human Rights, International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
Political Geography:
Kenya, Iraq, Sudan, Philippines, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Syria, Burundi, Myanmar, and South Sudan

94. R2P Monitor, Issue 33, 15 May 2017

Author:
Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the Responsibility to Protect lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 33 looks at developments in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Sudan, Myanmar (Burma) , South Sudan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Philippines and Central African Republic.
Topic:
Human Rights, International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
Political Geography:
Iraq, Sudan, Philippines, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Syria, Burundi, Myanmar, South Sudan, and Central African Republic

95. R2P Monitor, Issue 32, 15 March 2017

Author:
Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the Responsibility to Protect lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 32 looks at developments in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Sudan, Myanmar, South Sudan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Philippines and Central African Republic. Issue 32 also includes an insert regarding states that have endorsed the Kigali Principles on the Protection of Civilians. For more information on the Kigali Principles, see: Improving Peacekeeping and Civilian Protection.
Topic:
Human Rights, International Law, Peacekeeping, Civilians, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
Political Geography:
Iraq, Sudan, Philippines, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Syria, Burundi, Myanmar, South Sudan, and Central African Republic

96. R2P Monitor, Issue 31, 15 January 2017

Author:
Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
R2P Monitor is a bimonthly bulletin applying the Responsibility to Protect lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 31 looks at developments in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Sudan, Myanmar (Burma), South Sudan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Philippines, Central African Republic and Nigeria.
Topic:
Human Rights, International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
Political Geography:
Iraq, Sudan, Philippines, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Syria, Nigeria, Burundi, Myanmar, South Sudan, and Central African Republic

97. Protecting Syrian Civilians: The Road Not Taken

Author:
Frederic C. Hof
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
During 70 months of chaos in Syria, the United States had protected not one Syrian civilian from the homicidal rampages of Bashar al-Assad and his remorseless regime. Yes, America had come militarily to the aid of Syrian Kurds besieged by ISIS (ISIL, Daesh, Islamic State). Yet the United States had protected no one in Syria from an Iranian client regime’s campaign of civilian mass homicide. The consequences were profoundly negative for Syrians, their neighbors, Western Europe, and the United States. And they were avoidable. The road taken by the Obama administration unintentionally but inevitably facilitated a humanitarian and geopolitical disaster. The road not taken would have required complicating, frustrating, slowing, and perhaps even stopping the mass murder of defenseless civilians. To be sure: it would not have been easy. But its avoidance has been catastrophic. Indeed, nothing about Syria has been easy: no silver bullets to fire, no fairy dust to sprinkle, and no magic potions to ingest. Choices between bad and worse have dominated from the beginning. They have grown starker and uglier over time largely because of the road taken.
Topic:
Islamic State, Syrian War, Civilians, Atrocities, and Protection
Political Geography:
Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

98. Critical Junctures in United States Policy toward Syria: An Assessment of the Counterfactuals

Author:
Mona Yacoubian
Publication Date:
08-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
More than any other foreign policy crisis during the Obama administration’s eight years, the Syrian conflict has engendered enormous debate about what the United States might have done differently: Could this catastrophe have been avoided? In particular, might different decisions at critical junctures in US policy debates have diminished the level of killing and atrocities? This paper explores these questions based primarily on interviews with former US officials and nongovernmental Syria experts.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Syrian War, Atrocities, Chemical Weapons, Bashar al-Assad, Containment, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:
Middle East, Syria, North America, and United States of America

99. Subsidizing Rebels, Taxing Atrocities: Saving Lives in Civil Wars

Author:
Andrew Kydd
Publication Date:
08-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
The Syrian civil war has lasted over five years and has resulted in the deaths of over 400,000 civilians. The relatively restrained policy of the US toward Syria has sometimes been criticized as inadequate. Would a limited intervention motivated by humanitarian concerns have reduced the death toll at an acceptable cost? Limited intervention would affect the conflict primarily by strengthening the rebel side and raising the cost to the regime of attacking civilians. I show using a game theoretic model that fostering a balance of power between the government and the rebels would only lead the government to commit more atrocities and prolong the war. Raising the cost to the government of committing atrocities, however, could be beneficial under certain conditions. I then discuss four policy options considered during the Obama administration and assess their likely effects.
Topic:
Civil War, Syrian War, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), Atrocities, Game Theory, and Intervention
Political Geography:
Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

100. An Agent-Based Model of Counterfactual Opportunities for Reducing Atrocities in Syria, 2011 - 2014

Author:
Ian Lustick, Miguel Garces, and Thomas McCauley
Publication Date:
08-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
Computer-assisted agent-based modeling (ABM) allows us to examine not just history as it happened but history as it could have happened. This ability opens opportunities for causal analysis of variations in atrocities against civilians or in the conditions believed to make civilian atrocities much more likely. Once different pathways into the future from the same set of antecedent conditions are traceable, analysis of large numbers of stochastically perturbed model runs can aid in the evaluation of alternative causal stories. This technique has the potential to test arguments about which factors may have been crucial in determining outcomes, which junctures were critical, and which mitigation strategies would have been preferable, for what reasons. But in applying available ABM simulation technology to the problem of assessing opportunities for mitigating threats of large-scale civilian atrocities, how practical, direct, and useful would the results be? This general question was translated, in this pilot project, into an exploration of the extent to which an agent-based model of Syria, tuned to 2010, could illuminate the likely effects of plausible policies that the US government could have enacted or contributed to at critical junctures in the Syrian conflict. As described in part 2 of this report, we built an agent-based model of Syria tuned to 2010, allowing us to experiment with the state space of Syria’s past from 2011 to 2015. A key objective was to assess the reasonableness of a variety of contemporaneous policy prescriptions made by decision makers and strategies suggested by informed observers. The counterfactual scenarios for mitigating civilian atrocities in Syria were identified with critical junctures— episodes or states of affairs, at particular points in time, that have been identified as potentially significant bifurcation points leading toward or away from conditions liable to produce high levels of civilian atrocities. Particular attention was paid to the manner in which those junctures were or could have been influenced by US policy choices. However, given the limits of the model as a pilot project, which focused on Syria and not on the region or the world, considerable variation exists—across the five critical junctures examined—in the extent to which US policies (or their absence) can be understood as being potentially implicated in the path the “real” Syria followed.
Topic:
History, Syrian War, Atrocities, Counterfactuals, and Models
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria