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231. Labor in the Age of Automation and Artificial Intelligence

Author:
Anton Korinek
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP)
Abstract:
As technology advanced in recent decades, it increasingly left workers behind and led to sharp increases in inequality. The current wave of progress in artificial intelligence is likely to accelerate these trends. This note lays out three complementary approaches to countering these developments. Firstly, since technological progress generates net gains for society as a whole, the winners could in principle compensate the losers and still be better off. Secondly, progress should be steered to minimize the losses of workers. Thirdly, there is an important role for government intervention in information technology to thwart the rise of monopolies that extract rents from society. The note concludes with some speculations on the impact of artificial intelligence increasingly rivaling human labor.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, Labor Issues, Economic Policy, Macroeconomics, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
United States

232. No Data in the Void: Values and Distributional Conflicts in Empirical Policy Research and Artificial Intelligence

Author:
Maximilian Kasy
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP)
Abstract:
Decision making based on data - whether by policymakers drawing on empirical research, or by algorithms using machine learning - is becoming ever more widespread. Any time such decisions are made, we need to carefully think about the goals we want to achieve, and the policies we might possibly use to achieve them. Data cannot absolve us of this responsibility. They do not allow us to avoid value judgements, and do not relieve us from taking sides in distributional conflicts. This essay introduces a general framework to clarify this point, and then discusses a series of settings in which the choice of objectives (goals) has far-reaching and maybe unexpected implications.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, Labor Policies, Economic Policy, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
United States

233. The Rise of Russia’s Hi-Tech Military

Author:
Samuel Bendett
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
Following the end of the Cold War, the Russian Federation lagged behind the United States in terms of advanced technology in warfighting. However, after substantial spending on modernization starting in 2008, the Russian military and the nation’s defense sector have been making great strides at developing remotely operated and autonomous technologies and integrating them in their tactics and combat operations. Russia is also starting to invest in Artificial Intelligence (AI) development with specific military applications. These developments affect the ability of the United States to meet the goals in its new National Security Strategy; in order to meet its stated December 2017 objective of renewing American competitive advantage in key military areas, the United States should be aware of key adversarial developments such as Russia’s emerging unmanned, autonomous, and AI capabilities, and prepare itself in terms of appropriate capabilities, tactics, and plans...
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, Military Affairs, Military Spending, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, and United States of America

234. IFPA National Security Update 10: The Military Applications and Use of Artificial Intelligence

Author:
Jack Kelly
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis (IFPA)
Abstract:
This IFPA National Security Update examines artificial intelligence (AI),with a focus on its status, military applications, benefits, and shortcomings; competition with China and Russia to develop AI technologies; the Trump Administration’s AI Executive Order; and the need for the United States government to develop strategies and acquisition approaches to harness/leverage more effectively the AI innovations and applications being developed primarily in the U.S. commercial sector. In early 2017, the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis initiated an online series entitled National Security Update. Its purpose is to examine key foreign policy/defense issues and to set forth policy options. These updates are made available to the broad policy community within and outside government, including key policy makers in Washington, D.C.; members of Congress and their staffs; academic specialists; and other members of the private-sector security community. Future National Security Updates will address a range of topics in an effort to provide timely analyses and policy options.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, Science and Technology, Military Strategy, Artificial Intelligence, and Private Sector
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

235. “Autonomisation” of security and defence systems

Author:
Artur Kuptel
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
Development of systems with an evolving level of autonomy is among the most controversial and yet promising aspects of military forces’ modernisation. The application of quasi- artificial intelligence in combat machines opens a new uncharted area of possibilities. In essence, these modifications aim to reduce the extent of human interference in the functioning of unmanned systems virtually to none. The potential risks are explored in dangerous scenarios, which consider that apart from offering far-reaching advantages of using platforms with autonomic capabilities, they can be used against humanity. These scenarios assume a pivotal role in forecasting possible directions for development of the armed forces. This paper attempts to determine the essence of combat systems autonomy while focusing on a few of the most sensitive issues. For a transparent and credible debate on combat systems autonomy, it is adviseable that no ambiguity is present in terminological, ethical, legal and technological complexities, whose misinterpretation may become a source of unnecessary understatements or even lead to distortion of the debate.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Armed Forces, Artificial Intelligence, and Autonomy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

236. Artificial Intelligence on the Battlefield: Implications for Deterrence and Surprise

Author:
Zachary Davis
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
PRISM
Institution:
Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:
Predicting the future of technology is a risky business. We know with certainty that AI is being incorporated into an array of military missions with the intent of improving our knowledge of the operational environment, adversary capabilities, and the speed and precision of offensive and defensive weapons. We can usefully speculate about how these developments are poised to change the face of modern warfare and how those changes might affect regional and strategic deterrence stability, based on our understanding of established political and military realities. More elusive, however, is a clear picture of how AI might converge with other technologies to produce unexpected outcomes, or “unknown unknowns.” Nevertheless, there are a few possibilities that could have major strategic consequences and alter the underlying realities on which regional and strategic stability are founded.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Military Strategy, Artificial Intelligence, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

237. The Digital Maginot Line: Autonomous Warfare and Strategic Incoherence

Author:
Michael P. Ferguson
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
PRISM
Institution:
Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:
Just as the Maginot Line created an illusion of security, guaranteed standoff, and physical protection that made its shattering during the blitzkrieg of 1940 all the more shocking to the French polity, the pursuit of militarized robotics and autonomous systems (RAS) and artificial intelligence (AI) has led many to believe that the key to a more efficient and secure future lay within these technologies. The United States Armed Forces owe themselves and their civilian leaders honesty regarding a prudent approach to integrating AI and a pragmatic vision of the threats and risks associated with relying on these systems to achieve future policy goals.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Military Strategy, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

238. Automation and AI: Implications for African Development Prospects?

Author:
Charles Kenny
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
Now that computers are capable of taking the jobs that require brain as well as brawn, it may appear there is little left for humans to do. There are many scary forecasts of the capacity of automation and AI to replace a lot of workers very fast. Self-driving vehicles may wipe out opportunities for taxi driv- ers and truckers, for example. Brynjolfsson, Rock, and Syverson note there are 3.5 million people em- ployed driving vehicles in the US. If automation reduced that to 1.5 million, that alone would increase total US labor productivity by 1.7 percent,1 but it would also leave two million drivers looking for work. In 2013, Oxford economists Carl Frey and Michael Osborne made waves by predicting that 47 percent of US employment was automatable over the next two decades, with a higher estimate for developing countries.2 Erin Winick of Technology Review subsequently produced a summary table of job losses and gains estimations on automation.3 Some of the worldwide figures are in Table 1. There are clearly two sides to the ledger, but some of the predicted job loss numbers at the global level are considerable. The forecasts suggest bad news for Africa in particular, given concentration in types of low-skill jobs that might be easy to automate, rising working age populations, and already far too few good jobs to occupy the existing population. Arntz et al. suggest the share of workers at high risk of automation is 40 percent amongst those with a lower secondary education and above 50 percent for those with primary or less education.4 Advanced manufacturing and AI applications including automated call centers might even reverse the trend towards manufacturing and low-skilled services moving to developing countries. That would imperil a recent run of global income convergence. And there have been cases of impact al- ready: Foxconn replacing 30 percent of its workforce when it introduced robots, and 1,000 lost jobs in Vietnam when Adidas shuttered a factory and moved production to “speed factories” in Germany and the US. If this is the beginning of a trend, it would be harmful to African development prospects.
Topic:
Development, Science and Technology, Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and Emerging Technology
Political Geography:
Africa

239. The Role of the Ethical Underpinnings of International Humanitarian Law in the Age of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems

Author:
Kaja Kowalczewska
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
This paper presents selected conclusions related to the theoretical underpinnings of international humanitarian law, with special focus on the understanding of considerations of humanity and the dictates of public conscience (the Martens clause) and their impact on the regulation of lethal autonomous weapons systems. Despite the fact that different positions can be found in the doctrine, it is argued herein that the general principles of international humanitarian law are not sufficient to properly regulate the disruptive military technologies (new means and methods of warfare) and a new international norm is needed. Consequently, the paper agglomerates extra-legal and cross-cutting arguments stemming from other normative regimes that point to prioritization of the value of human life and the role and quality of the human factor in decision-making procedures relating to the health and life of victims of modern armed conflicts, which should be incorporated in it.
Topic:
Law, Ethics, Weapons, Artificial Intelligence, Humanitarian Crisis, and Emerging Technology
Political Geography:
Global Focus

240. Worker Training Tax Credit: Promoting Employer Investments in the Workforce

Author:
Alastair Fitzpayne and Ethan Pollack
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Rapid advances in technology, including artificial intelligence and automation, are transforming industries and reshaping the skills necessary to secure and keep a job. In response, U.S. workers will need to acquire skills that are not easily automated or that complement ever-changing technology. Yet, data suggest an alarming trend: there is a steady decline in the amount employers are investing in their workforce.[1] Federal and state policymakers should consider using tax incentives to encourage additional workforce training investments. To accomplish this, in May 2017 the Future of Work Initiative proposed the Worker Training Tax Credit. Modeled on the popular Research and Development (R&D) Tax Credit, this new tax credit could be used by small and large businesses to invest in training for their low- and middle-income workers. Based on economic modeling recently conducted by District Economics Group, the Worker Training Tax Credit would cost roughly $146.5 million over ten years, and lead businesses to increase training investments by 8.5 percent. Because the tax credit excludes training provided to high-income workers, these induced training investments would provide greater opportunity to low- and middle-income workers.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Employment, Tax Systems, Artificial Intelligence, and Skilled Labor
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America