Search

Begin New Search Topic Arms Control and Proliferation Publication Year within 25 Years

241. The Erosion of Strategic Stability and the Future of Arms Control in Europe

Author:
Corentin Brustlein
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
The instruments of cooperative security created during and since the Cold War to foster mutual confidence and reduce the risks of war, inadvertent escalation, and arms races, in and around Europe, have come under increasing strain. The European security architecture has been – and is being – weakened by renewed geopolitical competition, technological and military developments, and states violating or bypassing international law, or walking away from previous commitments. Against this backdrop, it is crucial to reassess the meaning and requirements of crisis and strategic stability in Europe. This report looks at some current and future sources of strategic instability, and focuses in particular on how the Russian way of waging modern conflict could, through the importance given to strategic ambiguity and operational opacity, fuel escalatory dynamics in Europe. It argues that strengthening strategic stability in Europe requires a two-pronged approach, combining a sustained effort to reinforce deterrence and defense in Europe with new confidence- and security-building and arms control measures to reduce reciprocal fears, incentives to escalate rapidly during a crisis, and risks of conventional and nuclear war in Europe.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

242. Arms Control as Uncertainty Management

Author:
Amy J. Nelson
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
Abstract:
For decades or longer, policy-makers have sought to use arms control to reduce the uncertainty endemic to the international security environment. Because uncertainty is pervasive in these situations, however, practitioners themselves are naturally vulnerable to its effects. This paper seeks to help policy-makers optimize arms control outcomes by providing improved theory and best practices for goal-setting and strategy selection using the judicious application of decision theoretic concepts. The paper first lays out a suitable role for decision theory in the study and analysis of arms control, arguing that “uncertainty” is a more appropriate concept for description and analysis here than is “risk.” Prior approaches that rely on “risk” have tended to drive the search for arms control best practices, but “risk” requires the use of probability estimates that are frequently not available or not a good indicator of potential outcomes. Second, the paper argues that decision-makers are vulnerable to the effects of missing information and the uncertainty it causes in the run-up to and during arms control negotiations. Consequently, they are subject to biases and resort to the use of security-specific heuristics, including worst-case scenario thinking, limited-theater-of-war thinking, and low-dimension (or non-complex) thinking when setting goals and employing strategies for negotiating arms control agreements. The paper discusses the origins of this uncertainty and the strategies that states could employ as a result of these security-specific heuristics, arguing that they can best be grouped into two types—risk reduction versus uncertainty management. Finally, the paper makes recommendations for optimizing outcomes—for getting efficient negotiations that result in robust, durable agreements, capable of managing uncertainty about security, despite the effects of missing information.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

243. Capital of Militias: Tripoli's Armed Groups Capture the Libyan State

Author:
Wolfram Lacher
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
Since the arrival of the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli in March 2016, four large local militias have gradually divided up the capital between themselves. Though nominally loyal to the government, they now exert a degree of influence over state institutions and resources that is unprecedented in post-Qaddafi Libya. This Paper examines the rise of a militia cartel in Tripoli, and concludes that the situation is untenable, as it risks provoking a major new conflict over Tripoli fought by those who have been excluded from access to the state and impedes efforts to establish a meaningful unity government
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Libya

244. At the Crossroads of Sahelian Conflicts: Insecurity, Terrorism, and Arms Trafficking in Niger

Author:
Savannah de Tessières
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
This Report from the Small Arms Survey’s Security Assessment in North Africa (SANA) project examines insecurity, terrorism, and trafficking in Niger.The Sahel hosts multiple conflicts with myriad armed actors destabilizing the entire region. Positioned at the heart of this region, Niger sits at the crossroads of terrorism, trafficking, and conflict. The Nigerien state has great difficulty in guaranteeing domestic security, which has a devastating impact on social and economic development, in addition to it reinforcing tensions and fueling local conflicts. Older tensions become locked into new insecurity dynamics, such as terrorism, further complicating any future resolutions. Armed banditry, trafficking of weapons and drugs, violent community disputes, and the rise in terrorist attacks are all symptomatic of the State’s struggles. At the Crossroads of Sahelian Conflicts: Insecurity, Terrorism, and Arms Trafficking in Niger, authored by Savannah de Tessières, a senior consultant to the Survey, draws on extensive fieldwork in the regions of Agadez, Diffa, and Niamey. This included examinations of arms and ammunition seized across the country, as well as dozens of interviews with national and international government and security officials, civil society representatives, gold diggers, former rebels, and other experts.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Terrorism, and Arms Trade
Political Geography:
Africa, North Africa, Sahel, and Niger

245. From Legal to Lethal: Converted Firearms in Europe

Author:
Nicolas Florquin and Benjamin King
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
Criminals purchase weapons unable to fire live ammunition legally and at low costs across Europe, converting them into lethal firearms with little to no training or expertise. The Small Arms Survey report From Legal to Lethal: Converted Firearms in Europe provides a detailed examination on the topic. Users of converted firearms include petty criminals, organized crime groups, and terrorist actors. Certain conversion techniques require some level of technical skills, but converters also make use of online, open-source tutorials to convert weapons relatively easily. While Europe has faced a range of converted weapons over the past decades, two main types of readily convertible firearms have entered into the illicit arms market in recent years: Slovak-origin acoustic expansion weapons (AEWs)—as used by Amedy Coulibaly in the Montrouge and Hypercacher Paris attacks in 2015; and Turkish-manufactured alarm pistols—currently the most prevalent converted firearm in Europe. Smuggling these weapons to and within Europe involves: ant trafficking: the movement of small-scale shipments of converted and converted-to-be weapons across borders, typically involving fewer than a dozen firearms per shipment, which are transported in private vehicles, boats, or buses; and online trade and the use of parcel and postal services: the procurement of deactivated or imitation firearms or their parts and components online, shipped through parcel and postal services. Strengthened European Union regulations and coordinated law enforcement operations have succeeded in reducing some specific sources of converted firearms but these efforts have been mainly reactive, and existing record-keeping systems and statistics do not always allow for the sufficient monitoring of trends to enable early warning of new threats. The European experience in dealing with the issue of converted weapons is relevant beyond the continent as it is clear that the proliferation of these firearms takes place in other global sub-regions as well.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Terrorism, Weapons, and Arms Trade
Political Geography:
Europe

246. Implementing the Programme of Action and International Tracing Instrument: An Assessment of National Reports, 2012–17

Author:
Paul Holtom and Moshe Ben Hamo Yeger
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
In preparation for the Third Review Conference (RevCon3) to review progress made in the implementation of the Programme of Action to Prevent, Combat and Eradicate the Illicit Trade in Small Arms and Light Weapons in All Its Aspects (PoA) and the International Tracing Instrument (ITI), the Small Arms Survey released Implementing the Programme of Action and International Tracing Instrument: An Assessment of National Reports, 2012–17, a study presenting a comprehensive analysis of national reports on PoA and ITI implementation submitted during 2012–17. It identifies the current state of play, progress in implementation, and assistance opportunities.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Regulation, and Trade
Political Geography:
Global Focus

247. Beyond State Control: Improvised and Craft-produced Small Arms and Light Weapons

Author:
G. Hays and N.R. Jenzen-Jones
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
Although the number of craft-produced small arms and light weapons is difficult to estimate, they are prevalent and range broadly in sophistication and quality. Improvised and craft-produced firearms remain an important source of firepower for a wide range of actors, including tribal groups, poachers, criminals, insurgent groups, and even some states and quasi-state groups. In various locations, these weapons account for most of the firearms used in crime; in others, their production is institutionalized, providing essential income for local gunsmiths. Criminals outside of active conflict zones, especially in developing states and territories, appear to hold the highest concentrations of craft-produced small arms. In several countries, such firearms account for a sizable proportion of weapons seized in law enforcement operations. The vast majority of improvised and craft-produced weapons cannot be easily traced, although certain forensic and investigative techniques show promise in closing this gap. Beyond State Control: Improvised and Craft-produced Small Arms and Light Weapons provides an overview of the nature and scale of production, acquisition patterns, and implications for law enforcement and policy.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Crime, Law Enforcement, Weapons, and Arms Trade
Political Geography:
Global Focus

248. Trade Update 2018: Sub-Saharan Africa in Focus

Author:
Paul Holtom and Irene Pavesi
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
The 2018 edition of the Small Arms Survey’s Trade Update—analyzing the small arms authorized trade in 2015—finds that the global authorized small arms trade was worth at least USD 5.7 billion in 2015, with small arms ammunition exports valued at USD 2.3 billion. The total value represents a seven per cent decrease between 2014 and 2015, mostly due to a USD 198 million decline in exports by top exporting countries the United States, Brazil, and Italy. Sub-Saharan Africa suffers disproportionately from the negative impacts of small arms and ammunition flows on peace, security, stability, and development, yet it only accounts for less than five per cent of the estimated value of the authorized global small arms trade. Due to historically low levels of openness regarding sub-Saharan African small arms production and transfers, identifying major African importers and exporters—as well as suppliers—remains a challenge. Trade Update 2018: Sub-Saharan Africa in Focus uses multiple open sources to tentatively map major sub-Saharan African producers, exporters, and importers of small arms. The Small Arms Survey identified that at least 15 sub-Saharan African states industrially produce small arms and/or ammunition, namely: Angola, Cameroon, Chad, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Mali, Namibia, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zimbabwe. Official data indicates that South Africa was the largest sub-Saharan African exporter and importer of small arms during 2013–15. Significant importers during this period include: Angola, Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, Malawi, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, and Uganda. The largest transparent small arms exporters to sub-Saharan Africa for 2013–15 appear to be Bulgaria, Serbia, France, Spain, and Italy, in descending order of importance. Exporters such as China, the Russian Federation, and Turkey also concluded significant deals to supply small arms to sub-Saharan Africa during this period.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Development, Political stability, Arms Trade, Peace, and Trade
Political Geography:
Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

249. Lost in Trans-nation: Tubu and Other Armed Groups and Smugglers along Libya's Southern Border

Author:
Jérôme Tubiana and Claudio Gramizzi
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
Southern Libya after the fall of Qaddafi has become synonymous with lawlessness. For centuries, the area has been home to a shifting sea of ethnic groups who see the border as an imposition but not a barrier. The Tubu (or Teda) are one such group, whose presence stretches across southern Libya, Chad, and Niger. In Lost in Trans-Nation: Tubu and Other Armed Groups and Smugglers along Libya’s Southern Border, the Small Arms Survey explores the role of Tubu militias before and since the fall of the Qaddafi regime; the roles and alliances of Chadian and Sudanese combatants in the border area; the Agadez–Fezzan corridor, placing particular weight on recent changes in migrant smuggling and drug trafficking; and data and analysis of regional weapons flows. Authored by researchers Jérôme Tubiana and Claudio Gramizzi, Lost in Trans-Nation is a joint publication of the Small Arms Survey’s Security Assessment in North Africa (SANA) and Human Security Baseline Assessment (HSBA) projects, in cooperation with Conflict Armament Research, and builds on the 2017 report Tubu Trouble: State and Statelessness in the Chad–Sudan–Libya Triangle by the same authors and organizations.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Arms Trade, Trafficking, and Smuggling
Political Geography:
Africa, Libya, Chad, and Niger

250. Revitalizing Diplomatic Efforts to Advance CTBT Entry Into Force

Author:
Daryl G. Kimball
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Arms Control Association
Abstract:
More than two decades after the opening for signature of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), the treaty has near universal support and has established a global norm against nuclear test explosions. The nuclear testing taboo impedes the development of new and more advanced nuclear warhead designs, which helps prevent dangerous nuclear competition, and maintain international security. Although the CTBT has created a norm against testing and a robust technical organization responsible for the operation and maintenance of a highly sensitive global nuclear test monitoring system, the treaty has not entered into force due to the failure of eight key states, including the United States and China, to ratify. The CTBT is and will continue to be an essential pillar in the global nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament enterprise. Moving closer to the goal of the CTBT’s formal entry into force is the task of every CTBT state party, every nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) state-party, every state that supports the new Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, and any other state that considers itself a “responsible” nuclear actor. But in order to realize the full potential of the treaty and to close the door on testing, friends of the CTBT will need to rejuvenate and update their efforts to achieve its entry into force and reinforce the taboo against nuclear testing.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and Nonproliferation
Political Geography:
Global Focus