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171. Motives for Martyrdom: Al-Qaida, Salafi Jihad, and the Spread of Suicide Attacks

Author:
Assaf Moghadam
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Security
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Suicide missions made their modern debut in 1981. In recent years, however, they have witnessed an unprecedented increase according to several indicators, including number of attacks, number of organizations conducting these attacks, number of countries targeted, and number of victims. Existing explanations, including the occupation and outbidding theses, cannot account for the dramatic increase and spread of suicide attacks. A combination of quantitative and qualitative methods, including analysis of a data set of 1,857 suicide attacks from December 1981 through March 2008, suggests that two interrelated factors have contributed to the "globalization of martyrdom": al-Qaida's evolution into a global terrorist actor and the growing appeal of its guiding ideology, Salafi jihad. As localized patterns of suicide missions have given way to more globalized patterns, states must rethink their counterterrorism strategies. At the same time, because Salafi jihadist groups tend to target Muslims, moderate Muslims and nonviolent Salafists must take the lead in challenging these groups.
Topic:
Globalization

172. Spoiling Inside and Out: Internal Political Contestation and the Middle East Peace Process

Author:
Wendy Pearlman
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Security
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Of the thirty-eight peace accords signed between 1988 and 1998, thirty-one failed to last more than three years. Contributing to their failure was the behavior of so-called spoilers: those who use violence or other means to undermine negotiations in the expectation that a settlement will threaten their power or interests. The stakes for understanding spoiler behavior are high. Where parties kept spoilers at bay, such as in Guatemala and South Africa, years of bloody conflict gave way to successful transitions to peace and democracy. Where spoilers proved triumphant, such as in Angola and Rwanda, the violence ensuing after a peace accord failed was more horrific than what had preceded it.
Political Geography:
Middle East, South Africa, Rwanda, Angola, and Guatemala

173. When Right Makes Might: How Prussia Overturned the European Balance of Power

Author:
Stacie Goddard
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Security
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
From 1864 to 1871, Prussia mounted a series of wars that fundamentally altered the balance of power in Europe. Yet no coalition emerged to check Prussia's rise. Rather than balance against Prussian expansion, the great powers sat on the sidelines and allowed the transformation of European politics. Traditionally, scholars have emphasized structural variables, such as mulitpolarity, or domestic politics as the cause of this "underbalancing." It was Prussia's legitimation strategies, however -- the way Prussia justified its expansion -- that undermined a potential balancing coalition. As Prussia expanded, it appealed to shared rules and norms, strategically choosing rhetoric that would resonate with each of the great powers. These legitimation strategies undermined balancing coalitions through three mechanisms: by signaling constraint, laying rhetorical traps (i.e., framing territorial expansion in a way that deprived others states grounds on which to resist), and increasing ontological security (i.e., demonstrating its need to secure its identity in international politics), Prussia effectively expanded without opposition. An analysis of Prussia's expansion in 1864 demonstrates how legitimation strategies prevented the creation of a balancing coalition.
Topic:
Security and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and Prussia

174. Linkage Diplomacy: Economic and Security Bargaining in the Anglo-Japanese Alliance, 1902-23

Author:
Christina L. Davis
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Security
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
How do states use economic-security linkages in international bargaining? Governments can provide economic benefits as a side payment to reinforce security cooperation and use close security ties as a source of bargaining leverage in economic negotiations. Domestic political pressures, however, may constrain the form of linkage. First, economic side payments are more likely to be chosen in areas that will not harm the key interests of the ruling party. Second, involvement by the legislature pushes governments toward using security ties as bargaining leverage for economic gains. Evidence from negotiations between Britain and Japan during the Anglo-Japanese alliance of 1902 to 1923 supports the constraining role of domestic politics. Economic-security linkages occurred as Britain gave favorable economic treatment to Japan in order to strengthen the alliance. Economic competition between the allies, however, made it difficult for Britain to grant asymmetrical economic benefits. In tariff negotiations where business interests had more influence in the domestic policy process, the alliance was used as leverage to force reciprocity.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Britain and Japan

175. Bad Debts: Assessing China's Financial Influence in Great Power Politics

Author:
Daniel W. Drezner
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Security
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
China has challenged the United States on multiple policy fronts since the beginning of 2009. On the security dimension, Chinese ships have engaged in multiple skirmishes with U.S. surveillance vessels in an effort to hinder American efforts to collect naval intelligence. China has also pressed the United States on the economic policy front. Prime Minister Wen Jiabao told reporters that he was concerned about China's investments in the United States: “We have lent a huge amount of money to the U.S. Of course we are concerned about the safety of our assets. To be honest, I am definitely a little worried.” The head of the People's Bank of China, Zhou Xiaochuan, followed up with a white paper suggesting a shift away from the dollar as the world's reserve currency. China's government has issued repeated calls for a greater voice in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank. To bolster this call, Beijing helped to organize a summit of the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC) to better articulate this message.
Topic:
Security, Debt, Government, and Intelligence
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, India, and Brazil

176. China's Naval Nationalism: Sources, Prospects, and the U.S. Response

Author:
Robert Ross
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Security
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Recent developments in Chinese politics and defense policy indicate that China will soon embark on an ambitious maritime policy that will include construction of a power-projection navy centered on an aircraft carrier. But just as nationalism and the pursuit of status encouraged past land powers to seek great power maritime capabilities, widespread nationalism, growing social instability, and the leadership's concern for its political legitimacy drive China's naval ambition. China's maritime power, however, will be limited by the constraints experienced by all land powers: enduring challenges to Chinese territorial security and a corresponding commitment to a large ground force capability will constrain China's naval capabilities and its potential challenge to U.S. maritime security. Nonetheless, China's naval nationalism will challenge U.S.-China cooperation. It will likely elicit increased U.S. naval spending and deployments, as well as politicization of China policy in the United States, challenging the United States to develop policy to manage U.S.-China naval competition to allow for continued political cooperation.
Topic:
Politics
Political Geography:
United States and China

177. What's in a Line? Is Partition a Solution to Civil War?

Author:
Nicholas Sambanis and Jonah Schulhofer-Wohl
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Security
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
The debate over territorial partition as a solution to civil war is highly politically relevant. At the height of the Iraqi civil war in 2006 and 2007, faced with intensifying violence against civilians, mistrust among the main Sunni, Shiite, and Kurdish groups, and bleak prospects for state building, policymakers and analysts turned to ideas about partitioning the country. War-induced partitions and partition-induced wars continue to be prominent features in international security—two recent examples being the de facto partition of Kosovo from Serbia in 1999 followed by international recognition of Kosovo's independence in 2008, and the August 2008 war between Russia and Georgia following the latter's invasion of the separatist region of South Ossetia.
Political Geography:
Russia, Iraq, Kosovo, Serbia, Georgia, and South Ossetia

178. Transformative Choices: Leaders and the Origins of Intervention Strategy

Author:
Elizabeth N. Saunders
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Security
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
When and why do great powers seek to transform foreign institutions and societies through military interventions? What role does executive leadership play in influencing the choice of intervention strategy, especially the degree to which an intervention interferes in the domestic institutions of the target state? A typology of political leaders based on whether they believe that the internal characteristics of other states are the ultimate source of threats indicates that these threat perceptions shape the cost-benefit calculation leaders make when they confront intervention decisions; they also have important consequences for how states intervene. A comparison of the beliefs of President John F. Kennedy and President Lyndon B. Johnson, as well as their decisionmaking during the Vietnam War, illustrates how the theory operates. Elizabeth N. Saunders. "Transformative Choices: Leaders and the Origins of Intervention Strategy." International Security 34, no. 2 (Fall 2009): 119-161.
Political Geography:
Vietnam

179. Long Time Going: Religion and the Duration of Crusading

Author:
Michael Horowitz
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Security
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Scholars have argued for centuries about the relative importance of religion in determining behavior. Do actors with genuine religious beliefs, both leaders and foot soldiers, actually fight wars and commit atrocities in the name of religion and religious institutions? Or is religion a proxy for materialist variables such as land grabs or wealth creation? A case study of the Catholic Crusading movement and an evaluation of Crusading as an institution demonstrate that religiously motivated military campaigns, when decisive conclusions are not possible, may last longer than other campaigns because of the nonmaterial reasons for continuing to fight. Despite spectacular failures and rising costs, Crusading continued for centuries. The evidence shows that it is impossible to comprehend the persistence of Crusading over a several-hundred- year period without understanding the religious devotion at the heart of this institution. This research contributes to growing work in international relations on the importance of identity attributes and helps to explain how factors such as religion can influence processes such as crisis bargaining and war termination. Michael C. Horowitz. "Long Time Going: Religion and the Duration of Crusading." International Security 34, no. 2 (Fall 2009): 162-193.
Topic:
Security

180. Correspondence: Another Skirmish in the Battle over Democracies and War

Author:
Alexander B. Downes, Dan Reiter, and Allan Stam
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Security
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Dan Reiter and Allan C. Stam; Alexander B. Downes. "Correspondence: Another Skirmish in the Battle over Democracies and War." International Security 34, no. 2 (Fall 2009): 194.
Topic:
War