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42. Cautious Bully: Reputation, Resolve, and Beijing's Use of Coercion in the South China Sea
- Author:
- Ketian Zhang
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Security
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Since 1990, China has used coercion in its maritime territorial disputes in the South China Sea, despite adverse implications for its image. China is curiously selective in its timing, targets, and tools of coercion: China rarely employs military coercion, and it does not coerce all countries that pose similar threats. An examination of newly available primary documents and hundreds of hours of interviews with Chinese officials to trace the decisionmaking processes behind China's use and nonuse of coercion reveals a new theory of when, why, and how China employs coercion against other states, especially in the South China Sea. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the findings show that China is a cautious bully that does not use coercion frequently. In addition, when China becomes stronger, it tends to use military coercion less often, choosing instead nonmilitary tools. Moreover, concerns with its reputation for resolve and with economic cost are critical elements of Chinese decisionmaking regarding the costs and benefits of coercing its neighbors. China often coerces one target to deter others—“killing the chicken to scare the monkey.” These findings have important implications for how scholars understand states' coercive strategies and the future of Chinese behavior in the region and beyond.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, Military Affairs, and Maritime
- Political Geography:
- China, Beijing, and South China
43. Facing Up to China’s Military Interests in the Arctic
- Author:
- Anne Marie Brady
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- China Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- China’s military ambitions in the Arctic, and its growing strategic partnership with Russia, have rung alarm bells in many governments. In May 2019, for the first time, the U.S. Department of Defense annual report on China’s military capabilities had a section on China’s military interests in the Arctic and the possibility of Chinese submarines operating in the Arctic basin (Department of Defense, May 2019). In August 2019, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg raised concerns about what he diplomatically referred to as “China’s increased presence in the Arctic” (Reuters, August 7). From a nuclear security point of view, the Arctic is China’s vulnerable northern flank. The flight path of U.S. and Russian intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) targeted at China transit the Arctic. Key components of the U.S. missile defense system are also located in the Arctic. Chinese submarine-based ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) operating in the Arctic could restore China’s nuclear deterrence capability (Huanqiu Ribao, October 28, 2013). China currently operates six nuclear-powered attack submarines, four nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines, and fifty diesel attack submarines, with more under construction. If Chinese nuclear-armed submarines were able to access the Arctic basin undetected, this would be a game-changer for the United States, the NATO states and their partners, and the wider Asia-Pacific (Huanqiu Ribao, April 11, 2012). China would be able to target missiles at the United States and Europe with ease; such ability would strengthen China’s military dominance in Asia and bolster China’s emerging position as a global military power.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Territorial Disputes, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Asia, Arctic, and United States of America
44. The Prospects for Sino-Indian Relations During Modi’s Second Term
- Author:
- Sudha Ramachandran
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- China Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- On May 30, Narendra Modi was sworn in for a second term as India’s Prime Minister. Conspicuous by their absence at the inauguration ceremony were Imran Khan, the Prime Minister of Pakistan; Lobsang Sangay, President of the Central Tibetan Authority (CTA), more commonly known as the Tibetan government-in-exile; and Tien Chung-Kwang, Taiwan’s trade representative to India. While Khan was not invited on account of the serious deterioration in India-Pakistan relations since early this year, the absence of Sangay and Tien can be attributed to the Modi government adopting a more cautious approach to China in its second term. Modi’s administration seems keen to avoid needling the People’s Republic of China (PRC), especially at a time when Sino-Indian relations are improving (Deccan Herald, May 29). This caution on the part of India notwithstanding, Sino-Indian relations during Modi’s second term (scheduled to run through May 2024) are unlikely to be tension-free.
- Topic:
- Security, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Territorial Disputes
- Political Geography:
- China, India, Asia, and Tibet
45. Kashmir: The Major Source of Conflict between Pakistan and India
- Author:
- Abdul Majid, Shoukat Ali, Fazal Abbas, and Shazia Kousar
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- South Asian Studies
- Institution:
- Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
- Abstract:
- Kashmir is the most serious dispute between Pakistan and India that originated with the British decision to give independence to British India that later divided into two states i.e. Pakistan and India. Being a Muslim majority princely state, the people wanted to join Pakistan. However the non-Muslim ruler of Kashmir opted India. The people of Kashmir revolted against this decision which set the stage for the first Kashmir war between Pakistan and India. Since then India has maintained its control over Kashmir by use of force and a heavy presence of Indian security forces. India and Pakistan fought another war on Kashmir in 1965. Despite India’s coercive policies, Kashmiris continued to resist Indian domination. The current uprising in Kashmir is the latest manifestation of Kashmiri revolt against India. Pakistan and India need to hold talks for a peaceful resolution of Kashmir which is also acceptable to the Kashmiris. They do not want to live under Indian rule and want to decide about the future of Kashmir through plebiscite, as promised in the UN resolutions of 1948-49.
- Topic:
- United Nations, History, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, and Protests
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, United Kingdom, South Asia, India, and Kashmir
46. China’s Territorial Claim at South China Sea: A Strategic Competition with USA and its Implications
- Author:
- Kanwal Hayat and Rehana Saeed Hashmi
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- South Asian Studies
- Institution:
- Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
- Abstract:
- China claims South China Sea as its sovereign domain where it possesses the right to intervene militarily and economically. However, USA considers South China Sea as a common global passage where rule of law and freedom of navigation should prevail.These diverging viewpoints coexist in a wobbly peace environment where both US and China want their own version of international law to be applied and have occasionally resorted to minor armed conflicts over this issue. Every state claiming authority over South China Sea is willing to use coercion in order to get what they want, however, the extent of how far they are willing to go is not clear. This is resulting in a show of gunboat diplomacy involving maritime force of influential states that strives to manipulate the policy makers of the relevant nations (Costlow, 2012). The paper will focus on the situation in the South China Sea. South China Sea is not only claimed by China but various other Asian nations. Does this territorial strife possess the power to turn the region into a war zone? Being one of the most active trade routes in the world having complicated geography and the diverging regional and international interests makes it very sensitive area. China being the emerging economic giant gives competition to the USA in many spheres. Although America has no territorial claim in the South China Sea, it has strategic and economic interests. Where China wants a complete hegemonic control of the area, USA wants to find a way where free unchecked trade could be the future for all.Accompanied with numerous other South Asian nations claiming various portions of the region, a constant tension exists in the region.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Sovereignty, Territorial Disputes, Hegemony, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, United States of America, and Oceans
47. Strategic Stability in South Asia: Pakistan and the Challenges of Nuclear Deterrence
- Author:
- Muhammad Tehsin, Asif Ali, and Ghulam Qumber
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- South Asian Studies
- Institution:
- Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
- Abstract:
- The protracted conflict between the US and the former USSR demonstrated that deterrence stability is improved by détente. South Asia‟s environment is characterized by mutual hostility; conventional military balance tilting in favor of India; and lack of a transparent and nonaggressive nuclear doctrine. The aforementioned factors are the missing components of détente. Both the provocative Indian expansion in its nuclear weapons programme, and Pakistani retaliatory notion of the short-range weapons option, is problematic not only in the South Asian context, but also contradictory to the decades-long experience acquired during the Cold War. Pakistan and India must move towards nuclear CBMs, doctrinal clarity, and risk-reduction measures in the light of new technological advancements, and changing US role in the region.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, Territorial Disputes, Nuclear Power, Political stability, Grand Strategy, and Crisis Management
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, South Asia, India, Punjab, and United States of America
48. Swap-Shop: Time for a Deal in Kosovo?
- Author:
- Louis Sell
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- American Diplomacy
- Institution:
- American Diplomacy
- Abstract:
- The overwhelming majority of politically active Kosovo Albanians remain committed to a democratic vision of their country’s future, anchored by eventual membership in the EU and NATO. But many are losing faith in the EU’s institutional structure, which they view as having reneged on a promised to provide them visa-free entry and failing to provide a clear path toward membership. Kosovars retain a strong faith in the US, which they correctly see as primarily responsible for their liberation from Serbian oppression and as their only reliable ally in an increasingly dangerous Balkan environment.
- Topic:
- Development, Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, Balkans, United States of America, and European Union
49. The Kenya-Somalia Maritime Border Dispute: An Unnecessary Diplomatic Row?
- Author:
- Kizito Sabala
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Social Science Research Council
- Abstract:
- This briefing note examines the implications of the maritime border dispute between Kenya and Somalia following claims that Somalia has auctioned the oil and gas fields in the disputed territory, which are currently the subject of an International Court of Justice (ICJ) case at The Hague.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, Maritime, Conflict, and Borders
- Political Geography:
- Kenya, Africa, and Somalia
50. Russians Want Crimea; Prefer Luhansk and Donetsk Independent
- Author:
- Stepan Goncharov and Denis Volkov
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Chicago Council on Global Affairs
- Abstract:
- The conflict between Russia and Ukraine remains unresolved and—after five years—it does not appear to be reaching a resolution any time soon. The ongoing crisis in eastern Ukraine between the Ukrainian government and rebel forces supported by Moscow not only degrades the relationship between Kiev and Moscow but also contributes to the deteriorating relations between Russia and the West. [1] This particular regional conflict has become an important destabilizing factor for international security. Findings from a new binational survey, conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and the Levada Analytical Center, show that a plurality of Russians believe these eastern areas of Ukraine should be independent states.[2] And a majority of Russians continue to say that Russia’s annexation of Crimea has brought the country more good than harm.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, and Crisis Management
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Eurasia, Ukraine, and Crimea