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61. Moldova, land of the European Union's partnership mission

Author:
Florent Parmentier
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Sharing 939 kilometres of borders with Ukraine, Moldova is closest to the epicentre of the war that began on 24 February 2022. From the very first weeks onwards, the Moldovan authorities had to build reception facilities for Ukrainian refugees fleeing the fighting in the south and east of the country. In diplomatic and strategic terms, this war has also played a role in accelerating events, since in June 2022 Moldova was, against all expectations, recognised as candidate country to the European Union. The credit for this European rapprochement goes largely to the leadership team headed by President Maia Sandu. He later, with her party (Party of Action and Solidarity, PAS), has led the nation's dynamic forces along this demanding path of transformation, despite the many difficulties that the country faces. The war has already changed Moldova’s geopolitical situation, which has to contend with a great number of hybrid threats from Russia. In other words, beyond the success of the European Political Community Summit, organised at Castelul Mimi on 1 June last, and the many political signals received on this occasion, Moldova still needs assistance on the road to European transformation. This is why the Europeans decided to launch a partnership mission on 31 May last in Chisinau together with the High Representative Josep Borrell, the Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Affairs Minister Nicu Popescu and the then Home Affairs Minister, Ana Revenco.
Topic:
European Union, Partnerships, Regional Integration, Hybrid Threats, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, and Eastern Europe

62. Treaty revision: is Europe ready for a qualitative leap?

Author:
Dimitris Triantafyllou
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The discussion about a future revision of the European treaties[1] is back on the agenda. In June 2022, following the conference on the future of Europe, after consulting European citizens directly, presented its conclusions in May 2022, (including forty-nine proposals and three hundred and twenty-six concrete measures), the European Parliament called for the a Convention for the Revision of the Treaties. On 25 October 2023, the Committee on Constitutional Affairs (AFCO) suggested relaunching this call, with proposals for revision in a report due to be put to the vote at the plenary session of 20 to 23 November. A Franco-German Working Group published its recommendations on the same subject in September 2023. The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, seemed to support, or at least not rule out, the idea of a Convention in her "State of the Union" speeches in September 2022 and 2023. In a Manifesto dated 4 October 2023 some thirty leading figures from the world of European politics and academia advocated "progressive and pragmatic" federalism for the European Union. The idea of revising the Treaties is gradually gaining ground in view of a possible further enlargement of the European Union in the medium term. Depending on the state of political resolve[2], this is expected to take place against a turbulent geopolitical backdrop, marked by the Ukrainian and Israeli-Palestinian conflicts and threats to the European Union's direct neighbourhood. The dilemma between deepening and widening has resurfaced, to be addressed by an articulated combination of the two. This means preventing enlargement before the European Union has been strengthened by changes to the way it operates, thereby avoiding obstructions to decision-making. Although the current geopolitical situation is pushing for enlargement, the need to reform the European Union ought already have been considered in much more neutral terms. For several years now, states such as China and India have been gaining in power on the international stage, competing with the United States and potentially relegating the European Union to a secondary position in the world, both economically and politically. The challenges of climate change, demographics and immigration only exacerbate this risk. The EU needs to be strengthened, independently of and before any idea of enlargement. The prospect of enlargement only serves to accelerate the process, as the catalyst of reform that sets it in it motion.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Regional Integration, and Future
Political Geography:
Europe

63. An Analysis on the Regional Integration of Northeast Asia by Developing NARCI (Northeast Asia Regional Cooperation Index)

Author:
Ji Young Moon, Jehoon Park, and Sung-Hoon Park
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
This paper aims to develop an index to analyze regional cooperation in Northeast Asia, which is Northeast Asia Regional Cooperation Index(NARCI). NARCI evaluates intra-regional cooperation and integration in four areas, which are functional cooperation, politico-security cooperation, socio-cultural cooperation, and institutionalization, in order to identify the conflict and cooperation situation in the Northeast Asian region. The analysis of economic integration found that Northeast Asian regional cooperation is characterized by a high level of integration in goods trade and regional value chain cooperation, but a relatively low level of integration in intra-regional direct investment and energy supply chain cooperation. The analysis of the political and security cooperation shows that the intensification of U.S.-China competition and the factional confrontation between Korea, U.S., Japan, and North Korea, China, Russia have had a significant impact on regional cooperation in political and diplomatic security. The result shows that the level of integration is low, with all evaluation indicators being negative. The analysis of the socio-cultural integration shows a relatively low level of integration in civil society cooperation and intergovernmental exchanges, a relatively high level of integration in cultural and educational exchanges and study abroad, and a neutral level of integration in information technology cooperation, labor mobility, and the share of tourists in the region. Finally, the analysis of institutional integration shows a relatively high level of integration in the bilateral channels between governments and the institutionalization of regional cooperation in the socio-cultural field, and half of the countries had institutional integration in financial integration and regional cooperation in the economic field. The level of integration in the political and security field was low due to the existence of only multilateral meetings. The analysis of NARCI shows that the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the economy and socio-culture has been expanding in recent years. However, the low level of political and diplomatic cooperation in the region and related institutional deficiencies are considered to be insufficient to buffer these risks, and efforts are needed to address them.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, Regional Cooperation, Economic Growth, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Asia and Northeast Asia

64. Analysis of Trade Pattern Between the EAEU and South Korea

Author:
Zoia Podoba
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) is a relatively newly-formed regional integration bloc. It evolved on the basis of the Customs Union of Russia, Kazakhstan, and Belarus in 2015 with Armenia and Kyrgyzstan joining the agreement. The foreign economic aspirations of the EAEU as a single market, in the context of tense relations with Western partners, are turned towards Asian countries. The pivot to the East is supported by the ideological concept of “Greater Eurasia” (sometimes translated as “Big Eurasia”), which implies more extensive cooperation with the economies of Central, East, and South Asia. At a time when political efforts to bring the Union and Korea closer together have been put on hold, the paper aims to provide a comprehensive description of the bilateral merchandise trade pattern between the EAEU and the Republic of Korea to verify if statistical evidence on bilateral trade provides ground for the development of guiding actual policy deliberations in the future. Trade Intensity Index (TII), the sectoral bilateral coefficient of revealed comparative advantages, and the standard Grubel-Lloyd index have been used in order to analyze the bilateral trade between the EAEU and the Republic of Korea.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Regional Integration, and Trade
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Asia, and South Korea

65. Economic Cooperation Policies of China, Japan and India towards South Asia and Their Implications for Korea

Author:
Jeong Gon Kim
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
With the Indo-Pacific region increasingly gaining recognition for its strategic importance, countries such as China, Japan, and India are seeking close economic cooperation with South Asian countries. This report analyses these countries’ strategic perspectives and cooperation policies towards South Asia (Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka) under the rapidly changing international political and economic environment, and examines Korea’s future economic cooperation strategies and policies. Korea’s economic cooperation with South Asian countries has mainly focused on ODA. Although trade and investment have been centered on some manufacturing industries, they have recently shown a shrinking trend. While competition among major countries in South Asia is in full swing, it is necessary to establish a new direction for economic cooperation and promote policies towards South Asia from a strategic perspective.
Topic:
Economics, Regional Integration, Economic Cooperation, and Competition
Political Geography:
Japan, China, South Asia, India, Asia, and South Korea

66. Transport and Transit Policy of Kazakhstan and the Silk Road Region

Author:
Bulat Auelbeyev and Aidar Kurmashev
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
Since the emergence of independent states in the post-Soviet space, it has been predicted that the Silk Road region (i.e., what is usually called core or central Eurasia) could become a global strategic hub, due to both geopolitical and geoeconomic conditions. The region’s mid-continental position offers great opportunities for its core countries—particularly those located on its Central Asian side. Concomitantly, the region has attracted the attention of various centers of power—both regional and global. Furthermore, the development of trans-regional transport networks remains a hot topic, and the issue of communication development is on the agenda of almost all high-level international meetings. The already popular C5+1 format, in which various regional and world powers offer their cooperation to the Central Asian Five, also contains aspects of transport corridor development. Indeed, land transport corridors crossing the Silk Road region could create a new reality in the future. Modern logistics and transportation technologies make it possible to connect regions across the continent quickly and reliably. At the same time, states will seek to reduce the effect of non-physical barriers. This, in turn, will affect the relationship and security of all participants along the these corridors and beyond.
Topic:
Security, Geopolitics, Regional Integration, Transportation, and Transition
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Kazakhstan

67. Central Asia in Contemporary Geopolitics: Between Global Powers and Regional Integration

Author:
Urs Unkauf
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
What is generally true of the Silk Road region is particularly true with respect to its Central Asian part: the region acts as a bridge between geographies, civilizations, resource bases, and power centers. Geopolitically and geo-economically, Central Asia is one of the most important theaters of the twenty-first century. In his referential book The Grand Chessboard, Zbigniew Brzezinski wrote back in 1997 about the crucial importance of the Silk Road region (his term was “Eurasia”), and especially Central Asia, for global political supremacy. Nowadays, this region has been pushed back into the focus of geopolitics like no other due to the Russian Federation’s attack on Ukraine that commenced on 24 February 2022 and the resulting, still ongoing war. Indeed, as CoEditor of Baku Dialogues Damjan Krnjević Mišković has stated on various recent occasions, “the global importance of the Silk Road region today is greater than it has been in centuries.” Brzezinski’s key, still-relevant insight is that developments in Central Asia would depend to a large extent on the reciprocal interplay of Western, Russian, Turkish, Iranian, and Chinese interests. In the mirror of current geopolitical processes, Central Asia is of particular importance as a surface of interaction and projection for the global powers— China, Russia, and the United States. Although the EU is trying to act as a shaping actor in the region through the recent launch of programs like Global Gateway, it has so far been of something between secondary and tertiary importance in its political impact, especially given the competition with sources of regional influence such as Türkiye, Iran, and (more and more) India. It has meanwhile become clear that new global and regional power constellations, alliance structures, and economic corridors will emerge. Writing in mid-February 2023, former UN AssistantSecretary-General Michael von der Schulenburg outlined the contours of a new global order in a remarkable article for the German publication Makroskop: Magazine for Economic Policy, in which he sees keystone states in Latin America (Argentina, Brazil, Mexico), South and Southeast Asia (India, Indonesia), Africa (Ethiopia, Nigeria, South Africa), and the Middle East (Egypt, Saudi Arabia) as new drivers of an intensifying multipolarity of the world order. Although this order will not develop according to particular or hegemonic claims, one must at least take note of these processes. It is also important to recognize that the current processes of change and transformation are not so much the consequences of intended and planned action, but rather genuinely self-generating processes that reinforce themselves across regions. Schulenburg did not include Central Asia, but he should have. The region and its two keystone states (Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan) can also be included in this series and identified as one of the spaces within this multipolar constellation that can be considered a special arena of cooperation, confrontation, and regional hegemonic aspirations of global powers. Against such a background, this essay aims to provide a snapshot of Central Asia’s present geopolitical allocation in the context of broader international developments and trends. While the ambition of this essay is not to outline all challenges and opportunities, it does focus on the broad points that should be included in any strategic consideration of political and economic action in Central Asia.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Power Politics, Geopolitics, Regional Integration, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Silk Road Region

68. Georgia: Another Russian Front

Author:
Régis Genté
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
The end of 2023 is due to mark a turning point in Georgian history. In December, the European Council will decide whether to award the country European Union (EU) candidate status. For the majority of Georgia’s 3.7 million citizens, this decision is extremely important, as 81 percent of them say that they want their country to join the EU. However, the government and the ruling party Georgian Dream, under the informal control of the oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, have consistently acted contrary to this deeply rooted popular desire since coming to power, taking a foreign policy approach, at least since 2021, that has undermined relationships with Western partners and brought the ex-Soviet republic back into Russia’s sphere of influence. After twenty years of pro-European policy, this divergence between Georgia’s rulers and its population has provoked a succession of political crises in the country over the last few years. Moscow is supporting this dramatic shift in Tbilisi’s strategic orientation and may even have initiated it. Numerous indicators show that in practice Russia, which waged war against Georgia in 2008, continues to regard its neighbor as another battlefield in its confrontation with the West. These developments in Georgian politics presage the emergence of major political and geopolitical tensions.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Russia, Caucasus, and Georgia

69. Latin America and China's Belt and Road Initiative: Challenges and Proposals from a Latin American Perspective

Author:
Victor Ramiro Fernandez, Juliana González Jáuregui, and Gabriel Esteban Merino
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
Despite the divergent perspectives that address the presence of China in the Global South through the Belt and Road Initiative, scarce approaches identify how Latin America could face that challenge to reverse its historical dependency and promote economic development. We address this question by recovering and updating structuralist, dependentist, and autonomist contributions developed in Latin America combined with an arrighiean version of the world system. We compare the Latin American and Chinese trajectories regarding regional integration, productive and technological constitutions, spatial asymmetries, and state capacities. Finally, we propose how to forge a relationship with China that enhances Latin American autonomy.
Topic:
Development, Infrastructure, Regional Integration, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Economic Development, and Autonomy
Political Geography:
China and Latin America

70. The Governments of Mauricio Macri and Jair Bolsonaro: Ideology, Pragmatism and Foreign Policy

Author:
André Luiz Coelho, Mariano Ignacio Treacy, and Beatriz Bandeira de Mello
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
This article compares the foreign policy of the governments of Mauricio Macri in Argentina and Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil, based on the positions of the presidents and their representatives on three issues: 1) relations with the United States, 2) with China and 3) regional integration. We suggest that the Macri government has had to adapt its positions and discursive practices throughout its administration to national and international pressures. We understand that Jair Bolsonaro has adopted a similar stance in his foreign agenda and that his discourses, although strongly ideological, are opposed to more pragmatic actions, especially in the Brazilian economic and trade agendas, as in Argentina. The methodology used in this study is content analysis of speeches and reports from the Brazilian and Argentine foreign ministries, and the theoretical contributions of foreign policy analysis.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Government, Ideology, Regional Integration, Jair Bolsonaro, and Mauricio Macri
Political Geography:
China, Brazil, South America, and United States of America