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201. Advancing the Regional Trade Order in East Asia with a Less Engaged United States

Author:
Korea Economic Institute of America
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
In the aftermath of Donald Trump’s election and immediate pullout from the TPP, a scramble ensued over how to proceed with constructing a regional trade order centered on East Asia. For China this brought closer scrutiny of its pursuit of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). In the case of Japan, questions followed about what to do with the residue of TPP. Others, notably countries in Southeast Asia, were left contemplating the balance between eastern exclusive regionalism and the western presence in regionalism. In the background were efforts in South Asia aimed at advancing economic integration with East Asia. A kind of free-for-all was in progress without the moorings that had been lost after the paradigm of competition between a U.S.-led TPP and a China hub-and-spokes BRI no longer was guiding the strategic calculations of Asian countries. Then, in March 2018 came Trump’s disruptive tariffs, threatening to set a trade war in motion. Four chapters explore the challenge of advancing a regional trade order in East Asia in the new circumstances of 2017-18. Tu Xinquan in Chapter 10 questions whether BRI is a path toward regionalism, delving deeply into the Chinese strategy for BRI. T.J. Pempel follows in Chapter 11 by exploring Japan’s thinking about TPP and the process of refocusing on TPP- 11 following the U.S. withdrawal. Chapter 12 by Sanchita Basu Das offers a hopeful ASEAN perspective on economic regionalism. Finally, in Chapter 13 Pradumna Bickram Rana traces thinking about re-energizing economic integration between South Asia and East Asia. With no finality to the RCEP talks and the recently concluded TPP-11 pact still taking shape and Trump’s “America First” trade policy casting a dark shadow, we aim to capture signs of a new trade order at a time of flux.
Topic:
Economics, Regional Integration, and Trade
Political Geography:
Japan, China, East Asia, Asia, and Korea

202. The Evolution of Energy Fluxes and Cooperation Models in the Middle East

Author:
Robin Mills
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Despite its dominance as the world’s key exporting region of hydrocarbons, energy connectivity within the Middle East, in the form of cross-border oil and gas pipelines, electricity grids and related institutions, is lagging. There has been limited progress in the Eastern Mediterranean area and with Turkey. But so far unfavourable commercial conditions, persisting subsidies, and regional political suspicions and disputes, have hampered progress. Key changes in the world energy market – a period of lower oil prices, with the expansion of US shale production, the globalisation of natural gas trade, the rise of renewable energy, and growing action on climate change – should encourage more intra-regional links. To realise the prize of 25 billion to more than 100 billion US dollars of savings available from greater energy trade, regional states will have to liberalise energy markets, establish multilateral institutional frameworks, and make the most of support from international energy corporations and influential political players, notably the US, China, EU and Russia. Paper prepared in the framework of the IAI-Eni Strategic Partnership, December 2018.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Natural Resources, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Middle East and Gulf Nations

203. The Spillover Effects of Regional Trade Agreements on Trade

Author:
Dakshina G. De Silva, Soon-Cheul Lee, Robert P. McComb, and Maurizio Zanardi
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
The purpose of this paper is to examine whether or not there is a spillover effect of third countries’ regional trade agreements (RTAs) on their bilateral trade relationships. To identify the RTA spillover effects, we expand a gravity model into a third-country framework using a dataset of bilateral trade and RTAs for 62 country-pairs over the period 2002-2013. We construct a weighted third-countries’ RTA contiguity matrix as well as a spatially-weighted matrix to identify both the spillover and spatial effects of RTA on trade flows. The results show that the spillover effects of RTAs on trade are positive while the spatial effects of RTA are negative and imply that third parties’ RTAs have complementary effects on bilateral trade while the existence of neighbors in the RTA between the two trade partners reduces their bilateral trade. As a result, the proliferation of RTAs expand international trade through spillover effects as well as trade creation and trade diversion.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Regional Integration, Economic Policy, and Trade
Political Geography:
Global Focus

204. A Study on the Dynamics of Foreign Trade and the Issues of Regional Economic Integration in Central Asia

Author:
Kodirjon Maxamadaminovich Umarkulov
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
At the current stage of globalization, Central Asia (CA) is becoming a focal point for the political and economic interests of global forces because of its rich natural resources and critical strategic position. From this point of view, the CA countries need to form a joint development strategy for solving regional problems and a strong mechanism for countering the main political and economic conflicts in the region. At the same time, the countries of the region need to choose the path of joint development in order to increase the efficiency of their internal capacities and resources, adapt the domestic social and economic infrastructure to modern requirements and improve the living standards of the population. This is directly related to the progress of regional economic integration in CA. Through this integration, the economies of the countries in the region could complement each other and ensure a high level of development in mutual trade and industrial development. However, there are some obstacles and problems hindering the development of economic integration in the region. Most particularly, the weak infrastructure in the region, its economic-geographical isolation from world markets, administrative barriers and political instability hinder trade between the countries of CA. From this point of view, this study focuses on the problems of general and cross-border trade in CA countries, and the opportunities for economic integration in the region.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Regional Integration, Economic Policy, and Exports
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Asia

205. ASEAN-Australia Relations: The Suitable Status Quo

Author:
Malcolm Cook
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Australia’s dialogue partner relationship with ASEAN is more suitable for Australian interests in Southeast Asia than the idea of ASEAN membership. Australian membership in ASEAN is currently not possible. Australia’s dialogue partner relationship with ASEAN supports Australian policy autonomy and Australia’s engagement with Southeast Asia. The ASEAN–Australia dialogue partner relationship has significant room for growth.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, Partnerships, Regional Integration, and Trade
Political Geography:
Australia and Southeast Asia

206. Amérique latine - L’année politique 2017

Author:
Javier Corrales, Olivier Dabène, Gaspard Estrada, Antoine Faure, Erica Guevara, Marie-Esther Lacuisse, Damien Larrouqué, Nordin Lazreg, Frédéric Louault, Antoine Maillet, Frédéric Massé, and Luis Rivera Vélez
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:
Amérique latine - L’Année politique is a publication by CERI-Sciences Po’s Political Observatory of Latin America and the Caribbean (OPALC). The study extends the work presented on the Observatory’s website (www.sciencespo.fr/opalc) by offering tools for understanding a continent that is in the grip of deep transformations.
Topic:
Corruption, Crime, Democratization, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Sovereignty, Peacekeeping, Protests, Political Science, Regional Integration, Transnational Actors, and Borders
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Latin America, Nicaragua, Caribbean, Haiti, Venezuela, Dominican Republic, Mexico, Jamaica, Costa Rica, Chile, Peru, Paraguay, and Bolivia

207. La gouvernance des organisations régionales latino-américaines Etude comparée du rôle des secrétaires généraux (The Governance of Latin American Regional Organizations A Comparative Study of the Role of General Secretaries)

Author:
Kevin Parthenay
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:
In Latin America, as elsewhere in the world, regional and subregional organizations have multiplied recently. Scholars tend to focus on the variety of regionalisms or their ever changing nature (postliberal, post-hegemonic...). This study, through a political sociology of regionalism approach, examines Latin American regions and their actors and goes beyond the first set of questions. In this perspective, scrutinizing the regional General Secretaries of the sub-continent is particularly useful to understand how regional powers emerge. With a specific focus on the Southern Common Market (UNSUR), the Common Market of the South (MERCOSUR), the Andean Community of Nations (CAN) and the Central American Integration System (SICA), this research offers a more precise answer to the question of the configuration of power within Latin American regionalisms.
Topic:
Sovereignty, Sociology, Governance, Multilateralism, Political Science, Regional Integration, and Networks
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Latin America, Nicaragua, Caribbean, Haiti, Dominican Republic, Mexico, Costa Rica, Chile, Peru, Ecuador, and Bolivia

208. Maintaining momentum in enlargement

Author:
Erwan Fouéré
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
If it wants to convince reluctant member states of the continued benefits of enlargement, the EU needs to offer greater clarity and ensure candidate countries fulfil their commitments. The European Commission presented its latest communication on the EU’s enlargement policy on 17 April, together with the country reports assessing each candidate country’s record in the reforms required for EU accession. Three broad messages emerge.
Topic:
European Union, Regional Integration, European Commission, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Balkans, Macedonia, and Albania

209. The EU Twinning Instrument in Ukraine

Author:
Dmytro Panchuk and Fabienne Bossuyt
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
With the aid of a SWOT analysis (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats), this paper evaluates the implementation of the EU’s Twinning instrument in Ukraine since 2007.The authors draw upon 50 interviews they conducted with Twinning stakeholders from the EU, EU member states, Ukraine and other EaP countries. They argue that the Twinning instrument in Ukraine, while offering distinct strengths and opportunities, has punched below its weight due to systemic weaknesses in its internal set-up and a number of threats emanating from the domestic situation in Ukraine and the EU itself. The authors offer policy recommendations aimed at improving the effectiveness of the instrument in Ukraine and the greater EaP region through enhanced flexibility, more targeted interventions, stronger individual and sectoral incentives and greater visibility. They also review the European Commission’s new Twinning guidelines, which came into effect in July 2017, and reflect on how they address the issues raised in the analysis.
Topic:
Politics, European Union, Regional Integration, European Commission, and Threat Perception
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

210. Central Europe after 1918. A short outline

Author:
Dariusz Miszewski, Franciszek Dabrowski, Marek Deszczyński, and Grzegorz Wnętrzak
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This paper analyses changes in the region’s states, and the evolution of Central Europe’s (CE) position in the international environment. Since forming in 1918, the new CE independent states have remained a focus for neighbouring powers and Western powers. The paper looks at the background for the historical, political, economic, demographic, cultural and geopolitical importance of Central Europe. Th ree essential periods can be distinguished, the first being the post-WW1 period, when after the downfall of Austria-Hungary and the weakening of Germany, Russia and Turkey, a number of independent states emerged. The lack of Western assistance and insufficient mutual cooperation meant that CE countries became subject to aggression from Berlin and Moscow. After WW2, the region was forcefully reintegrated into the Soviet Union – and its states were subjected to political, social, economic and cultural degradation. The downfall of the Soviet Union and democratic transition in the states of Central Europe contributed to the regional economic and security integration. EU membership and close ties to the USA forged significant possibilities for development and becoming a subject of European policy. Historical experiences show that Central Europe has had a significant impact on international security in Europe. The region’s states of increasing signifi cance have the capability potential to forge their own concepts of close regional political and economic cooperation.
Topic:
Security, History, Alliance, Regional Integration, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Central Europe