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Begin New Search Topic Political stability Publication Year within 10 Years

1. The Path of Least Resilience: Autocratic Rule and External Powers in the Middle East

Author:
Anthony Bubalo
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The examples of Egypt and Saudi Arabia show the risks in betting on the stability of autocratic regimes in the region. Despite the Arab uprisings of the last decade, most countries in the Middle East remain in the grip of autocrats, with a widespread view that this is the 'default setting' for the region. However, an examination of Egypt and Saudi Arabia, where authoritarianism has been revived, reveals both regimes are struggling for popular legitimacy. Increasingly reliant on repression, these regimes risk provoking civil unrest, and external powers should reconsider their assumption that autocracy guarantees stability in the Middle East.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Government, Authoritarianism, Political stability, and Legitimacy
Political Geography:
Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Australia, and Egypt

2. Australia’s future – still the lucky country or running out of luck?

Author:
Gorana Grgic
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:
As the world rung in 2020, political analysts across the globe were busy making assessments of the past decade and offering predictions as to the dominant geopolitical, economic and social trends over the next ten years. Subjecting Australia to the same scrutiny leaves an impression the 2010s are going resilience is its greatest success as the country has continued to enjoy uninterrupted economic growth amidst the global financial crisis and in the aftermath of the direst recession to hit the world since the Great Depression. This makes it an absolute record-setter across the Western world. Yet, the optimism that such to be remembered as a decade of missed opportunities as ‘kicking the can down the road’ approach to economy, polity and security start to imperil Australia’s reputation as a lucky country. In brief, Australia’s economic positive trends will endure is fading. While Australia has been spared of the surge of populism that has plagued a significant portion of mature democracies across the West, it has suffered from an unprecedented leadership turnover that has impeded action on the most (figuratively and literally) burning issue it faces – that of climate change. On the foreign and security policy front, successive Australian governments have been walking the diplomatic tightrope as the United States remains to be an indispensable ally, while China takes the prime spot as the country’s largest trading partner. Given the intensification of the US-China rivalry, Australia finds itself needing to find a way out of this Gordian knot. Facing the grim prospects of the precipitously warming planet, the return of great power rivalry, the decline of liberal democracies, and the uncertainties of technological change, 2020s are inevitably going to force Australian decisionmakers to make hard choices.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Political stability, and Economic growth
Political Geography:
Australia

3. Perspectives on the future of Idlib

Author:
Kirill Semenov
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The situation in Idlib poses a challenge to the Assad government. Damascus has neither the forces nor the means to resolve the problem. Moreover, any operation conducted against the Syrian moderate opposition and the radical alliance “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham” (HTS) concentrated in this region could be significantly problematic for the government. Turkey seeks to establish a protectorate or security zone in Idlib to accommodate those fleeing regime-held areas and prevent a new refugees flow into Turkey. The gains achieved by the Turkish operation in Idlib by the establishment of the security zone has potentially been lost as a result of the subsequent Russian backed Syrian government offensive, which has created a problem for Turkey with hundreds of thousands heading toward the Turkish border and threatening to exasperate what is already a costly refugee problem for Ankara. In order for Turkey to address issues in Idlib, including IDPs and economic problems, it first needs to deal with the HTS, ideally finding a way to dissolve the group. This could potentially be an area of cooperation for Moscow and Ankara. This may be necessary to prevent a deterioration in the security situation and long-term destabilisation of the area.
Topic:
Security, Refugees, Economy, Political stability, Displacement, Syrian War, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and Transition
Political Geography:
Russia, Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and Idlib

4. Security Assistance in the Middle East: A Three-Dimensional Chessboard

Author:
Robert Springborg, F.C. "Pink" Williams, and John Zavage
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The United States, Russia, and Iran have chosen markedly different approaches to security assistance in the Middle East, with dramatic implications for statebuilding and stability. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is the world’s testing ground for the effectiveness of security assistance provided by global and regional powers. That security assistance has contributed to the intensity and frequency of proxy wars—such as those under way or recently wound down in Libya, Yemen, Syria, and Iraq—and to the militarization of state and substate actors in the MENA region. Security assistance is at the core of struggles for military, strategic, ideological, and even economic preeminence in the Middle East. Yet despite the broad and growing importance of security assistance for the region and for competition within it between global and regional actors, security assistance has been the subject of relatively little comparative analysis. Efforts to assess relationships between the strategic objectives and operational methods of security assistance providers and their relative impacts on recipients are similarly rare.
Topic:
Security, Geopolitics, Political stability, and State Building
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

5. China’s Response to the Killing of Soleimani

Author:
Roie Yellinek
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:
China and Iran have a close relationship, but Beijing’s influence over Tehran is questionable. Its response to the killing of Iranian Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani offers clues to its view of its own role in the Middle East.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Economy, Political stability, and Qassem Soleimani
Political Geography:
China, Iran, Middle East, Asia, and United States of America

6. Japan and the Visegrad 4: The Unsensational Strategic Partners

Author:
Rudolf Furst
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of International Relations Prague
Abstract:
The Euro-Japanese rapprochement stimulates the Japanese interest in the new EU member states, which are then matched with Japanese investments and Japan’s global trade strategy. The V4 countries benefit from their geographical position, existing infrastructure and political stability, industrial tradition, and low labour costs, emphasizes Rudolf Fürst.
Topic:
Economics, Bilateral Relations, Labor Issues, European Union, Political stability, and Industry
Political Geography:
Japan, Europe, and Asia

7. Political Instability, FDI and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan African Countries: Evidence from Modelling Dynamic Simultaneous Equations

Author:
Lewis Landry Gakpa
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:
The aim of this study is to examine the consequences of interaction between political instability and foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth of 31 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa in order to analyse one of the channels through which political instability affects economic growth. To achieve this objective, the study relies on a dynamic panel procedure and the Three Stage Least Squares Method to estimate a model of simultaneous equations over the period 1984-2015. The empirical results indicate that political instability affects economic growth directly and indirectly through its impact on foreign direct investment. We also highlight the simultaneous character of the relationship between political instability and the level of economic development in Sub-Saharan African countries. The results of the study then corroborate the idea that political instability hinders growth and thus calls for measures to improve the quality of political climate, which is one of the conditions necessary for a country’s economy to benefit from foreign direct investment.
Topic:
Economics, Foreign Direct Investment, Political stability, Economic Policy, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, Angola, Namibia, and Botswana

8. UNRAVELING PRESIDENTIALISM: LEARNING FROM THE LATIN AMERICAN EXPERIENCE

Author:
Ebru īlter Akarçay
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Alternative Politics
Institution:
Department of International Relations, Abant Izzet Baysal University, Turkey
Abstract:
Early studies on presidentialism associated the design with political instability and weak democratic credentials, with deeply divided societies being particularly advised not to craft presidential regimes. Practices of presidentialism around the world later reframed the debate, as the focus shifted to variants of presidentialism. Presidentialism, in all its shades and colors, negates a monolithic set of political outcomes as evidenced by the constant experimentation in Latin America. This study scrutinizes how some reforms in Latin America served to pluralize presidentialism whereas other steps reinforced the opposite results. Lessons can be drawn from the two steps forward and one step back advance of presidentialism in the region. While the changing role of vice presidency, the impact of electoral system reform, and allowing for presidential exit through the intervention of the electorate diffuse power, the growing legislative powers of presidents and flexibilization of term limits dent pluralization.
Topic:
Reform, Democracy, Political structure, and Political stability
Political Geography:
United States and Latin America

9. How Leaders Can Stop Corona from Undermining the EU: The Health and Economic Crises Require Coordinated Handling

Author:
Daniela Schwarzer and Shahin Vallée
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
The coronavirus pandemic, and the resulting severe economic disruptions, can only be effectively tackled with a European and global response. The degree of integration and interdependence between member states – economically, politically and socially – means that in dealing with the virus and its economic effects, the EU is only as strong as its weakest part. Governments have to devise a more forward-looking, collective response. Hesitation and the failure to tackle the problem collectively will increase the losses – in terms of lives, economic wellbeing, political stability and EU unity.
Topic:
European Union, Economy, Political stability, Coronavirus, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

10. The EU’s Role in Addressing Lebanon’s Multiple Crises

Author:
Shahin Vallée
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
The Beirut Port blast (BPB) has revealed the fundamental failure of the Lebanese political system, but deep democratic reforms will take time and are fraught with risks. Given the US withdrawal and the extreme tensions in the region, the EU has a critical role to play in addressing the short-term humanitarian crisis, responding to the economic and financial situation, and providing a forum for civil society empowerment. If it fails to do so, the price is further geopolitical destabilization.
Topic:
Civil Society, European Union, Geopolitics, Finance, Economy, Political stability, Crisis Management, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and Lebanon