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261. The Global Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Second Wave and Policy Implications

Author:
Gyeong Lyeob Cho, Minsuk Kim, and Yun Kyung Kim
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This paper examines the macroeconomic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic through the Computable General Equilibrium model. Due to a second wave and a subsequent delay in economic recovery, the pandemic could lead to a permanent shock in capital accumulation and productivity. This implies that the shock may not merely affect the short-term growth rate but also negatively impact the future economic growth path from its pre-pandemic trend. Through simulations, in the mild scenario, countries lose 0.10% to 0.31% of their future economic growth rates; in the severe scenario, they lose 0.21% to 0.69%.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

262. Identifying the Impact of Supply Chain Disruption Caused by COVID-19 on Manufacturing Production in Japan

Author:
Tadashi Ito
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
COVID-19 has disrupted all aspects of our lives, including international trade. This paper investigates the effect of supply chain disruption on production activities, in particular by exploiting the difference in the timing of the lockdowns in China and Japan. Using monthly production data, monthly export and import data, Japan’s input–output tables, and international input–output tables, the analyses find evidence of a negative impact of supply chain disruption by COVID-19 on Japan’s manufacturing production activities.
Topic:
Manufacturing, Pandemic, COVID-19, Supply Chains, and Production
Political Geography:
Japan and Asia

263. Policy Strategies to Strengthen the Travel and Tourism Sectors from the COVID-19 Pandemic Shocks: A Computable General Equilibrium Model for the Indonesian Economy

Author:
Irlan Adiyatma Rum
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
The travel and tourism sectors have become the most vulnerable sectors to the COVID-19 pandemic. Studies have shown that most tourist-destination countries will experience economic shocks due to the pandemic. This study analyses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic shock and the implications of policies taken by the government to strengthen the travel and tourism sectors. As the largest travel and tourism economy in ASEAN, this study uses Indonesia as a case study. It uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model using a detailed national input–output table for the creative sectors. The study develops baseline scenarios (low and lower-middle recovery), general policy scenarios (moderate and highly effective support) and specific policy scenarios for the travel and tourism sectors. Through changes in export demand, the impact of the pandemic depends on the existing conditions and policy interventions. The pandemic causes the nominal gross domestic product at the national level to decline by an interval of [–1.99%, –2.97%] and for tourism and travel sectors by [–6.81%, –10.38%] depending on the recovery period. If the recovery is low (all annual inbound tourism expenditure is removed), the Indonesian macroeconomy will be worse than under the lower-middle recovery, given the same government intervention. Thus, effectiveness becomes an important factor for creating a better impact. Adding capital stimulus into the tourism sector helps to further reduce output decline in the travel and tourism sectors, but it is not enough to help the economy recover from the pandemic. The best policy strategy is to make sure that the mitigation plan will be implemented effectively.
Topic:
Tourism, Economy, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Travel
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Asia

264. Robustness and Resilience of Supply Chains During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Findings from a Questionnaire Survey on the Supply Chain Links of Firms in ASEAN and India

Author:
Yasuyuki Todo, Keita Oikawa, Masahito Ambashi, Fukunari Kimura, and Shujiro Urata
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Using a unique firm-level data set from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and India collected from November 2020 to February 2021, this paper examines how the robustness and resilience of supply chain links – i.e. maintaining links and substituting another for a disrupted partner, respectively – were determined when firms faced economic shocks due to the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Focusing on the role of the characteristics of firms’ supply chains, we find that homophily, i.e. the tendency to form a group with similar agents, was often associated with the robustness of supply chain links, most likely because of the strength of homophilous ties. In particular, when a foreign-owned firm had a supply chain link with a firm located in the same country as its home country, the link was quite robust. We also find that the geographic diversity of customers and suppliers creates resilience of supply chains. When the demand or supply from a partner of a firm was disrupted because of COVID-19, the firm likely mitigated the damage from the disruption through substitution of partners if its supply chains were well diversified across countries. In addition, larger or younger firms tended to be resilient and robust. The robustness and resilience of supply chains are found to have led to higher performance.
Topic:
Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Pandemic, Resilience, COVID-19, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
India, Asia, and Southeast Asia

265. Education for All? Assessing the Impact of Socio-economic Disparity on Learning Engagement During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Indonesia

Author:
Samuel Nursamsu, Winsu Harto Adiwijoyo, and Anissa Rahmawati
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This paper attempts to shed light on the impact of socio-economic disparity on learning engagement during the COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia. Utilising search intensity data from Google Trends, school data from Dapodik (Education Core Database), and socio-economic data from the National Socioeconomic Survey, we conduct descriptive analysis, an event study, and difference-in-difference estimations. First, school quality differs in terms of the regions’ development level, especially between western and eastern Indonesia. However, densely populated and well-developed areas generally have lower offline classroom availability. In addition, the quality of public schools is generally lower than private schools. Second, our estimation results show that only online-classroom related search intensity that increased significantly after school closures on 16 March 2020, not in self-learning related search intensity. Further the analysis shows that socio-economic disparity within provinces widens the gap in online learning engagement, albeit with weak evidence from per capita expenditure. Interestingly, provinces with a higher inequality and rural population tend to have higher self-learning related search intensity due to students’ necessity to compensate for low learning quality from schools. In addition, technology adoption does not seem to give much of an increase to online-classroom related search intensity but contributes to lower self-learning related search intensity due to increased academic distraction. Our study provides evidence for the Indonesian government to make more precise policy in improving learning quality during the pandemic.
Topic:
Education, Children, Inequality, Pandemic, COVID-19, Socioeconomics, and Public Schools
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Asia

266. Spillover Effects of Social and Economic Interactions on COVID-19 Pandemic Vulnerability Across Indonesia’s Regions

Author:
Ernawati Pasaribu, Puguh B. Irawan, Tiodora H. Siagian, Ika Yuni Wulansari, and Robert Kurniawan
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This research study focuses on measuring the possible spillover effects of socio-economic interactions on COVID-19 pandemic vulnerability across Indonesia’s regions by utilising a spatial simultaneous model. The COVID-19 pandemic vulnerability level here is used to indicate the extent to which a region is susceptible to the spreading COVID-19 pandemic, as determined by not only the region’s COVID-19 related epidemiological factors but also by its relevant socio-demographic and economic aspects, housing, environmental health, and availability of health facilities. High COVID-19 pandemic vulnerability levels were mostly found in districts in Java Island and southern Sumatera, suggesting high population density and mobility in both regions. It was revealed that 31 districts have low COVID-19 risk levels (from epidemiological indicators-related measurements), but they have high COVID-19 vulnerability levels (from epidemiological and socioeconomic indicators-based measurements). Labour productivity was found to have a reciprocal relationship with COVID-19 vulnerability, proving that the COVID-19 pandemic has a significant impact on labour productivity and vice versa. On the other hand, regional independence affects COVID-19 vulnerability, but this does not apply the other way around. Moreover, this study has also proven that COVID-19 pandemic vulnerability levels have socio-economic spillover effects on neighbouring areas in Indonesia.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, Pandemic, COVID-19, Socioeconomics, and Economic Integration
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Asia

267. COVID-19 and its impact on Chile security and defense scenario/El COVID-19 y su impacto en el escenario de seguridad y defensa de Chile: Impacto nacional y regional

Author:
John Griffiths Spielman and Aldo Cassinelli Capurro
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
The COVID19 pandemic has hit Chile in the midst of a social outbreak, consequently, its impact and effect has also had a degree of politicization among the various political actors. Nonetheless, the health crisis has been skillfully managed by the current authorities, with Chile´s efforts being internationally prominent, both in obtaining supplies and in handling the crisis. The foregoing has presented risks, threats and also opportunities, which in the national case have been overcome thanks to the integration and effective coordination of the various state and non-state actors. In this, the participation of the armed forces has played a crucial role together with other organizations, in the search for solutions that in the case of Chile have allowed to adequately face the pandemic. Notwithstanding, at the regional level, cooperation efforts have not been adequately reflected since an individualistic and competitive attitude has prevailed, without prejudice to the existence of some specific actions or events of interstate solidarity./La pandemia COVID19 ha golpeado a Chile en pleno desarrollo de un estallido social, en consecuencia, su impacto y efecto también ha tenido un grado de politización entre los diversos actores políticos. Sin embargo, la crisis sanitaría ha sido hábilmente manejada por las actuales autoridades, siendo el esfuerzo de Chile destacado internacionalmente, tanto en la obtención de insumos, como en el manejo de la crisis. Lo anterior, ha presentado riesgos, amenazas y también oportunidades, que en el caso nacional se han podido sortear gracias a la integración y efectiva coordinación de los diversos actores estatales y no estatales. En ello, la participación de las fuerzas armadas (FFAAs) ha sido clave junto a otros organismos, para la búsqueda de soluciones que han permitido en el caso de Chile enfrentar adecuadamente la pandemia. Sin embargo, en el plano regional no se han podido plasmar adecuadamente los esfuerzos de cooperación ya que ha primado una actitud individualista y de competencia, sin perjuicio de existir algunas acciones o hechos específicos de solidaridad interestatal.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Regional Cooperation, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Latin America and Chile

268. Bolivia and COVID-19, a story of two pandemics/Bolivia y COVID-19: Una historia de dos pandemias

Author:
Joseph M. Humire
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
This article argues that Bolivia has been affected, at the same time, by two pandemics, the political and the sanitary. It also argues that institutional fragility and the weakness of health structures and organizations have been a disadvantage in the management of the pandemic, which has not been free of political influences for the benefit of one or the other side, aggravating and harming, in the end, the most disadvantaged population. This, additionally in an economic context of great informality that has been seriously damaged, affecting the weakest who earn their living in this informal sector of the economy. The internal power struggles in Bolivia have been in practice a factor that has negatively affected the management of the pandemic at the national level./Este artículo plantea que Bolivia ha sido afectada, al mismo tiempo, por dos pandemias, la política y la sanitaria. Adicionalmente plantea que la fragilidad institucional y la debilidad de las estructuras y organizaciones sanitarias han sido una desventaja en el manejo de la pandemia, la que no ha estado exenta de influencias políticas para beneficio de uno u otro bando, agravando y perjudicando al final, a la población más desfavorecida. Ello, adicionalmente en un contexto económico de gran informalidad que se ha visto seriamente dañado, afectando a los más débiles que se ganan la vida en este sector informal de la economía. Las luchas internas de poder en Bolivia han sido en la practica un factor que ha afectado negativamente el manejo de la pandemia a nivel nacional.
Topic:
Health, Institutions, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Latin America and Bolivia

269. Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Argentina and in the regional security scenario/Impacto de la pandemia COVID-19 en Argentina y en el escenario regional

Author:
María Lourdes Puente Olivera and Antonio López Llovet
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
The article reviews the effects of the pandemic in Argentina, with a special focus on the areas of security and defense, as well as its effects on the country's foreign policy, in view of the regional and global scenario it has to face. The final conclusion shows the challenges that Argentina has to face to operate in this strategic field, under the uncertainties of the world to come./El artículo versa sobre los efectos que tuvo la pandemia en la Argentina y hace un foco especial en las áreas de seguridad y defensa; además sus efectos en la política exterior del país, en vistas del escenario regional y global que enfrenta. La conclusión final da cuenta de los desafíos que enfrenta Argentina para desenvolverse en este campo estratégico, en la incertidumbre del mundo que viene.
Topic:
Security, Armed Forces, Conflict, Risk, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Argentina and Latin America

270. COVID-19 and the militarization of the State in Brazil/COVID-19 y la militarización del Estado en Brasil

Author:
Thiago Rodrigues, Maíra Fedatto, and Mariana Kalil
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Brazil has been hit hard by the new coronavirus pandemic. In such a context, there has been an increasing transference of decision-making and policy-making power to the military, and the Brazilian national response to COVID-19 has eventually come under military authority. Based on the current debate on the on-going securitization of public health in the world following the outbreak of the new coronavirus, we engage with recent literature in an attempt to demonstrate Brazil’s singular pattern of military interference in public health. It is our hypothesis that in Brazil there is a process of militarization of the responses to the pandemic without, however, a concomitant process of securitization. This is possible because the Bolsonaro Administration combines denialism toward the COVID-19 pandemic with the gradual delegation of key political roles to the military. We claim, finally, that the Brazilian case of military response to COVID-19 offers analytical instruments to study other cases of imbalance in civil-military relations throughout the Global South./La pandemia del nuevo coronavirus ha impactado severamente a Brasil. En este contexto, las fuerzas armadas han recibido sustancial aumento en su capacidad de decisión y de elaboración de políticas públicas de respuesta a la COVID-19. A partir del presente debate sobre la creciente securitización de la salud pública global en tiempos de pandemia, nosotros convocamos a la literatura reciente sobre el tema con el objetivo de demostrar la originalidad del caso brasileño respeto a la interferencia militar en salud pública. Nuestra hipótesis destaca que en Brasil ha existido un proceso de militarización de las respuestas a la pandemia sin que haya un simultaneo proceso de securitización. Ello es posible porque el Gobierno Bolsonaro combina negacionismo respeto a la pandemia con una gradual delegación a los militares de puestos claves en la toma de decisiones. Argumentamos que el caso brasileño ofrece instrumentos de análisis importantes para el estudio de otros casos de desequilibrio de las relaciones cívico-militares en el Sur Global.
Topic:
Security, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Militarization
Political Geography:
Brazil and Latin America