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192. An Unnoticed Crisis: The End of History for Nuclear Arms Control?
- Author:
- Alexei Arbatov
- Publication Date:
- 06-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Beginning with the signing of the Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty in 1963, an international arms control regime has limited existing nuclear arsenals and prevented further proliferation of nuclear weapons. But that entire system could soon unravel. Nearly all negotiations on nuclear arms reduction and nonproliferation have come to a stop, while existing treaty structures are eroding due to political and military-technological developments and may collapse in the near future. These strategic and technical problems can be resolved if politicians are willing to work them out, and if experts approach them creatively.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, Treaties and Agreements, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
193. The Iran Nuclear Deal: A Definitive Guide
- Author:
- Gary Samore
- Publication Date:
- 08-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- This report has been produced in the interest of contributing to informed Congressional review and public discourse on a comprehensive nuclear agreement with Iran—the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). It provides a concise description of the agreement and the accompanying UN Security Council Resolution 2231. It also includes a balanced assessment of the agreement's strengths and weaknesses with respect to its central objective to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. The team of experts who prepared the report includes Democrats, Republications, independents, and internationals. Noting areas of disagreement among themselves, they agreed that this report provides an accurate description and balanced assessment of the agreement.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and Sanctions
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
194. Beyond Camp David: A Gradualist Strategy to Upgrade the US-Gulf Security Partnership
- Author:
- Bilal Y. Saab and Barry Pavel
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- President Barack Obama's summit meeting with Gulf leaders at Camp David on May 14 will end in failure if the administration does not propose a substantial upgrade in US-Gulf security relations that is as bold and strategically significant as the nuclear agreement–and likely formal deal–with Iran. While the summit will not suddenly eliminate mistrust and resolve all differences, it presents an historic opportunity to put back on track a decades-old US-Gulf partnership that has served both sides and the region well, yet lately has experienced deep turbulence. Failure to strengthen these ties will have consequences, the most dramatic of which could be the acceleration of the regional order's collapse. In a March 2015 Atlantic Council report entitled Artful Balance: Future US Defense Strategy and Force Posture in the Gulf, we made the case for a mutual defense treaty between the United States and willing Arab Gulf partners. In this issue in focus, we offer a more comprehensive and detailed assessment of the risks, concerns, benefits, and opportunities that would be inherent in such a treaty. We recommend a gradualist approach for significantly upgrading US-Gulf security relations that effectively reduces the risks and maximizes the benefits of more formal US security commitments to willing Arab Gulf states.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Persian Gulf
195. Why China Won't Abandon Its Nuclear Strategy of Assured Retaliation
- Author:
- Fiona S. Cunningham and M. Taylor Fravel
- Publication Date:
- 12-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Whether China will abandon its long-standing nuclear strategy of assured retaliation for a first-use posture will be a critical factor in U.S.-China strategic stability. In recent years, the United States has been developing strategic capabilities such as missile defenses and conventional long-range strike capabilities that could reduce the effectiveness of China's deterrent. Writings by Chinese strategists and analysts, however, indicate that China is unlikely to abandon its current nuclear strategy.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Military Strategy, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and East Asia
196. Slow Thaw: Testing Possibilities for Cooperation with Iran After a Nuclear Deal
- Author:
- Ilan Goldenberg, Jacob Stokes, and Nicholas Heras
- Publication Date:
- 01-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for a New American Security
- Abstract:
- With nuclear negotiations between Iran and the United States restarting today, Center for a New American Security (CNAS) Middle East Security Program Director Ilan Goldenberg, CNAS Bacevich Fellow Jacob Stokes, and CNAS Middle East Program Research Associate Nicholas Heras have produced a new policy brief on potential cooperation with Iran in the wake of a nuclear deal. The authors argue any thawing of the relationship would face tremendous challenges.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
197. The Nuclear Problem of the Korean Peninsula: Is There a Way to Break the Impasse?
- Author:
- V. Denisov
- Publication Date:
- 02-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The Nuclear Crisis on the Korean Peninsula is escalating and is increasingly difficult to resolve. the six-nation mechanism for negotiating a solution, which brings together Russia, China, the United States, Japan, North Korea, and South Korea, has remained stalled for more than five years. Agreements enshrined in the sextet’s Joint Statement of September 19, 2005 have never been put into practice. Relations between the two Koreas are as sour today as ever, and time and again tensions between Pyongyang and Seoul reach extremely dangerous proportions.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, War, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea
198. Underestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future
- Author:
- Henry D. Sokolski
- Publication Date:
- 12-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- With the world focused on the nuclear crisis in Iran, it is tempting to think that addressing this case, North Korea, and the problem of nuclear terrorism is all that matters and is what matters most. Perhaps, but if states become more willing to use their nuclear weapons to achieve military advantage, the problem of proliferation will become much more unwieldy. In this case, U.S. security will be hostage not just to North Korea, Iran, or terrorists, but to nuclear proliferation more generally, diplomatic miscalculations, and wars between a much larger number of possible players. This, in a nutshell, is the premise of Underestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future, which explores what nuclear futures we may face over the next 3 decades and how we currently think about this future. Will nuclear weapons spread in the next 20 years to more nations than just North Korea and possibly Iran? How great will the consequences be? What can be done?
- Topic:
- Security, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, International Security, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Iran, North Korea, and United States of America
199. Prospects for Iran's New Direction
- Author:
- Keir Giles
- Publication Date:
- 02-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- This monograph, completed ahead of the November 2014 deadline, examines some of the underlying factors which will be constant in dealing with a nuclear capable Iran under President Hassan Rouhani, and which will help determine the success or failure of talks in 2015. It analyzes Rouhani's eventful first year in office in order to provide pointers to what may be possible—and to some key limiting factors—for Iran under his leadership. During that time, Rouhani has been forced to balance his own progressive instincts with the instinctual caution of more conservative elements of the Iranian ruling elite. As a result, foreign hopes for his influence on Iran’s place in the world have moved from initial optimism to a more sober assessment of the options available to him. This monograph provides an essential backdrop to the forthcoming renewed negotiations with Iran by providing an introduction to the complex interplay of issues and interests which constrain the Iranian leadership
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, Politics, Treaties and Agreements, Nuclear Power, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Iran
200. Hezbollah's Ascent and Descent
- Author:
- Lina Khatib
- Publication Date:
- 06-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Institution:
- ARI Movement
- Abstract:
- Hezbollah today is Lebanon’s strongest political party. However, its military intervention in the Syrian conflict has put it at a crossroads. While the party’s domestic strength continues, largely due to the weakness of its Lebanese political opponents and to its reliance on the possession of weapons to intimidate them, Hezbollah is facing increasing challenges in Syria. The author argues that as a deal on Iran’s nuclear ambitions looms, and with it the possibility of imposed limitations on Iran’s behavior by the international community, Hezbollah – being Iran’s key client – will find its autonomy and ability to act in the domestic Lebanese sphere as well as externally reduced in the future.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Violent Extremism, and Hezbollah
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Syria