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251. Xi Transforms the PLA: How the Military Is Being Adapted to China’s Changing Global Position

Author:
Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:
10-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Reform of the Chinese armed forces gained new momentum under Xi Jinping in 2015. The main argument behind the strategy, structure, and equipment modernisation of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is the active defence of China’s global interests to strengthen its competitiveness with the United States. A short-term goal is to make the PLA operationally capable of projecting China’s power abroad constantly, using joint exercises, peacekeeping missions, and the development of military infrastructure. One recent example was opening of China’s first foreign military base in Djibouti. The PLA should also be capable of defending China’s territory and overseas interests by performing combat operations abroad. This means a possible change to the non-intervention clause that has until now been a crucial element of China’s foreign policy.
Topic:
International Security and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

252. Principles of Russian Military Thought

Author:
Nicolò Fasola
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Institute of International Relations Prague
Abstract:
The aim of this paper is to identify the enduring principles at the basis of Russian military thought, offering an alternative to the contemporary analytical mainstream – which deems Moscow’s military behavior to be revolutionary and unprecedented. This is based on comparative analysis of Russian official military discourse and practice between 2008 and 2016. Critical inspection of the two Military Doctrines approved during this timeframe and of various military drills will reveal a series of rhetorical and operational recurrences. Notwithstanding numerous changes at the international and domestic levels that could have had an impact on Russian military behavior, no substantive shift is distinguishable. These empirical findings will constitute the basis for a reconstruction of Russian military thought. Through a deductive method, we will be able to reconstruct the ultimate assumptions granting them logical coherence and legitimization. Far from being incomprehensible, Russian military thought will be presented as the adaptation of classical strategic principles to contemporary contingencies.
Topic:
International Affairs and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
Russia

253. Collective Defence in the Age of Hybrid Warfare

Author:
Benjamin Tallis and Michal Šimečka
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of International Relations Prague
Abstract:
The discussion paper by Benjamin Tallis and Michal Šimečka, senior researchers at the Institute of International Relations, provides a (critical) reflection on hybrid warfare – as both a concept and a practice – in the context of collective security in Europe, and discusses the role of the institutions and policies of NATO, the EU, and Member States.
Topic:
International Affairs and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

254. Closer Than You Think: The Implications of the Third Offset Strategy for the U.S. Army

Author:
Samuel R White Jr
Publication Date:
10-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
The Defense Innovation Initiative (DII), begun in November 2014 by former Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel, is intended to ensure U.S. military superiority throughout the 21st century. The DII seeks broad-based innovation across the spectrum of concepts, research and development, capabilities, leader development, wargaming, and business practices. An essential component of the DII is the Third Offset Strategy—a plan for overcoming (offsetting) adversary parity or advantage, reduced military force structure, and declining technological superiority in an era of great power competition. This study explored the implications for the Army of Third Offset innovations and breakthrough capabilities for the operating environment of 2035-2050. It focused less on debating the merits or feasibility of individual technologies and more on understanding the implications—the second and third order effects on the Army that must be anticipated ahead of the breakthrough.
Topic:
Science and Technology and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

255. Then and Now: Comparing the Flow of Foreign Fighters to AQI and the Islamic State

Author:
Brian Dodwell, Daniel S. Hamilton, and Don Rassler
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Using two different sets of data derived from internal, bureaucratic documents produced by the Islamic State (and its predecessor group) during two distinct periods of time (2006-2007 and 2011-2014), this report evaluates how the make-up, scale, and scope of the Iraq- and Syria-bound foreign fighter problem has changed over the last decade. It does so across three dimensions. First, it outlines the similarities and differences that exist in the backgrounds of the foreign fighters who joined the Islamic State during separate blocks of time. Second, it provides insight into the local travel and flow of foreign fighters across time as well as the mobilization infrastructure that the Islamic State had in place to facilitate the travel of recruits into Syria or Iraq. Third, it details changes in the preferences of foreign fighters, as reflected by the roles they wanted to fill within the organization.
Topic:
International Affairs and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

256. From Cradle to Grave: The Lifecycle of Foreign Fighters in Iraq and Syria

Author:
Arie Perlinger and Daniel S. Hamilton
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
In April 2016, the CTC released a major report on Islamic State foreign fighters. This report, based on over 4,000 leaked personnel records, gave an interesting inside look at who the group was able to bring into the organization and also how the group was trying to manage the large number of recruits. The Combating Terrorism Center is pleased to announce the release of another major report on foreign fighters. This report, From Cradle to Grave: The Lifecycle of Foreign Fighters in Iraq and Syria, breaks down the experience (or lifecycle) of foreign fighters into three stages: pre-departure, in theater, and return. However, because the personnel records used in the previous report do not speak to each of these stages, this report then uses open-source reporting on these fighters to code variables in each of these different stages. Using a dataset of nearly 1,200 foreign fighters from mostly Western Europe and North America, this report offers a more holistic examination of what the fighter flows look like, but also what challenges policymakers and practitioners will face as they continue to deal with this enduring and complicated problem.
Topic:
International Affairs and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

257. Elite Cues or Social Cues? The Formation of Public Opinion on Foreign Policy

Author:
Michelle Nicholasen and Joshua D. Kertzer
Publication Date:
02-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
In July 2014, a wave of violence erupted in the Middle East, as Israel responded to a barrage of rockets from Gaza by launching airstrikes, and eventually, a ground incursion intent on degrading Hamas’s military capabilities. In Washington, both Democrats and Republicans firmly sided with Israel: the Senate passed a unanimous resolution blaming Hamas for the conflict, and both prominent Democrats and Republicans gave staunch defenses of Israel’s right to defend itself. Although both Democrats and Republicans in Washington were united in their support for Israel, a series of polls conducted at the time found that Democrats and Republicans in the public were not aligned with them: in a Pew poll, for example, 60 percent of Republicans blamed Hamas for the violence, while Democrats were more evenly split, with 29 percent blaming Hamas and 26 percent blaming Israel. A Gallup poll detected a similar pattern: 65 percent of Republicans thought Israel’s actions were justified, but Democrats were more divided, as 31 percent backed the Israeli response, and 47 percent called it unjustified.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Military Affairs, Political Parties, and Hamas
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and North America

258. The Dacian Society: Fierce Warriors and Their Women Sources and Representations

Author:
Andrei Pogăciaş
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Hiperboreea
Institution:
Balkan History Association
Abstract:
There is not much information about the Dacian society and especially the role of women within it. There are few ancient sources who deal more with the Thracians and a few about the Getae and Dacians, but the majority speak about the men and their wars. It is not very difficult, however, to understand the role of women in a warrior society, although parallels must be drawn to other ancient civilizations in the area. From what we know from sources, representations on Trajan's Column and archaeology, Dacian common women were in charge with the most domestic activities, while the noble women wore gold and jewels. However, it is possible that, in the final days of the independent Dacian Kingdom, they all fought for their lives and children, while many of their husbands had already been killed.
Topic:
History, Military Affairs, and Ancient History
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Balkans, Rome, and Black Sea

259. Global Politics, Regional Competition: Great Power Politics in Central Asia

Author:
Artur Lakatos and András Kosztur
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Hiperboreea
Institution:
Balkan History Association
Abstract:
This paper deals with the issue of competing great power interests in Central Asia, known for specialists in international relations as the New Great Game. The focus is in first hand on interests of the “Big Four” global powers and secondly, on the interests of a series of regional powers which can bring decisive contributions to the New Great Game. The analysis has two directions: one concentrated on strategic analysis, and the second focused on economic interests.
Topic:
Power Politics, Military Affairs, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Europe and Central Asia

260. Freeing the “Rice Bowl of Asia”: How Changing Patterns of Interdependence are Driving Political Change in Myanmar

Author:
Alex Ripley
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for the Study of Security and Development, Dalhousie University
Abstract:
Wedged between Southeast Asia, China, and the Indian subcontinent, Myanmar occupies a strategically important space which will ensure its relevance to some of the 21st century’s most significant questions, including those surrounding trade routes, energy security, and the competing geopolitical ambitions of Asia’s great powers. Exciting and important changes are underway in Myanmar. After decades of isolation under military governments, the country is taking convincing steps toward democratization. The junta relinquished much of its power in 2010. In 2011, the unpopular Myitsone hydroelectric project was suspended, suggesting a new sensitivity to public opinion. Beginning that year, a nominally civilian government led by Thein Sein (a former Tatmadaw general) embarked on a series of major political and economic reforms. These culminated in the relatively open 2015 elections, in which the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD)—the party of Nobel Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi—won overwhelming majorities of both houses of parliament. In March 2016, parliament elected Htin Kyaw as the country’s first civilian president in half a century. What explains Myanmar’s relatively rapid transition from authoritarian pariah to fragile democracy? Perhaps international pressure forced the hand of the regime; then again, the West imposed sanctions on Myanmar for years before the military’s grip on power began to loosen. Lee Jones argues that the junta simply liberalized when its objectives were achieved.
Topic:
International Affairs, Military Affairs, Elections, Democracy, Economy, and Trade
Political Geography:
Asia and Myanmar