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681. Out of the desert: ISIS's strategy for a long war

Author:
Hassan Hassan
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
The collapse of ISIS’s caliphate and its subsequent flight from much of its former territory has been a triumph for the anti-ISIS coalition in Iraq and Syria. However, for ISIS, expulsion from former urban strongholds is the end of one chapter and the beginning of another: the group has since rolled out a well-developed strategy to assure its future resurgence. This paper examines ISIS’s actions, publications, and communications to determine its insurgency strategies and long-term organizational outlook, emphasizing sources that have been largely overlooked by forces fighting the group. By analyzing the strategies ISIS uses and has used in its previous incarnations, this paper argues that insurgent groups like ISIS will continue to operate within the ungoverned space along the Syria-Iraq border, and that if left unchecked, the group is likely to re-emerge
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Middle East and Global Focus

682. ‘On the Deck of the Titanic’: Arab Politics in Israel and the 2019 Elections

Author:
Itamar Radai
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
“On the deck of the Titanic,” thus sailed the members of the Joint List of Arab parties on the eve of the 2015 Knesset (parliamentary) elections, according to senior journalist Wadea Awawdy.[1] Four years later, in light of the results of the 2019 elections, it seems that this prophecy has almost materialized, even though the ships have narrowly escaped the iceberg, at least for the time being. The Hadash-Taʿal list attained 193,293 votes, equivalent to six seats in the Knesset, while Raʿam-Balad barely crossed the electoral threshold of 3.25 percent with 143,863 votes, giving them four seats. Arab voters’ turnout declined to a historic low of about 50 percent, as opposed to the overall turnout of around 68 percent.[2] The sharp drop in Arab voter turnout led to Arab parties’ political representation declining from 13 seats in 2015 to 10. Israeli Hebrew-language media coverage explained this change in terms of Arab alienation and marginalization. However, the mainstream Hebrew media outlets tend to neglect the coverage of Arab politics, including the election campaigns,[3] hence ignoring at large an important internal factor: the collapse of the Joint List on the eve of the 2019 elections, and its implications. This article will focus on the rise and dramatic fall of the Joint List, and its repercussions.
Topic:
International Relations, International Affairs, and Elections
Political Geography:
Middle East

683. Fiscal Sustainability in Mongolia in 2018

Author:
Tsolmon Baatarzorig, Nyambaatar Batbayar, and Ragchaasuren Galindev
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
In 2017, Mongolia received an extensive bailout package from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) under its Extended Fund Facility (EFF). Since taking the IMF loan, Mongolia has had good economic luck. A record high year of coal production combined with a surge in commodity prices has left the country with a budget revenue windfall. This has allowed gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 5.3 percent, which was higher than the forecasted 3 percent. Mongolia has reduced its fiscal deficit and public debt is declining. The country’s credit rating has improved and it has managed to repay two large foreign currency-denominated bonds. The government has also recently created a Fiscal Stability Council to improve budget oversight.
Topic:
International Affairs and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Mongolia and Global Focus

684. Tip-Toeing Toward Transparency: Jade and Gemstone Sector Disclosures in Myanmar

Author:
Paul Shortell
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Myanmar exports more than 90 percent of global jade supply and is also a leading source of high-quality rubies, sapphires and other varieties of colored gemstones. Mining of these precious stones generates billions of dollars annually, making it one of the country’s most significant sectors. Yet the jade and gemstone industry has remained largely shrouded in secrecy, with most profits flowing to armed groups and political elites rather than supporting broad-based economic and social development.1 The Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) is a global standard designed to “promote the open and accountable management of oil, gas and mineral resources.”2 Since Myanmar became a candidate country in 2014, the EITI process has helped to shine light on the previously opaque jade and gemstone sector. Myanmar EITI released its first reconciliation report, covering fiscal year
Topic:
International Affairs and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Global Focus

685. Ukraine Legislates Extractives Sector Transparency and Accountability

Author:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
In September 2018, Ukraine passed milestone legislation setting out principles for the collection, disclosure and dissemination of extractive industry data. The law mandates project-level payments and beneficial ownership data disclosure. It also mandates the release of “material” elements of extractive industry-related contracts. The law was bolstered by a government-approved reform action plan, incorporating measures proposed by a Ukrainian civil society organization with NRGI support. DiXi Group contributed to data on Ukraine in the Resource Governance Index, and the organization’s experience informed an important public debate in the parliament’s energy committee. This is the beginning of an era of transparency and accountability in Ukraine. NRGI will continue to provide assistance so that the laws and roadmap are implemented.
Topic:
International Affairs and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Ukraine

686. Civil Society Playing Key Role in Extractive Sector Reform in OnceAutocratic Tunisia

Author:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
A central challenge of Tunisia’s transition out of dictatorship has been finding a way to implement democratic reforms in a country where citizens place little trust in the volatile, post-authoritarian institutions. One pre-requisite for trust is dialogue; if civil society actors don’t have a forum for exchange with the government, they can’t be heard, and trust remains elusive. Social tensions (sometimes manifesting as protests) are high in Tunisia, and the government’s responses have been mostly ineffective.
Topic:
International Affairs and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Tunisia

687. Reaching Wider Populations with Global Online Courses

Author:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Despite the critical relevance of natural resources to millions of peoples’ lives, most citizens of resource-rich countries have limited knowledge about how resources are governed. To address this knowledge gap, the Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI) developed two online training tools aimed at generating critical awareness and building technical knowledge about core resource governance issues. The first tool is a massive open online course (MOOC), “Natural Resources for Sustainable Development: The Fundamentals of Oil, Gas and Mining Governance.” The second is an online simulation called “Petronia,” named for an imaginary oil-rich country.
Topic:
International Affairs and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Global Focus

688. Addressing China's Coercion in the Taiwan Strait

Author:
Ted Yoho
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
The Project 2049 Institute is pleased to announce the publication of remarks made by Congressman Ted Yoho [R-FL] at our event, “Addressing China’s Coercive Air Power in the Taiwan Strait.” Congressman Yoho, Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee on Asia and the Pacific, asserts his commitment to protecting the interests of Taiwan despite the recent growing aggressive actions and coercive language of Beijing, directed under General Secretary Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party. In addition, Congressman Yoho addressed the fact that China’s declaration of the new M503 flight path is just one part of their larger strategic plan to quell Taiwan, which motivates him to continue to push the U.S. administration and Congress to prioritize Taiwan and to work to meet the mounting challenges with which China presents us.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

689. Turkish-German Relations From Conjunctural Cooperation to the Solution of Structural Issues

Author:
Zeliha Eliaçık
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
To the contrary of its relatively “new” relations with the United States of America, Turkey’s relations with the West have been established and continued via Europe since the period of the Ottoman Empire.1 The military alliance and cooperation initiated between Turkey and Germany in the late 19th century have gained a human dimension in the frame of the “Turkish Labor Force Agreement” signed upon the settlement of Turkish workers in Germany in the 20th century. Bilateral relations have been maintained without interruption despite occasional fluctuations in the intensity of these relations. Recently, the two countries have maintained closer ties as they both are affected by the U.S. sanctions and “trade wars.”
Topic:
International Relations, International Cooperation, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Turkey, Germany, and Global Focus

690. How Will the U.S. Withdrawal from Syria Change Dynamics of the Conflict?

Author:
Murat Yeşiltaş and Omar Özkızılcık
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
On December 19, 2018, U.S. officials stated that the Pentagon has an order to move troops out of Syria as quickly as possible, and began to inform partners in northeastern Syria of their plans to begin an immediate pullback of American forces from the region where they have been trying to wrap up the campaign against the Daesh. Shortly after the Washington Journal report, President Trump wrote on Twitter, “We have defeated ISIS in Syria, my only reason for being there during the Trump Presidency.” In a statement, White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders confirmed, “We have started returning United States troops home as we transition to the next phase of this campaign.” She pointed out that “[t]hese victories over ISIS in Syria do not signal the end of the Global Coalition or its campaign.” Additionally, U.S. officials told Reuters that all U.S. State Department personnel are being evacuated from Syria within 24 hours and U.S. troops will pull out of Syria in a time frame of between 60 to 100 days. This development came after Turkey’s military decisiveness to clear its border of the terrorist threat, Turkey’s airstrikes against PKK positions on the Sinjar and Karajak Mountains in Iraq, and the phone call between President Erdogan and Trump. The decision by Trump will be a turning point in the Syrian conflict, but how this development will reshape Turkish-American bilateral..
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Syria