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461. How to Make Causal Inferences with Time-Series Cross-Sectional Data under Selection on Observables

Author:
Matthew Blackwell and Adam Glynn
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-Dem)
Abstract:
Repeated measurements of the same countries, people, or groups over time are vital to many fields of political science. These measurements, sometimes called time-series cross-sectional (TSCS) data, allow researchers to estimate a broad set of causal quantities, including contemporaneous and lagged treatment effects. Unfortunately, popular methods for TSCS data can only produce valid inferences for lagged effects under very strong assumptions. In this paper, we use potential outcomes to define causal quantities of interest in this settings and clarify how standard models like the autoregressive distributed lag model can produce biased estimates of these quantities due to post-treatment conditioning. We then describe two estimation strategies that avoid these post-treatment biases—inverse probability weighting and structural nested mean models—and show via simulations that they can outperform standard approaches in small sample settings. We illustrate these methods in a study of how welfare spending affects terrorism.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

462. Self-Censorship in Authoritarian States: Response bias in measures of popular support in China

Author:
Daniel Robinson and Marcus Tannenberg
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-Dem)
Abstract:
The study of popular support for authoritarian regimes, and the comparative study of political attitudes, has long relied on the assumption that survey respondents provide truthful answers on surveys. However, when measuring regime support in closed political systems there is a distinct risk that individuals are less than forthright due to fear that their opinions may be made known to the public or the authorities. In order to test this assumption, we conducted a novel web-based survey in China in which we included four list experiments of commonly used items in the comparative literature on regime support. We find systematic bias for all four measures as a result of selfcensorship; substantially more individuals state that they support the regime with direct questioning than do when presented with our anonymous, indirect list experiments. The level of self-censorship, which ranges from 16 to 22 percentage points, is considerably higher than previously thought. Selfcensorship is further most prevalent among the wealthy, urban, female and younger respondents. These findings indicate that prior studies that have found high levels of support for the Chinese regime using these particular measures likely overestimate the true level of support. Further, crossnational studies which compare popular support across regime type may be systematically biased if responses are not subject to the same level of falsification across regime types.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

463. Introducing the Historical Varieties of Democracy Dataset: Political Institutions in the Long 19th Century

Author:
Carl Henrik Knutsen
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-Dem)
Abstract:
The Historical Varieties of Democracy Dataset (Historical V-Dem) is a new dataset containing about 260 indicators, both factual and evaluative, describing various aspects of political regimes and state institutions. The dataset covers 91 polities globally – including most large, sovereign states, as well as some semi-sovereign entities and large colonies – from 1789 to 1920 for many cases. The majority of the indicators are also included in the Varieties of Democracy dataset, which covers the period from 1900 to the present – and together these two datasets cover the bulk of “modern history”. Historical V-Dem also includes several new indicators, covering features that are pertinent for 19thcentury polities. We describe the data, the process of coding, and the different strategies employed in Historical V-Dem to cope with issues of reliability and validity and ensure inter-temporal- and cross-country comparability. To illustrate the potential uses of the dataset we provide a descriptive account of patterns of democratization in the “long 19th century.” Finally, we perform an empirical investigation of how inter-state war relates to subsequent democratization.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

464. Reassessing the Democratic Peace: A Novel Test Based on the Varieties of Democracy Data

Author:
Håvard Hegre, Michael Bernhard, and Jan Teorell
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-Dem)
Abstract:
The democratic peace is one of the most robust findings in international relations. Yet it suffers from two important limitations. First, even those who fully embrace the democratic peace have difficulty precisely identifying which facet of democracy drives the result. Second, the vast majority of studies have relied on a single measure of democracy – the Polity index. This paper reassesses interstate conflict on several new measures of democracy and their disaggregated components from the Varieties of Democracy project in a global sample of 173 countries from 1900–2010 (www.v-dem.net). We theorize three distinct mechanisms of constraint that may explain why some countries do not engage in military conflict with each other: formal vertical (e.g. elections), informal vertical (e.g. civil society activism), and horizontal accountability (e.g. interbranch constraint on the executive). We find that the formal vertical channels of accountability provided by elections are not as crucial as horizontal constraint and the informal vertical accountability provided by a strong civil society.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

465. On Revolutions

Author:
Armand M Leroi et al
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-Dem)
Abstract:
Sometimes the normal course of events is disrupted by a particularly swift and profound change. Historians have often referred to such changes as "revolutions" and, though they have identied many of them, they have rarely supported their claims with statistical evidence. Here we present a method to identify revolutions based on a measure of the multivariate rate of change called Foote Novelty. We dene revolutions as those periods of time when the value of this measure, F, can, by a non-parametric test, be shown to be signicantly greater than the background rate. Our method also identies conservative periods when the rate of change is unusually low. Importantly, our method permits searching for revolutions over any time scale that the data permit. We apply it to several quantitative data sets that capture long-term political, social and cultural changes and, in some of them, identify revolutions, both well known and not. Our method is a general one that can be applied to any phenomenon captured by multivariate time series data of sufficient quality.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

466. The Global Innovation Sweepstakes: A Quest to Win the Future

Author:
Atlantic Council
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Please join us on Tuesday, June 26 from 9:00 a.m. to 11:00 a.m. for a tour of the world’s most innovative places and a discussion on what today’s technology trends mean for the future security and prosperity of the United States. During this event, we will launch a new report: The Global Innovation Sweepstakes: A Quest to Win the Future. The Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, in partnership with Qualcomm, embarked on a global tour of technology hubs to determine which ones are at the cutting edges of tech-based innovation—and which are at risk of falling behind. Our researchers visited nearly a dozen countries and spoke with almost two hundred experts. Will China overtake the United States? Can Europe rise to the challenge? Why are small states often the most innovative? This new report seeks to answer these questions—and others raised by the unfolding technological revolution. It also provides policy recommendations for research and development, skills training, technology transfer, diversity, education, and more.
Topic:
International Political Economy, Science and Technology, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

467. China’s Global Investment: Neither the US nor Belt and Road

Author:
Derek Scissors
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
China is investing much less in the US than it did just a year ago. It has never invested much in the Belt and Road. Yet China’s global investment spending remains healthy, with impressive diversification across countries and the reemergence of private firms.
Topic:
International Political Economy and International Affairs
Political Geography:
China

468. Shops and the City Evidence on Local Externalities and Local Government Policy from Big-Box Bankruptcies∗

Author:
Daniel Shoag and Stan Veuger
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
We report three findings. First, using evidence from chain bankruptcies and data on 12 million to 18 million establishments per year, we show that large retailers produce significant positive spillovers. Second, local governments respond to the size of these externalities. When a town’s boundaries allow it to capture a larger share of retail spillovers, it is more likely to offer retail subsidies. Third, these subsidies partially crowd out private sector mechanisms that also subsidize large retailers, such as shopping malls. These facts provide powerful evidence of the Coase theorem at work and highlight a concern for local development policies even when externalities can be targeted.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
America

469. A Survey of AEI’s Work on the Middle East

Author:
Danielle Pletka
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
In connection with an assessment of AEI’s work on the Middle East over the past two decades, I drafted the following survey. The arc of our scholarship in this critical region is fascinating and illuminates the continuity and evolution of the challenges the United States faces in the Middle East. What is ultimately clear is that in the region both the challenge of destructive ideas and the fostering of better ones will shape outcomes.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Middle East

470. What Does One Do to Get Fired Around Here? An Analysis of Teacher Dismissals in Georgia

Author:
Andrew Saultz
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
A majority of teacher dismissal cases in Atlanta from 2011 to 2017 were related to issues of professionalism, including not showing up for work, not following a directive from a supervisor, or not completing tasks (i.e., grading).
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
America