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371. The Wests's Turkey Conundrum

Author:
Amanda Sloat
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Policymakers in the United States and European Union are struggling with how to manage their relations with Turkey. What makes the country such a conundrum is that its problematic leadership faces real threats. Turkey is confronting challenges from the aftermath of the July 2016 coup attempt and the destabilizing effects of the Syrian war. Yet the country’s president is growing more authoritarian, using virulent anti-Western rhetoric, and making foreign policy choices contrary to the interests of the trans-Atlantic alliance. The policy goal is navigating this gray zone today to preserve the possibility of better relations in the future.
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Turkey

372. Normal is Over

Author:
Constanze Stelzenmüller
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Year one of the Trump administration has been uniquely unnerving. Yet the trans-Atlantic security community has also been breathing a sigh of relief, because many of their worst expectations seem to have been averted: trade wars, an attack on North Korea, the end of NATO. The conventional wisdom in Washington, DC and many European capitals today is that—despite a president who continues to defy conventions—U.S.-European relations have largely normalized. As a result, most Europeans are attempting to ride out what they believe to be a temporary aberration of American politics with a mixture of hugging and hedging. There is certainly evidence for a normalization of U.S. foreign policy, not least in the president’s formal endorsement of NATO’s mutual defense clause, and the reinforcement of American contributions to reassurance and deterrence in Eastern Europe. There are also many signs that the past year has re-energized American civil society, belying determinist critics in Europe. But Trumpism needs to be recognized as a massive discontinuity. Trump is the first postwar American president to question the liberal order as such. In its purest form, the “America First” doctrine has implications for the EU and some of its member states (especially Germany) that should be of intense concern to Europeans. Europeans should worry even more, however, about its fundamentalist critique of globalization (which it refers to as globalism) as a quasiadversarial ideology. The globalization-globalism dichotomy, unlike all previous transAtlantic disagreements, is a dispute about the nature of the world we live in. And it is a wedge that could drive the United States and Europe apart. America could attempt (at immense cost to itself) to decouple from the liberal world order and the global economy. But for Europe to do so would be suicidal. This flips the existing logic of the trans-Atlantic alliance on its head: it is Europe now that has the greater—and for it, existential—interest in preserving an international order that safeguards peace and globalization
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

373. Borrowers with Large Balances: Rising Student Debt and Falling Repayment Rates

Author:
Adam Looney and Constantine Yannelis
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
We examine the distribution of student loan balances and repayment rates in the United States using administrative student loan data. We show that increases in credit limits and expansions in credit availability resulted in rising borrowing amounts, and that the share of borrowers holding very large balances has surged. For instance, the share of borrowers leaving school with more than $50,000 of federal student debt increased from 2 percent in 1992 to 17 percent in 2014. Consequently, a small share of borrowers now owes the majority of loan dollars in the United States. Although these large-balance borrowers have historically strong labor market outcomes and low rates of default, repayment rates have slowed significantly between 1990 and 2014 reflecting, in part, changes in the characteristics of students, the schools they attended, and the rising amounts borrowed. A decomposition analysis indicates that changes in the types of institutions attended, student demographics, default rates, and increased participation of alternative repayment plans and forbearance largely explain the decrease in student loan repayment.
Topic:
Education and International Affairs
Political Geography:
America

374. Trump, Xi and the eclipse of the liberal world order

Author:
Andreas Bøje Forsby
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Until recently, we were operating under the assumption that the liberal world order would prove sufficiently inclusive, productive and resilient to serve as a stable framework for international cooperation. But such optimism seems increasingly unwarranted as a wide host of existential challenges have materialized, including the return of geopolitics, the resurgence of autocratic leadership, the revival of economic protectionism and the rising tide of populism and nationalism.
Topic:
International Political Economy and International Affairs
Political Geography:
America

375. Fighting Military Corruption in Fragile States

Author:
Louise Riis Andersen
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Anti-corruption is central to building capable and legitimate security institutions in fragile states. However, military capacity-building programs often do not include anti-corruption measures. Denmark should strive to put the fight against military corruption on the international agenda
Topic:
Corruption, International Affairs, and Global Security
Political Geography:
Global Focus

376. Urban Insecurity, Migrants and Political Authority

Author:
Helene Maria Kyed, Finn Stepputat, Lars Erslev Andersen, and Maya Mynster Christensen
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
By 2035 an estimated 60 per cent of the world’s population will live in cities. Due to the fast-growing rate of urbanisation, many future conflicts are expected to take place in urban terrains. Therefore defence and security organisations are becoming increasingly interested in understanding the trends and dynamics of cities. This report under the DIIS Defense and Security Projects contributes with a deepened understanding of the security challenges in four cities – Nairobi, Beirut, Hargeisa and Yangon – with a particular focus on mass migration and political authority.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

377. Encryption Policy in Democratic Regimes

Author:
Tony Bricktua and Abigail Lawson
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Report Recommends Approaches to Meet Needs of Law Enforcement While Managing Risks to Cybersecurity and Privacy
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

378. Environmental Challenges in a Conflictive Environment

Author:
Wael Abdul-Shafi and Jan Hanrath
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
The repercussions of climate change and environmental challenges pose enormous risks to Iran and Saudi Arabia alike. While there are differences in geography and climate in both countries, they also have many environmental challenges in common. Problems such as sand and dust storms or diminishing water resources are border-crossing phenomena that no country can deal with alone; therefore, cooperation is key. At this point in time, however, willingness to cooperate is utterly lacking in a region marked by geo-strategic rivalries, ongoing military conflicts and deep-rooted mutual distrust between regional rivals, and between Saudi Arabia and Iran in particular.
Topic:
Environment and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

379. Belgian Defence in 2018: Regeneration Time?

Author:
Alexander Mattelaer
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The Belgian defence budget for 2018 increases by a factor of 4.7 in commitment credits. Not only does this allow for offsetting the significant investment shortfalls of the previous years, it also provides a window of opportunity for regenerating the Belgian armed forces with a view to meeting future challenges. This Security Policy Brief makes the case that the longawaited modernisation of the major weapon systems needs to go hand in hand with a significant recruitment effort to address the critical human resources situation the Ministry of Defence finds itself in. Yet adding up personnel and equipment, the 25,000-strong force structure outlined in the Strategic Vision still risks being insufficient for meeting future requirements as they emerge in both the national and the international context (NATO/EU). As such, defence planners will need to engage with the question how best to redevelop the force structure from this minimum baseline in function of how the strategic environment evolves. For strengthening Belgium’s national security and diplomatic position in the twenty-first century the present window of opportunity is not to be missed.
Topic:
Defense Policy and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Belgium

380. The Quest for a Regional Order in the Middle East

Author:
Marc Otte
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The Middle East is once again going through a period of war and upheaval, including mass murder of civilians, state failure, transnational terrorism, sectarian wars, physical and societal destruction, massive arms purchases, use of nonconventional weapons (notably chemical) and a permanent risk of proliferation of WMD. These developments are a threat to the region, but also to the rest of the world and to Europe in particular. The current turmoil should not be underestimated for its potential to trigger an even bigger hot war that could involve other players, if only because of miscalculations by some of the parties involved.
Topic:
International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Middle East