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1. Over-Indebtedness in Central Africa: Causes, Consequences, and Reform Strategies

Author:
Stephane Atangana
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
The CEMAC region is facing a concerning situation of over-indebtedness, exacerbated by external shocks and the volatility of commodity prices. This brief aims to analyze the structural and economic causes of over-indebtedness in CEMAC countries while formulating policy recommendations to improve debt management and enhance economic resilience. Targeted at policymakers, financial institutions, and regional bodies in Central Africa, this work relies on an econometric analysis using a mixed model (Multilevel Random Effects) based on data from 2010 to 2022. Key indicators include external debt and public debt service. The findings reveal a strong dependence on external debt, while fiscal reforms have a limited short-term impact. Structural reforms are essential to reduce debt vulnerabilities. Additionally, regional coordination is recommended to improve debt sustainability through institutional reforms, increased fiscal discipline, and economic diversification. However, this analysis does not account for potential global economic shocks that could affect the region.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Reform, Diversification, and Financial Institutions
Political Geography:
Africa and Central Africa

2. Maximising EU Concessional Finance for Greater Leverage and Impact: An Options Spread

Author:
Mikaela Gavas, Samuel Pleeck, Andrew Rogerson, San Bilal, and Karim Karaki
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
Already constrained by the economic aftershocks of COVID-19, the impact of the war in Ukraine, and the food and climate crisis, low-income countries and lower-middle-income countries now face a combination of soaring debt and high interest rates. Confronted with insufficient liquidity to respond to these challenges and unable to access capital markets, they need additional concessional finance, in the form of grants and soft loans. The European Union (EU) already provides concessional finance, but it is not nearly enough to respond to their growing needs. With European budgets under more strain than ever, this paper puts forward the case for finding ways to maximise the overall efficiency and impact of European concessional finance and in doing so, better articulating and combining grants and concessional loans in its support and investment toolbox. To remain relevant and maintain relationships and influence with partner countries–even more in a world characterised by the polycrisis and geopolitical fragmentation–the EU will have to step up its game when it comes to providing more strategic concessional finance. The paper sets out six complementary and non-mutually exclusive options for maximising EU concessional finance with a view to a strategic set of decisions to be made for the next EU Multiannual Financial Framework.
Topic:
Development, European Union, Financial Institutions, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:
Europe

3. Finance For Zero: Redefining Financial-Sector Action to Achieve Global Climate Goals

Author:
Lisa Sachs, Nora Mardirossian, and Perrine Toledano
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
As of 2023, the financial system is woefully misaligned with the world’s climate goals. Six times the current annual level of investment in non-fossil fuel investments is needed between 2023 and 2030 to stay on a 1.5ºC warming pathway.1 The ratio of clean-energy lending and equity underwriting by banks relative to fossil fuels needs to reach 4 to 1 by 2030, whereas for 1,142 assessed banks, the ratio was between 0.8 and 1 at the end of 2021.2 As providers, underwriters, and fiduciaries of trillions of dollars of capital flows annually, financial institutions (FIs) play a critical role in decarbonizing the economy and scaling access to clean, affordable energy. Optimally, the roles and opportunities for the financial sector should be guided by an official pathway and associated policy tools, such as carbon pricing, public finance and guarantees, strategic subsidies, sectoral regulations, and so on. Unfortunately, that policy framework to shape and guide the financial sector does not yet exist. In the absence of strong government leadership, there has been a proliferation of bottomup models, tools, metrics, methodologies, and initiatives designed to measure and evaluate the climate performance of financial institutions. While the rapid growth of these initiatives demonstrates the financial sector’s engagement, meaningful progress in realigning global finance to support climate goals has been limited. These frameworks and tools often overstate or misrepresent the extent to which they support meaningful action toward achieving climate goals, and at times rely on misaligned targets or metrics that undermine their effectiveness as tools for setting or assessing corporate commitments. Overall, existing commitments and strategies are not sufficiently aligned with the actions needed from financial sector actors to achieve climate goals. There are deep and inherent limitations to bottom-up approaches to achieving decarbonization, some that are within the capability of financial institutions to address but many that are beyond their remit. This report focuses on the things the financial sector can and should do even in the absence of a robust long-term policy framework. Part 1 of this report urges FIs and their alliances to be clear in their commitments, pledges, and communications about their climate-related objectives and corresponding strategies, their limitations, if any, and how they measure success. Current climate-related pledges, alliances, frameworks, and tools at times confuse or conflate risk mitigation with climate action, relying on targets and metrics that may not be fit for purpose. Whether intentionally or unintentionally, FIs and their alliances can misrepresent or overstate the effectiveness of their approaches in contributing to climate action. This misrepresentation can be exacerbated by the use of misleading metrics or strategies, such as selling or legally spinning off high-emitting assets or using offsets in net-zero pathways. FIs should communicate clearly and accurately about their climate-related pledges and commitments, including whether their goal is to contribute to climate action or to mitigate their own financial risk and how their business strategies will be aligned to achieve those goals. FIs should ensure that targets, metrics, and methodologies are aligned with their goals and business strategies and do not misrepresent the effectiveness of their strategies. FIs’ commitments and strategies are shaped by their financial interests and their interpretation of their fiduciary and other legal duties and obligations; because of perceived tensions between legal obligations and certain climate-oriented strategies, FIs and their alliances should provide clear, public explanations of how their interpreted fiduciary and other legal duties shape their climate-related strategies. Part 2 of this report proposes how financial institutions can and should contribute to, and not undermine, climate goals, under current policy conditions. While many of these actions are relevant for a risk-mitigating approach for FIs and their alliances, these recommendations go beyond risk mitigation in order to guide those FIs and their beneficiaries that seek to have real climate impact.
Topic:
Climate Change, Investment, Sustainability, Financial Institutions, and Financial Systems
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4. The international role of the euro and the dollar: Forever in the lead?

Author:
Martin Mühleisen
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The international monetary system has been surprisingly resilient over the past two years, considering the size of pandemic and geopolitical shocks that hit markets during this period. Liquidity injections by the major central banks helped stabilize economic activity and avoid disruptions to capital flows or foreign exchange markets. Major exchange rates remained range-bound throughout most of the crisis, even if the dollar has appreciated sharply in recent months. Volatility is likely to pick up as monetary policy responds to high inflation, but there should be no doubt that the dollar-based monetary order has withstood a major test during the past two years. This feat has been even more remarkable as the global security landscape has deteriorated in dramatic fashion, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has brought international tensions to a level not seen since the 1961 Cuban missile crisis. Moreover, while the dollar’s safe haven status remains firmly established, the center of global economic activity has been shifting east. Asia has become an economic powerhouse, and China is on course to become the world’s largest economy over the next few years. It is a natural question whether China will challenge the United States and Europe for global economic leadership, and whether the renminbi will appear as a leading, if not dominant, currency. This paper argues that this is unlikely for the foreseeable future, in part because a larger global role for the renminbi would be inconsistent with the Chinese leadership’s current policy priorities. However, there is no room for complacency. With the post-World War II international order in gradual decline, the world could again reach a moment where unforeseen geopolitical events might lead to changes in long-held political and economic paradigms. The United States and Europe can reduce this risk by making their growth models more robust and sustainable. Moreover, keeping their global alliances intact could prevent a loss of influence that has heralded changes in the international monetary system in the past.
Topic:
Economic Growth, Currency, Financial Institutions, Digital Policy, Digital Currency, Dollar, and Euro
Political Geography:
Europe and United States of America

5. Improving tax policy in Latin America and the Caribbean: A balancing act

Author:
Felipe Larraín B. and Pepe Zhang
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Latin America and the Caribbean is in the midst of a delicate economic transition, with five of the LAC6 countries attempting a tax reform before their GDPs recovered to pre-pandemic levels.1 As the region confronts rising inflation, the economic spillovers of the war in Ukraine, and budgetary pressures left behind by the pandemic, governments should improve their taxation systems to rebuild fiscal stability, stimulate growth, and enhance equity – a delicate balancing act among overlapping policy priorities. Regional taxes are a heavy administrative burden, requiring nearly twice the time to complete in LAC as in the OECD.2 At the same time, the region struggles with average tax evasion of 5.6 percent of GDP3 and a continued overreliance on corporate income taxes.4 With still-high public debts and fiscal deficits, governments must respond by implementing policies to streamline and modernize revenue collection and management. What are the pros and cons and trade-offs involved in increasing or decreasing the region’s three main taxes (VAT, PIT, and CIT)? How can governments optimize enforcement and collection without resorting to rate changes? What policies outside the tax authority are needed to support tax reforms? How can policymakers better navigate the thorny politics of tax reforms? The following pages provide new analysis and concrete recommendations to address these questions. Drawing on the powerful expertise of its authors in addition to valuable commentary and insight from private, nonpartisan strategy sessions, legal experts, and regional governments, this report is a strong addition to the Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center’s #ProactiveLAC Series, which aims to provide insight and foresight to LAC countries on how to advance economic reactivation and long-term prosperity.
Topic:
Markets, Reform, Economic Growth, Tax Systems, Macroeconomics, Fiscal Policy, Financial Institutions, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Latin America and Caribbean

6. ESG Policy Trends in South Korea's Public Institutions

Author:
Hochang Song
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
In Korea, public institutions play a critical role in the national economy. Korean public institutions not only provide public services to the market but also influence various private enterprises by entering procurement contracts. Thus, it is meaningful to review and analyze the ESG policies and trends in Korean public institutions, since they may have a broader effect. Public institutions are established and supported by government investment. Due to this government support, public institutions find it unnecessary to receive investment from the private sector or funding from financial institutions, which means the government is the key stakeholder with the largest influence on public institutions in terms of ESG policies. In this context, the Korean government unveiled the “Economic Policy Direction for H2 2021” in June 2021, announcing that it would take measures to “ensure that public institutions will play a leading role in implementing ESG-based management.” The 2021 policy direction itself built upon several years of effort to implement ESG policy.
Topic:
Economy, Financial Institutions, Public-Private Partnership, and Public Institutions
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

7. Central Banks' Responses to COVID-19 in ASEAN Economies

Author:
Charan Singh and Panitra Kumar Jena
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
The effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on public health, social life, economic conditions, and financial markets has been significant for Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) economies. The main objective of this study is to understand the response of central banks to COVID-19 in 10 ASEAN economies, i.e., Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. In this study, panel data as well as time-series data have been used to see the impact of COVID-19 on macroeconomic variables and financial variables. The period of the study ranges from 23 January 2020 to 11 December 2020. The first part of the study shows the trend analysis of macroeconomic variables of ASEAN economies and a descriptive analysis of various measures taken by the central banks of ASEAN economics. Further, a comparative analysis of monetary measures with advanced countries is depicted. Further, empirical findings of ARCH and GARCH indicate that recent as well as past COVID-19 news has a significant impact on stock market volatility in select ASEAN countries.
Topic:
Banks, Fiscal Policy, Pandemic, COVID-19, Financial Institutions, and Banking
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

8. Strategies for reforming Afghanistan’s illicit networks

Author:
Harris Samad and Fatima Salman
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
This report explores illicit networks in Afghanistan in the context of peacebuilding, democratic consolidation, and enhancing state capacity. Existing literature on the topic is sparse. While the 1990s saw study of the subject matter as tangential to international arms and drug trafficking policies, this period laid the foundation for renewed interest on the issue partially catalyzed by the 2001 US-led invasion. The 2008 global financial crisis shifted this lens toward one of countering the financing of terrorism strategies, corruption, and money laundering. The current day reflects a broadening of how illicit networks are analyzed beyond sector-specific policies; that is, the subject matter today encompasses more of the sectors that make it profitable, rather than focusing only on the most relevant component at a given time. Indeed, it is an internationalized issue, encompassing the smuggling of different goods and involving individuals of varying motivations and capacities within and without Afghanistan. Illicit networks can be broadly understood at three main levels: hyper-local, national, and international. At a hyper-local level, illicit networks represent a series of interpersonal relationships that facilitate the exchange of goods and compensation (taking many forms) beyond the reach of central law enforcement or political authority. Nationally, illicit networks comprise regional and countrywide patronage, criminal, and insurgent networks that organize and profiteer from the hyper-local relationships on a macro level. Internationally, actors with reach outside of the country move illicitly gained goods such as poppy, talc, methamphetamine, minerals, and others, as well as people via human trafficking, into trading hubs in Iran, Pakistan, and the Gulf for export into international markets. They then use poorly regulated financial institutions throughout the world (notably, Western and Gulf banking systems) to store funds, some of which make their way back to Afghanistan (though this phenomenon is particularly difficult to track). This report outlines several specific policy recommendations that will be necessary to combat the illicit networks in a manner that supports the durability of the ongoing peace process in Afghanistan and the continued consolidation of its fragile democratic institutions. These recommendations include the following: For Afghanistan: Provide a path for illicit actors into the formal economy; Generate political will and support; Establish high-level Afghan support for countering illicit trafficking; and upholding the rule of law; Implement enhanced border management; Expand the negotiating table to include more localized narratives; Strengthen and internationalize counter-threat finance strategies For the United States: Support a comprehensive economic settlement; Ensure future interoperability between Afghan and US security forces For regional stakeholders: Provide access to global markets to enhance regional trade integration; Cut off regional and international components of networks to reduce viability and profitability via neighborhood watchdogs, in conjunction with the United States
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Arms Trade, Trafficking, Financial Institutions, and Non-Traditional Threats
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and South Asia

9. Who Are These Bond Vigilantes Anyway? The Political Economy of Sovereign Debt Ownership in the Eurozone

Author:
Tobias Arbogast
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
This paper examines the ownership structure of eurozone public debt and the distribu- tional consequences thereof. Through both a comparative perspective and an explorative case study of Italy, this paper asks two research questions. Firstly, it asks who holds gov- ernment debt in Spain, France, Germany, and Italy. I focus in on Italy to provide, to the author’s knowledge, the first highly disaggregated view of the holding structure of public debt. Secondly, for Italy I study distributional effects by examining who benefits from the interest received on government debt. This is accomplished through an investigation of the various stakeholders associated with public debt. Results indicate that most of the public debt is held by private and public financial institutions but rarely directly by households. Both direct and indirect beneficiaries of the interest received on government bonds in Italy turn out to be largely wealthy households, reflecting the unequal ownership of wealth more generally. However, prominent public financial institutions are also significant beneficiaries, which likely ameliorates a possible regressive distributional effect of the public debt hold- ing structure. The paper discusses the results with an eye on inequality and contributes to further study of the political economy of public debt.
Topic:
Debt, Inequality, Financial Institutions, and Public Debt
Political Geography:
France, Germany, Spain, and Italy

10. Toward a Discursive Approach to Growth Models Social Blocs in the Politics of Digital Transformation

Author:
Sidney Rothstein
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
The growth models perspective analyzes the role of social blocs in crafting countries’ eco- nomic policies, but its treatment of business power as purely structural prevents it from ad- dressing an important question in the politics of digital transformation: How have new sec- tors with miniscule economic footprints been able to influence economic policy? This paper explores how tech and venture capital successfully lobbied for financial deregulation at the beginning of digital transformation in the United States. The paper argues that explaining the role of social blocs in digital transformation requires incorporating discourse analysis and develops a conceptual framework around three discursive components in the dynamics of social blocs: coordination, persuasion, and performativity. This framework contributes to theory development in the growth models perspective and illustrates how the concept of social blocs can help make sense of the politics of digital transformation.
Topic:
Regulation, Digital Economy, Financial Institutions, and Discourse
Political Geography:
United States and North America