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272. The Use of Predictive Analysis Programs in Police Intelligence: A European Comparison / El uso de programas de análisis predictivo en la inteligencia policial: una comparativa europea
- Author:
- Virginia Cinelli and Alberto Manrique Gan
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
- Institution:
- International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
- Abstract:
- Nowadays, two main limitations persist in intelligence analysis: the intrinsic existence of a certain degree of uncertainty and the large volume of information available. In order to face these problems, since the end of the 90s, technology and statistics have been used in the field of security to tackle the analytical limitations of human beings, improving their performances. As a result, professionals in the crime prevention areas started using technology in investigation to calculate the probability that a (criminal) event might occur in the future. Such a phenomenon is also called predictive analysis. Today, Europe stands out both for the number and the type of predictive programs implemented in different national contexts. The main objective of this article is to analyze the phenomenon of predictive policing in the European context through a comparative analysis of 6 cases study in 5 different countries (Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom) to, firstly, assess the implications in the improvement of the security context of the European Union, and secondly, to detect the innovative cases within this framework.
- Topic:
- Crime, Intelligence, Science and Technology, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, France, Germany, Italy, and Netherlands
273. What’s in the CARDs?
- Author:
- Ronald Van Reybroeck
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- The Foreign Affairs Council on 19 November 2018 agreed to launch the CARD (Coordinated Annual Review on Defence) as a standing activity aimed at offering a better overview at EU level of defence spending, national investment and defence research efforts. Ministers of Defence tasked the European Defence Agency (EDA) to launch the first full CARD cycle in autumn 2019. How did we get here and, more importantly, what does the CARD have in store?
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Military Spending
- Political Geography:
- Europe
274. The Resurgence of Bilateral Diplomacy in Europe
- Author:
- Alexander Mattelaer
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- As the conduct of international relations is changing in tone, bilateral diplomacy is back in vogue. This trend does not leave the European continent unaffected: intergovernmental bargaining is on the rise. Many EU member state capitals make good use of their diplomatic network across the continent to better understand what other member states aspire to achieve, and to promote their own voice within the European system. This Egmont Paper seeks to shed conceptual clarity on the resurgence of bilateral diplomacy in Europe. Firstly, it argues that in the absence of multilateral successes, bilateral approaches constitute the fall-back position for structuring the international system. Secondly, it explains in what ways bilateral networks add political depth to intra-European relationships. Thirdly, it addresses the question whether the revival of bilateralism in Europe inevitably undermines supranational institutions. It concludes one must appreciates the conspicuous complementarity between the two approaches: bilateralism and multilateralism may well alternate in prominence, but can also reinforce one another. By way of postscript, it considers the implications this analysis entails for Belgium’s diplomatic posture.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Bilateral Relations, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Belgium
275. Fighting for Europe. European Strategic Autonomy and the Use of Force
- Author:
- Sven Biscop
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- Strategic autonomy: yes! But to do what exactly? To protect ourselves, or to protect others, outside Europe, as well? To protect ourselves by defeating the enemy on his own ground, in Europe’s neighbourhood or further afield? Or only by making sure he doesn’t breach the walls of Europe? To protect us from all enemies, or only from some? Who is the “enemy” anyway? The June 2016 European Union Global Strategy (EUGS) for the first time explicitly mentions strategic autonomy as an objective for the Union, and that raises a lot of questions. Sven Biscop argues that the EU’s priorities should be: (1) In the short term, to further strengthen its strategic autonomy in protecting our domestic security, and to achieve full strategic autonomy in crisis response, across the whole spectrum of operations, in our broad neighbourhood. (2) In the medium term, to achieve a significant degree of autonomy in securing Europe’s “connectivity” with the world, in space, air space and cyberspace and on the seas. (3) In the long term, to achieve a significant degree of autonomy for the European Allies and partners of NATO (who, pace Cyprus, happen to constitute the EU), to deter and defend against threats against our territory, in case the attention of our main non-EU allies is pulled away by contingencies outside the North Atlantic area.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, European Union, and Autonomy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, North Atlantic, and North America
276. All at sea: Europe’s crisis of solidarity on migration
- Author:
- Shoshana Fine
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council On Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- The European Union’s approach to migration has created a crisis of solidarity. While migrant arrivals in Europe have declined, so has cooperation and responsibility sharing within the EU. Member states’ reluctance to take sustained responsibility for search and rescue operations has exacerbated voters’ sense that the EU has lost control of the situation. The bloc seems to favour informal, ad hoc initiatives on migration governance that have little transparency, as seen in its disembarkation arrangements and the Emergency Trust Fund for Africa. The EU threatens to undermine its credibility in driving reform in north Africa when it cherry-picks its commitments to international obligations, and when it legitimises and funds counterproductive migration practices. The bloc requires bold leadership in telling a story about migration as a normal and necessary phenomenon, and in promoting inclusive, sustainable policies among member states and with third countries.
- Topic:
- Migration, Foreign Aid, Border Control, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe
277. Beyond good and evil: Why Europe should bring ISIS foreign fighters home
- Author:
- Anthony Dworkin
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council On Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Hundreds of EU citizens who joined ISIS abroad are in detention in northern Syria, a territory whose future is deeply uncertain. EU governments remain extremely reluctant to bring these detainees back home and have instead sought to have them tried in the region. Sending suspects to Iraqi courts or an international tribunal also appear to be non-starters given the risk of unfair trials and questionable legal footing available. Returning European ISIS supporters to Europe is the best way to ensure they remain under control and can be prosecuted, interrogated, and helped with re-engagement as necessary. Repatriation would also help the plight of European children in detention camps, who are now at risk of illness and further radicalisation.
- Topic:
- European Union, Islamic State, Justice, and Foreign Fighters
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Europe
278. Meeting the challenge of secondary sanctions
- Author:
- Ellie Geranmayeh and Manuel Lafont Rapnouil
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council On Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Secondary sanctions have become a critical challenge for Europe, due to the Trump administration’s maximalist policy on Iran and its aggressive economic statecraft. Europe’s vulnerabilities mostly result from asymmetric interdependence with the US economy, due to the size of US markets and the global role of the US dollar. In future, states will likely weaponise economic interdependence with the EU to target countries that are more important to the European economy than Iran, such as China and Russia. European countries should demonstrate that, despite their economic interdependence with the US, they control EU foreign policy. The EU and its member states should strengthen their sanctions policy, begin to build up their deterrence and resilience against secondary sanctions, and prepare to adopt asymmetric countermeasures against any country that harms European interests through secondary sanctions. They should also attempt to bolster the global role of the euro and lead a robust international dialogue on the role of sanctions.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Sanctions, European Union, Economy, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Iran, North America, and United States of America
279. From plaything to player: How Europe can stand up for itself in the next five years
- Author:
- Carl Bildt and Eric K. Leonard
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council On Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- The EU’s foreign policy is inadequate to the task of keeping Europe safe in today’s world of great power politics and uncertainty. Over the last five years, trust between Brussels and member states dwindled, and policy came to reflect the lowest common denominator of popular opinion. The coming five years herald acute pressure on Europe, particularly as Russia, China, and the US undermine multilateral institutions and treat trade, finance data, and security guarantees as instruments of power rather than global public goods. The new high representative should move quickly to rewire European foreign policymaking to exercise strategic sovereignty. The high representative needs more support on this strategy – from deputies, special representatives, and foreign ministers tasked with specific roles. The new leadership team in Brussels needs to reoperationalise European defence, build Europe’s self-sufficiency through a strong European pillar in NATO, and consider innovations such as a European Security Council. Europe will only build greater unity by tackling controversial issues head on in the European Council and the Foreign Affairs Council. The high representative needs to play a much more active role in these debates.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, European Union, and Multilateralism
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, and United States of America
280. Border games: Has Spain found an answer to the populist challenge on migration?
- Author:
- Shoshana Fine and José I. Torreblanca
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council On Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Spain, and Europe, need a new story about migration – there is some recognition of this in Spain but it remains to be seen how the country will put this into practice. Spaniards are relatively open towards migration, but the policy challenge for their government should be to allay, and not provoke, fears of migrant invasion. The Spanish government has called for reform of the EU asylum system, favouring solidarity and shared responsibility as opposed to simply stopping ‘secondary movements’. Spain’s migration diplomacy aspires to work with origin and transit countries rather than acting in a coercive way towards them. The Spanish experience should inform EU member states’ efforts to seek to answers to the populist challenge: they should enact comprehensive, planned, and proactive policies that see migration as normal and necessary.
- Topic:
- Government, Migration, Border Control, European Union, and Asylum
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Spain