Search

Begin New Search Topic Energy Transition Publication Year within 10 Years

51. Facing the Future: What National Oil Companies Say About the Energy Transition

Author:
Andrea Furnaro and David Manley
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
National oil companies (NOCs) should publicly acknowledge the risk of the energy transition, assess this risk, and act by implementing mitigation plans. Only 9 out of 21 NOCs analyzed acknowledge the risk of the energy transition, 4 have mentioned the use of transition risk assessments, and 5 have explicitly mentioned strategies to mitigate the risk. None of the NOCs have published “just transition plans” detailing how they will help workers and communities. NOCs do not plan to decrease investments in risky oil and gas assets. Petrobras (Brazil), Petronas (Malaysia) and Sonangol (Angola) are divesting from less valuable assets, but not necessarily to mitigate transition risk or downsize operations. Some NOCs, such as NNPC (Nigeria) and GNPC (Ghana), want to expedite drilling before oil and gas demand falls and acquire assets divested by other companies. At least six NOCs intend to increase oil and gas investment to secure energy supplies. Most NOCs intend to diversify, especially into gas, oil refineries, petrochemicals and renewable energy. However, it is unclear how much NOCs are spending on diversification or whether these are effective mitigation strategies. NOCs can learn from each other. Two NOCs—Ecopetrol (Colombia) and Petrobras—are clear leaders in terms of recognition of energy transition risk. However, NOCs disclosing more transition risk information are not necessarily also those reducing higher-risk investments.
Topic:
Oil, Business, Investment, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Africa and Global Focus

52. Riskier Bets, Smaller Pockets: How National Oil Companies Are Spending Public Money Amid the Energy Transition

Author:
David Manley, Andrea Furnaro, and Patrick Heller
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Expecting a slow energy transition away from fossil fuels, national oil companies (NOCs) will likely invest USD 1.8 trillion in upstream oil and gas developments and expansions over the next 10 years. But $425 billion—a quarter of the NOCs’ planned investment—will be unprofitable if oil demand falls to 55 million barrels a day, in line with the International Energy Agency’s Announced Pledges Scenario. This is the highest risk portion of the portfolio and has doubled since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. NOCs will only profit from around $1.2 trillion of investment (71 percent of the total NOC investment) if humanity fails to contain global temperature rise to below 1.5°C, pushing the world toward climate catastrophe. While NOCs are making riskier bets, their debt is rising in some regions. Between 2011 and 2022, the average debt to total asset value of NOCs in sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, and Latin America rose by a third. Governments’ financial pockets are shrinking. Between 2011 and 2021, the average government debt as a proportion of gross domestic product doubled. Yet many NOCs have not publicly acknowledged the growing risks of the energy transition. They and their governments must examine how they can generate sufficient revenue and energy for citizens without making even riskier bets with public money.
Topic:
Oil, Business, Public Spending, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

53. Energy Transition in the Middle East and North Africa: The Road to COP28

Author:
Hanen Keskes and Laury Haytayan
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Oil and gas producers in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) must plan for the long-term impacts that the global energy transition will have on their fiscal systems and adapt public investment plans in the pursuit of long-term economic transformation. MENA countries seeking international climate finance to support energy transition must establish a track record of developing and implementing viable green energy projects. MENA governments must center energy transitions around justice, fairness and equity for all. A just energy transition process must include two types of justice: procedural justice, which relates to the extent to which people are involved in the process; and distributive justice, which represents the extent to which the positive and negative effects of energy transition are fairly distributed. Governments in the Global South must ensure that South-North cooperation for renewable energy production addresses domestic energy needs, before directing excess production to export.
Topic:
Climate Change, Oil, Gas, Conference of the Parties (COP), and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

54. Synchronized: The Impact of the War on Ukraine's Energy Landscape

Author:
Thomas Laffitte and Ihor Moshenets
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
Abstract:
Before Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, Ukraine was able to generate substantial revenues from the transit costs of Russian hydrocarbons destined for the European market. Despite the war, Russian oil (and some gas) continues to flow to Europe via Ukraine, and the latter continues to receive transit fees. In the field of hydrocarbons, although Ukraine is far from having hydrocarbon reserves equivalent to those of Russia, it has several assets to offer Europeans, including particularly large storage capacities. Fortunately, these storage facilities are located in the western part of the country, away from much of the fighting. Thanks to the successful synchronization of the Ukrainian and the EU power grids, the electricity trade continues. It has become a field of increased cooperation between Kyiv and Brussels, offering a potential blueprint for other sectors with a view to future integration. Despite the immense destruction caused by the Russian army, which specifically targeted the country’s energy infrastructure, Ukraine has shown extraordinary resilience. Ukraine can export electricity to its European partners, creating a profitable situation for both parties and good promises for the future. While the debate continues in Europe regarding the role of nuclear energy in the energy transition, it is already clear that in this domain, North American actors have the upper hand in Ukraine. Decisions made in Brussels on the exact contours of the energy transition will have a major influence on energy policy decisions made in Ukraine. The country has significant potential to produce decarbonized and renewable electricity.
Topic:
Armed Conflict, Nuclear Energy, Energy, Russia-Ukraine War, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Europe, Eurasia, and Ukraine

55. Eastern Mediterranean Deepwater Gas to Europe: Not Too Little, But Perhaps Too Late

Author:
Shangyou Nie and Robin Mills
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 precipitated a global energy crisis with Europe as its epicenter. The war compelled Europe to endeavor to end its long-standing dependence on Russian natural gas, a goal that required diversification of supply. This process has proven challenging, however. Compared with oil, which is relatively fungible, gas is difficult to redirect due to high capital costs and long lead times for pipelines and liquefaction plants. Amid this crisis, one region that has emerged as a promising new gas source for Europe is the Eastern Mediterranean, particularly Israel, Egypt, and Cyprus. Since 1999, exploration in deepwater basins in these three countries has resulted in the discovery of approximately 2,400 billion cubic meters (Bcm), or 80 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), of gas resources. Moreover, exploration is ongoing and new discoveries are possible, meaning that even greater volumes of gas could be available in the future. This report, part of the work by the Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University SIPA, on oil and gas and the energy transition, focuses on the aforementioned three countries’ prospects of supplying gas to Europe from a technical, geopolitical, and economic perspective. Drawing on company, government, and press sources, the report finds that such gas can meaningfully contribute to European energy security, though mainly in the medium term and only given the involvement of external players—likely the US and/or the EU—and with buy-in from Eastern Mediterranean countries, which will need to see an upside in terms of their own energy security and energy transition.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Russia-Ukraine War, Energy Transition, Energy Security, and Natural Gas
Political Geography:
Europe, Israel, Egypt, Cyprus, and Eastern Mediterranean

56. Assessing ESG Risks in National Oil Companies: Transcending ESG Ratings with a Better Understanding of Governance

Author:
Luisa Palacios and Catarina Vidotto Caricati
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
National oil companies (NOCs) produce about half of the world’s oil, hold more than half of its refining capacity, and own the bulk of oil and gas reserves. Most of these companies come from emerging markets and depend heavily on international capital to finance their operations. As financial institutions consider more carefully environmental, social, and governance (ESG) risks in their investment decisions, an accurate assessment of the ESG performance of NOCs will be vital. Assessment of ESG risks in NOCs is currently hobbled by both the considerable divergence in ESG ratings for any given company and the complex nature of NOCs’ state ownership structure, which isn’t always readily encapsulated in ESG scores. A clearer picture of these companies’ ESG performance could be useful to investors. This paper, part of the Financing the Energy Transition initiative at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA, aims to provide a better understanding of what impacts the ESG performance of NOCs in emerging markets. The authors survey ESG ratings of the largest national oil and gas companies in emerging markets for which such ratings are available, alongside the scores of some of the largest integrated oil and gas companies from advanced countries. The authors find a significant divergence in ESG scores for each single company, which raises questions about their individual stand-alone value in assessing the relative ESG performance of companies in the integrated oil and gas space. An analysis of average NOC ESG ratings—imperfect as they are—against those of international oil companies (IOCs), however, indicates much lower performance of NOCs on governance specifically (i.e., the G in ESG). Ownership by a state creates unique governance challenges—which, in turn, affect environmental and even social efforts—and deserves further exploration to determine which factors within state-owned companies can improve or impair ESG performance, to facilitate a more reliable understanding of NOCs’ ESG risks.
Topic:
Oil, Governance, Fossil Fuels, Energy Transition, and National Oil Companies
Political Geography:
Global Focus

57. A Potential Path for Alleviating Currency Risk in Emerging Market Green Bonds

Author:
Gautam Jain
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
A large gap exists between the financing needed for the energy transition and what is being invested. Green bonds are flourishing as one of the main sources to close this financing gap, with over $2.5 trillion issued globally thus far. However, emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) haven’t fully capitalized on the growth of this asset class: the share of EMDE (excluding China) green bonds denominated in local currencies within the total green bond universe remains minuscule. While some EMDE issuers can sell a bond denominated in dollars and hedge by swapping the dollar exposure into the local currency of the underlying projects, the cost of doing so is usually prohibitive. This report, part of the Financing the Energy Transition initiative at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA, adds to ongoing discussions of how to encourage a greater flow of green financing from international investors to emerging economies. Toward that end, it explores a blended finance structure wherein an intermediary takes on the local currency risk of an EMDE green bond, effectively converting it to a dollar bond that settles internationally, to potentially stimulate more issuances and expand the pool of international investors with access to these bonds.
Topic:
Climate Finance, Currency, Bonds, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

58. Green Hydrogen's Contributions to the Energy Transition: Perspectives and Prerequisites

Author:
Rafaela Guedes, Gregório Cruz Araújo Maciel, Agnes da Costa, André Bello, Cameron Mathie, Fiona Simon, Jorge Camargo, and Luis Viga
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Abstract:
Green hydrogen can potentially offer a decisive contribution to achieve the carbon neutrality required to implement a low carbon economy, which is one of the goals of the Paris Agreement and of other environmental efforts. The event “Green Hydrogen’s Contributions to the Energy Transition: Perspectives and Prerequisites”, organised by CEBRI in partnership with the Australian Embassy, aimed at exploring the perspectives and conditions for hydrogen to serve as a strategic energy vector, focusing specifically on using that technology to store energy cleanly, to produce derivatives, and as an energy source in the absence of more efficient electrification alternatives. This report will summarise the main inputs gleaned from the debate and the resulting recommendations. In May 2022, CEBRI produced a Whitepaper on hydrogen opportunities for energy transition, which gives a first overview of potential uses of hydrogen and of the progress of implementation of that technology in Brazil. This report will complement and update that initial diagnosis.
Topic:
Climate Change, Science and Technology, Carbon Emissions, Hydrogen, Green Transition, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
South Asia and Brazil

59. How renewable energy transitions impact power structures in local communities

Author:
Maria-Louise Clausen
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
International donors often see renewable energy transitions in fragile and conflict-affected states as a building block for peace and development. But donor-supported transitions to small-scale renewable energy generation can both mitigate and exacerbate local conflict dynamics and undermine the central state. In fragile and conflict-affected states, it is often difficult for the central authorities to protect large-scale energy infrastructure from attacks and sabotage, and thus guarantee long-term stability. Moreover, local communities often use fuel-driven generators to supplement the state-driven national grid, but national diesel supply lines are also vulnerable to disruptions. Consequently, international donors increasingly support small-scale renewable energy generation as a climate friendly alternative to centralised and state-led energy generation. Solar photovoltaic (PV) in particular has become a widely promoted, affordable and accessible technology for local energy generation.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Development, Water, Non State Actors, Governance, Inequality, Renewable Energy, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

60. Fair Energy Transition for All: Final Recommendations National Report of the Netherlands

Author:
Louise Van Schaik, René Cuperus, and Paul Hofhuis
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Over the past year, the Clingendael Institute and Bureau Berenschot have participated in the Fair Energy Transition for All (FETA) project, which was also carried out in eight other European countries. The idea was to enter into a dialogue with both those who are potentially hard hit by the energy transition as well as experts, with the aim of gaining a better understanding of the emotions, fears, views and needs of vulnerable people with regard to energy transition and to develop policy recommendations for a fairer transition. Bureau Berenschot organised 14 focus groups with a total of 128 participants who had concerns about the current high energy prices and the possible effects of the energy transition/climate challenge on their daily lives. Based on the outcomes, Clingendael Institute organised two sessions with experts from government, academia and civil society to develop policy recommendations. Those policy recommendations were then discussed with the target group and validated in a Fair Energy Forum, organised by Berenschot, with input from Clingendael. The high energy prices and the consequences of the war in Ukraine gave the FETA project enormous urgency. In just a few months, energy transition has become an alarming issue with concerns about energy poverty and the ditsribution of energy topping political agenda's. What follows is a brief overview of policies already in place, followed by the key findings for the Netherlands and corresponding recommendations.
Topic:
Climate Change, European Union, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Europe