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141. China should address downward pressure in 2018

Author:
Qiyuan Xu
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Abstract:
In 2017, the Chinese economy rebounded more significantly than expected. There is now general anticipation that growth in 2018 will fall slightly compared with that of 2017, but that it will remain stable at 6.5 percent or above. However, there are some factors that could lead to downward pressure on investment and consumption in 2018. First, investment growth has shown negative growth recently. Judging from the notional fixed-asset investment, the year-on-year growth in the first 11 months of 2017 was 7.2 percent, 1.1 percentage points lower than in the same period of 2016. Due to the significant increase in producer price index (PPI) growth in 2017, the drop in real investment growth in 2017 is quite worrying. The real investment growth rate in the first three quarters of 2017 dropped to 2.2 percent year-on-year, while in the same period of 2016, this figure was 9.5 percent year-on-year. On a quarterly basis, the real investment rate in the third quarter of 2017 fell by 1.1 percent year-on-year, the first time that negative growth has been recorded in more than a decade.
Topic:
Economy, Economic growth, and Investment
Political Geography:
China and Asia

142. The Power of More Foreign-Born Workers: How Raising Immigration Levels Can Boost US Economic Growth

Author:
Research and Policy Committee of the Committee for Economic Development
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The future growth prospects of the US economy are severely constrained by a lack of working-age population growth. Fewer workers means less output without increases in productivity so large as to be highly unlikely. Increased immigration alone directly addresses the problem of fewer workers contributing to the US economy. Sound policy can help boost both the quality and quantity of available workers while ensuring that increased immigration serves to broaden rather than diminish opportunities for native-born workers.
Topic:
Immigration, Economic growth, Labor Policies, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

143. Water Security and Growth: The case of the Middle East and North Africa Countries

Author:
Jamal Saghir
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute for the Study of International Development, McGill University
Abstract:
Today, the challenge of water security is global, and growing. Achieving and sustaining water security, in both developed and developing countries, is likely to increase in complexity and priority—not only as climate change intensifies, but also as the demands of economic growth increase. While most developed countries invested heavily in water security, often starting early on their path to growth, most of the world’s developing countries remain relatively water insecure. The dominant threats to water security vary geographically and over time. Relative risks to populations vary globally: South Asia has the largest global concentration of population at risk of all water-related hazards; the Middle East and North Africa (MNA)2 stands out as having the highest percentage of the population facing scarcity and the only region where risks are still growing; and Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest percentage of population without access to water and sanitation. What is clear is that water security is not a stagnant goal, it is a dynamic process affected by changing climate, political set up, growing economies, and resource degradation. Moreover, as social, cultural, political, economic priorities and values evolve, water security will evolve with them. This note argues that in the MNA countries, instead of water security becoming an impediment to growth and factor in conflicts, water for growth and water security can be a factor of prosperity and peace.
Topic:
Security, Development, Water, and Economic growth
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

144. Getting Africa’s Urbanization Right

Author:
Jamal Saghir
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute for the Study of International Development, McGill University
Abstract:
Sub-Saharan African countries are experiencing rapid urban growth challenging policy makers to provide infrastructure and services under tight fiscal constraints. Urbanization has the potential to boost economic growth, attract capital, create jobs, and fight poverty; but cities in Africa are failing to reap these benefits. More than half of SSA population lives in urban areas, but 55% of these citizens are established in informal settlements underserved by public services and threatened by natural disasters. GDP in Africa is mainly concentrated around urban areas proving that national economic growth depends on the productivity of the cities. Urban development should be a national priority sustained by policy reforms, strategic investments in infrastructure, decentralization, and stronger inter-governmental systems and institutions.
Topic:
Development, Urbanization, GDP, and Economic growth
Political Geography:
Africa

145. The Missing Middle: A Political Economy of Economic Restructuring in Vietnam

Author:
Matthew Busch
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Despite impressive economic performance, Vietnam’s strong trade and investment gains have yet to fully overcome the vestiges of its economic past. Economic restructuring and greater integration with the international economic system has brought Vietnam impressive gains in wealth, trade, and investment. Such efforts have not, however, resolved Vietnam’s ‘missing middle’ or the lack of a productive domestic private sector and the continued dominance of the state-owned sector. While these challenges represent a risk to Vietnam’s future growth potential, initiatives such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership provide an opportunity for further trade and investment expansion.
Topic:
Economic growth, Trans-Pacific Partnership, Investment, Trade, and Private Sector
Political Geography:
Asia, Vietnam, and Southeast Asia

146. Infrastructure Challenges for Papua New Guinea

Author:
Craig Lawrence
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Climate, topography, population, culture, economics, and finance all conspire to raise significant barriers to providing economic and social infrastructure critical to Papua New Guinea's future development. Compared to developed economies, the physical stock of infrastructure assets in Papua New Guinea is insufficient to deliver the economic and social services needed to drive faster economic growth and improve human development. It faces significant choices as a result that may also be influenced by the public infrastructure requirements of foreign direct investment in export oriented extractive resource sectors. A lack of effective national infrastructure planning and funding constrain PNG's economy and its ability to improve the lives of its citizens through provision of these infrastructure services. This paper briefly reviews several key infrastructure sectors - telecommunications, transport, energy, and urban water - to provide snapshots of their status, identify challenges, and where possible make relevant international comparisons. It also looks at ways to improve the delivery of relevant economic infrastructure: (i) effective planning and prioritisation; (ii) funding strategies for infrastructure investment; (iii) funding of ongoing infrastructure operations; and (iv) consideration of infrastructure life cycle issues. In addition, in the future effective economic regulation of PNG commercialised infrastructure services will help ensure that consumers benefit from these services. The Independent Consumer and Competition Commission will therefore have an increasingly important role to play.
Topic:
Development, Energy Policy, Infrastructure, and Economic growth
Political Geography:
AustralAsia and Papua New Guinea

147. Economic Analysis of Papua New Guinea

Author:
David Osborne, Robert Harden, and Christopher Hoy
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
This paper analyses the PNG economy by considering (1) macroeconomic stability; and (2) fiscal policy and debt.
Topic:
Debt, Political stability, Economic growth, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
AustralAsia and Papua New Guinea

148. Addressing Lebanon's Refugee Crisis and Development Challenges

Author:
Randa Slim and Philippe Lazzarini
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Lebanon is facing overwhelming socioeconomic, security, and demographic challenges as the civil war in neighboring Syria enters its seventh year. Since the start of the crisis, Lebanon has received $4.9 billion in assistance, but demands on the country's resources, services, and civil order remain heavy. Without a political solution to the Syrian conflict, humanitarian and development aid cannot deliver and sustain sufficient results for the refugees or for the Lebanese people. How will Lebanon continue to deal with these conditions? The Middle East Institute (MEI) and the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, Foreign Policy Institute (SAIS-FPI) were pleased to host Philippe Lazzarini, the United Nations deputy special coordinator in Lebanon. He discussed opportunities and challenges for shifting the international response to Lebanon's Syrian refugee crisis beyond short-term humanitarian and stabilization efforts to a more sustainable economic growth strategy.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, United Nations, Foreign Aid, Refugees, Economic growth, Syrian War, and Development Aid
Political Geography:
Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

149. Brain Circulation: Canada & Israel

Author:
Creed Atkinson and Jinhui Jiao
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Munk School of Global Affairs at the University of Toronto
Abstract:
High-skilled Prime working age (PWA) people are fundamental in securing economic growth. Therefore, a country’s ability to attract PWA immigrants and encourage its domestic PWA population to remain put, is crucial to sustaining economic competitiveness. Looking at Canada and Israel, authors Creed Atkinson (MGA ’17) and Jinhui Jiao (MGA ’17) found that Canada is currently benefitting from PWA brain gain while Israel is experiencing PWA brain drain. Given Canada’s already high ability to attract high quality PWA immigrants, its policy should focus on circulating PWA migrants back home. With the acute shortage of high-skilled workers and unique geo-political and legal conditions in Israel, limiting its ability to attract PWA migrants, its policy should also focus on brain circulation. Accordingly, both Canada and Israel would do best if they focus their future activities on brain circulation instead of attracting PWA immigrants.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Labor Issues, and Economic growth
Political Geography:
Middle East, Canada, Israel, and North America

150. Youth Unemployment in Africa: Capacity Building and Innovative Strategies

Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF)
Abstract:
The aim of this Occasional Paper produced by the African Capacity Building Foundation is to provoke evidence-based discussion, and encourage further investigation on the critical capacity challenges to be addressed to tackle youth unemployment in Africa. The paper assesses the causes and impacts of youth unemployment in Botswana, Namibia, South Africa, and Swaziland. It profiles and characterizes the status and nature of youth unemployment as well as the strategies and programs—and identifies the challenges, implications, and gaps—to find ways to address it. Stakeholder and expert consultations with development partners, government, the private sector, and nongovernmental organizations in addressing youth unemployment were carried out, as such research is crucial for identifying capacity gaps and key policy aspects to address it. The consultations were complemented with a review of success stories and best practices to inform strategies and capacity development interventions aimed to tackle youth unemployment and refine policy approaches toward inclusive, employment-creating, and sustainable economic growth.
Topic:
Development, Economic growth, Youth, Capacity, Unemployment, Economic Development, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, Swaziland, Namibia, and Botswana