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2. Calming the Long War in the Philippine Countryside
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Manila’s counter-insurgency campaign has whittled the Philippine communist rebellion down to a fraction of its former strength. But it has fallen short of ending the conflict. A negotiated peace preceded by confidence-building measures is the best way forward.
- Topic:
- Communism, Insurgency, Counterinsurgency, Negotiation, Peacebuilding, and Confidence Building Measures
- Political Geography:
- Philippines and Asia-Pacific
3. ‘Ten pound touts’: post-conflict trust and the legacy of counterinsurgency in Northern Ireland
- Author:
- Kristin M. Bakke and Kit Rickard
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper explores the legacies of wartime rebel governance and counterinsurgency tactics. Insurgents rely on civilian support for resources, information, and cover. To defeat insurgents, the state attempts to extract information from communities where support for insurgents is highest. We argue that strong norms against civilian collaboration emerge in these areas, which may have long legacies for local community trust. To explore these legacies, we conduct a case study of post-conflict Northern Ireland. While both Republican and Loyalist paramilitary groups established wartime institutions, the counterinsurgency targeted Republican groups in urban areas with the use of informants. Drawing on secondary literature and a survey, we show that strong norms against informers—‘touts’—persist long after the end of the conflict in Republican strongholds. These areas show lower levels of local community trust than their Loyalist counterparts. The Northern Irish case demonstrates the detrimental effects of dynamics likely to shape other post-conflict states.
- Topic:
- Counterinsurgency, Governance, Civilians, Survey, and Trust
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Northern Ireland
4. The Jeju 4.3 Attacks Were Not a Democracy Movement
- Author:
- Tara O
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- On April 3, 1948, on the Korean island of Jeju, communist guerrillas went on a rampage, killing police officers, election workers, and others; setting houses on fire; and terrorizing villagers, all to discourage them from voting in the upcoming May 10 elections that would establish the Republic of Korea (ROK). The insurgency—referred to as Jeju 4.3—triggered a government counterinsurgency, forcing the communists into the mountains where they would continue their guerrilla operations for nine more years. In March 2023, the Democratic Party of Korea (Deobureo Minju Party) introduced a bill mandating that citizens refer to the insurgency only as a “democracy struggle,” with punishments of up to five years in prison. But historical documents, eyewitness testimony, and statements from the perpetrators show that the incident was a campaign of irregular and unconventional warfare, a prelude to the communist military invasion of South Korea in June 1950, and part of the larger Korean War.
- Topic:
- History, Counterinsurgency, Democracy, and Korean War
- Political Geography:
- Asia and South Korea
5. Including Africa Threat Analysis in Force Design 2030
- Author:
- Glen Segell
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Advanced Military Studies
- Institution:
- Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
- Abstract:
- This article examines the threat analysis across Africa that should be included in Force Design 2030 for the United States Marine Corps to be deployed landward to Africa or seaward of the continent. It is a strategic guidance document examined from a threat analysis of China, Russia, Korea, Iran, and violent extremist organizations. Africa is not mentioned, and this is a notable omission given that high level interventions in the past to Africa have not been overtly successful. Given geostrategic significances and hot spots it is inevitable that the Marines will be deployed there again. This article examines lessons learned from failures in Somalia, Libya, and Lebanon and successes in Syria and Iraq as well as the experiences of others—France in Mali and Burkina Faso and United States Africa Command. Great power competition, violent extremist organizations, and the gray zone phenomena across Africa are examined as are security, intelligence, counterintelligence, and hybrid warfare.
- Topic:
- Security, Intelligence, Counterinsurgency, Violent Extremism, Gray Zone, Strategic Competition, and US Marine Corps
- Political Geography:
- Africa and United States of America
6. Mutiny as dialogue: Interrogating the rank-and-file complaints and revolt in the Nigerian counter-insurgency campaign
- Author:
- Patrick Afamefune Ikem
- Publication Date:
- 11-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Conflict Trends
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- For over a decade, the Nigerian State has been confronting the ravaging insurgency perpetrated by Boko Haram and its splinter group, the Islamic State of West African Province (ISWAP), which has been responsible for about 350 000 deaths, and the displacement of over 2.3 million people.1 It is estimated that over 15 million people have been affected by the insurgency and counterinsurgency (COIN) operations in North-East Nigeria.2 The activities of these groups, coupled with the recent armed banditry, have triggered one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world.3 Unfortunately, the police mandated to handle internal security have, since the commencement of the insurgency, been overstretched and overwhelmed due to poor training and inadequate funding. Because of the combined effects of the Boko Haram insurgency, banditry, kidnappings, separatist agitations, ethno-religious conflicts, and the farmer-herder crisis, the Nigerian military has been drafted to play a frontline role in quelling the multifarious security crises in the country. This situation, among others, has largely marked the overwhelming engagement of the Nigerian army in internal security operations. However, some analysts and scholars have posited the danger of an expansive role of the military in the ongoing fight against counterinsurgency, claiming that it may threaten civil-military relations.4 Recently, Nigeria’s Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), General Lucky Irabor, stated that 80% of the country’s armed forces are presently engaged in internal security operations in all 36 states of the federation. This suggests, as several analysts have highlighted, that the Nigerian military has essentially taken over internal security, which is largely within the purview of police service.5
- Topic:
- Counterinsurgency, Boko Haram, Dialogue, and Military
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Nigeria
7. The Egyptian Army’s Counterinsurgency: History, Past Operations, and the Sinai Campaign
- Author:
- Hossam el-Hamalawy
- Publication Date:
- 10-2023
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- Why did the Egyptian military, which had long avoided serious involvement in the police-led 1990s domestic War on Terror and the later fight against armed militants in Sinai, embark on a major counterinsurgency in Sinai following the 2013 coup? Why did it take the Egyptian military almost a decade to pacify the peninsula at a very high cost for Sinai residents and the military itself, despite the small size of the insurgent force and the relatively confined terrain where it operated? This paper will attempt to answer those questions, but first, it examines some catastrophic precedents where the army deployed its personnel in counterinsurgency operations, before delving into the recent Sinai war and what it tells us about the military’s mindset.
- Topic:
- Security, Counterinsurgency, History, and Military
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, North Africa, Egypt, and Sinai Peninsula
8. A Force for the Right Purpose? Rethinking Western COIN Interventions in Africa’s Sahel
- Author:
- Gershon Adela
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
- Institution:
- Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- France, the EU, UN, US and its Western allies have implemented several COIN interventions in the Sahel. While these interventions have accomplished some immediate outcomes, their long-term success remains daunting. This article examines six bad practices responsible for the failure of COIN operations. Comparing these practices to Western COIN interventions in the Sahel, the evidence provided here demonstrates that these Sahelian COIN missions are doomed to fail. In addition to being foreign occupiers in the Sahel, the activities of Western forces and their local allies are considered worse than insurgent groups due to their contribution to the creation of new grievances in the region. Furthermore, the alliance between foreign forces and local militia groups has led to an increase in inter-ethnic and inter-community violence mainly due to differences in their agenda and strategy for combating the insurgency. Finally, some Western actors operating in the Sahel, especially the French, remain unprepared to adapt their strategy for combatting the insurgency.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Counterinsurgency, and Military Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sahel
9. Jihad Takes Root in Northern Benin
- Author:
- Leif Brottem
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- The 14 September 2022 killing of two customs agents days after the kidnapping of three individuals with government ties signals an alarming uptick in jihadist violence in northern Benin (Les 4 Vérités, 14 September 2022). ACLED records 28 organized political violence events in northern Benin attributed to Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) or the Islamic State between 1 November 2021 and 14 September 2022 (see map below). It is increasingly clear that jihadist cells have become deeply established in the country’s northern regions. The Beninese government is currently ramping up its threat response, which looks likely to include a security agreement with Rwanda (Radio France Internationale, 10 September 2022). It is more urgent than ever that the country’s counterinsurgency avoids the tragic mistakes of governments in the Sahel by blunting the deepening roots of the insurgency in rural areas.
- Topic:
- Counterinsurgency, Non State Actors, Violent Extremism, and Jihad
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Benin
10. A WIDENING RIFT BETWEEN EUROPE AND THE SAHEL
- Author:
- Silvia D'Amato
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- Two weeks ago, the Malian military junta, in power after a coup in May 2021, proposed to hold elections in December 2025 instead of this month as promised. The move was widely condemned. West Africa’s main regional bloc, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), immediately imposed new sanctions while the French Minister of Defense Florence Parly floated the possibility of reviewing the French and European military engagement in the country. The French Minister of Foreign Affairs Jean-Yves Le Drian openly called the junta “illegitimate”. In response, on January 31 Malian authorities gave 72 hours to the French Ambassador in Bamako to leave the country, an unprecedented diplomatic decision. The European Union (EU) also took a firm stance by imposing targeted sanctions against 5 members of the junta, including Prime Minister Choguel Maïga. The current querelle is arguably only the latest in an ongoing dynamic of political fragmentation in the cooperation between European and regional actors in the Sahel.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Counterinsurgency, Armed Forces, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Europe, North Africa, and Sahel