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42. THE CONTRIBUTION OF THE UNITED NATIONS POLICE TO THE PROTECTION OF CIVILIANS IN SOUTH SUDAN
- Author:
- Josias Marcos de Resende Silva
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
- Institution:
- Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
- Abstract:
- On 8 July 2011, the Security Council established the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) to consolidate peace and security, and to help implement conditions for development. On 15 December 2013, violence broke out in the capital Juba and spread to several other locations, resulting in a countrywide armed conflict. The crisis had disastrous consequences for human rights in many parts of the country, especially in areas of greatest military confrontation. During the hostilities, UNMISS estimates that thousands of people were killed. Both parties to the conflict failed to comply with international humanitarian and human rights law directing attacks on civilians based on their ethnicity. As a result, a large number of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) sought refuge in UNMISS bases.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, United Nations, Conflict, and Police
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Sudan
43. Peace in Venezuela: Is There Life after the Barbados Talks?
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The standoff between Venezuela’s government and opposition has reached a worrying juncture, with negotiations falling apart, side deals emerging and regional states rolling out new sanctions on Caracas. Resuming the talks is the safest path to an exit from the country’s ever deepening crisis. What’s new? At least for now, Norwegian-facilitated negotiations to end Venezuela’s presidential showdown have collapsed. Meanwhile, President Nicolás Maduro’s government has forged an agreement with minority opposition parties. Together with regional powers’ decision to define Venezuela as a threat to hemispheric security, these developments could complicate a resolution of the crisis. Why does it matter? Failure to restore political stability and socio-economic well-being in Venezuela fuels South America’s worst-ever refugee crisis, risks a low-intensity internal conflict, propagates tensions across the region and threatens to trigger military clashes with neighbouring Colombia. What should be done? Allies of the two sides should press them to overcome their reluctance and return to the negotiating table, possibly under a new format, where they should show the necessary flexibility to reach a workable agreement.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, Sanctions, and Negotiation
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
44. Keeping Ethiopia’s Transition on the Rails
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Ethiopia’s political opening under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has won well-deserved accolades but also uncorked dangerous centrifugal forces, among them ethnic strife. With international partners’ diplomatic and financial support, the government should proceed more cautiously – and consultatively – with reforms that could exacerbate tensions. What’s new? Clashes in October 2019 in Oromia, Ethiopia’s most populous region, left scores of people dead. They mark the latest explosion of ethnic strife that has killed hundreds and displaced millions across the country over the past year and half. Why did it happen? Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has taken important steps to move the country toward more open politics. But his efforts to dismantle the old order have weakened the Ethiopian state and given new energy to ethno-nationalism. Hostility among the leaders of Ethiopia’s most powerful regions has soared. Why does it matter? Such tensions could derail Ethiopia’s transition. Meanwhile, reforms Abiy is making to the country’s powerful but factious ruling coalition anger opponents, who believe that they aim to undo Ethiopia’s ethnic federalist system, and could push the political temperature still higher. Elections in May 2020 could be divisive and violent. What should be done? Abiy should step up efforts to mend divisions within and among Ethiopia’s regions and push all parties to avoid stoking tensions around the elections. International partners should press Ethiopian leaders to curb incendiary rhetoric and offer increased aid to protect the country from economic shocks that could aggravate political problems.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, and Transition
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Ethiopia
45. Intra-Gulf Competition in Africa’s Horn: Lessening the Impact
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Gulf states are competing for influence in the Horn of Africa to control the Red Sea, transposing internal rivalries onto a fragile region. Horn governments should increase their bargaining power with their powerful neighbours, who should recognise the risks their policies pose to regional security. What’s new? Middle Eastern states are accelerating their competition for allies, influence and physical presence in the Red Sea corridor, including in the Horn of Africa. Rival Gulf powers in particular are jockeying to set the terms of a new regional power balance and benefit from future economic growth. Why did it happen? Regional instability, a relative power vacuum and competition among rising Middle East states have prompted Gulf countries to seek to project their power outward into the neighbourhood. They are looking at the Horn of Africa to consolidate alliances and influence. Why does it matter? Many new Gulf-Horn relationships are highly asymmetrical, driven more by Gulf than African interests. Gulf states are injecting resources and exporting rivalries in ways that could further destabilise fragile local politics. Yet they also carry the potential to resolve conflict and fuel economic growth. What should be done? Horn and Western policymakers should seek to limit intra-Gulf sparring in Africa, notably by expanding the role of regional multilateral organisations to boost Horn states’ bargaining power. Gulf rivals must become convinced – by their allies or their own experience – that their actions are undermining long-term security across the Red Sea basin.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, Regional Cooperation, Political stability, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Gulf Nations, and Horn of Africa
46. Containing the Border Fallout of Colombia’s New Guerrilla Schism
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Tensions are rising on the Colombia-Venezuela border after a new guerrilla faction opted out of Colombia’s 2016 peace deal. With diplomatic ties between the two countries severed, the risk of escalation is high. Bogotá and Caracas should open channels of communication to avoid inter-state clashes. What’s new? Former commanders of the demobilised Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) announced the creation of a new dissident faction from a location seemingly close to the Colombia-Venezuela border, triggering accusations from Bogotá that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s government is sheltering and supporting the group. Why does it matter? Already at loggerheads over Maduro’s legitimacy, the Colombian and Venezuelan governments could stumble into conflict along a 2,200km border crossed daily by thousands of migrants and exploited by non-state armed and criminal groups. A major Venezuelan troop deployment and Colombia’s invocation of a mutual defence pact have heightened the risk. What should be done? The emergence of the new FARC dissident faction underscores that the Colombian government should redouble efforts to reintegrate former fighters into civilian life. Colombia and Venezuela should work to repair their diplomatic rupture and, in the meantime, establish communication channels to mitigate the risk of misunderstandings over border violence.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, Non State Actors, Negotiation, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Colombia, South America, and Venezuela
47. Safeguarding Sudan’s Revolution
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Sudan’s post-Bashir transition holds the promise of civilian rule but also perils, among them renewed insurgency, economic stagnation and backsliding into autocracy. Outside powers should press the military to adhere to its power-sharing pact with the opposition. Authorities in Khartoum should pursue peace with rebels. What’s new? Since Omar al-Bashir’s 11 April ouster, Sudan’s military leadership and opposition alliance have appointed a new prime minister, formed a cabinet and assembled a supervisory council to oversee a power-sharing deal concluded on 17 August. If honoured, the deal could pave the way for elections and civilian rule. Why does it matter? Sudan faces a crushing economic crisis, insurgencies and political polarisation, with a security establishment bent on keeping power and an opposition movement determined to instal a fully civilian administration. The 17 August agreement represents the best pathway both to achieving reform and to averting spiralling violence. What should be done? The AU, U.S. and EU, together with Gulf states, should push the generals to respect the power-sharing deal. They should encourage Khartoum to make peace with insurgents in peripheral areas. The U.S. should rescind Sudan’s state sponsor of terrorism designation while maintaining pressure on the military in other ways.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Economy, Negotiation, Revolution, Transition, and Omar al-Bashir
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sudan
48. Iraq: Evading the Gathering Storm
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 08-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Should U.S.-Iranian tensions escalate to a shooting war, Iraq would likely be the first battleground. Washington and Tehran should stop trying to drag Baghdad into their fight. The Iraqi government should redouble its efforts to remain neutral and safeguard the country’s post-ISIS recovery. What’s new? In June, several rockets landed near U.S. installations in Iraq, and in July-August, explosions shook weapons storage facilities and a convoy of Iraqi paramilitary groups tied to Iran. These incidents helped push U.S.-Iranian tensions to the edge of confrontation, underscoring the danger of the situation in Iraq and the Gulf. Why does it matter? While the U.S. and Iran have so far avoided clashing directly, they are pushing the Iraqi government to take sides. Iraqi leaders are working hard to maintain the country’s neutrality. But growing external pressures and internal polarisation threaten the government’s survival. What should be done? The U.S. and Iran should refrain from drawing Iraq into their rivalry, as doing so would undermine the tenuous stability Iraq has achieved in the immediate post-ISIS era. With the aid of international actors, Iraq should persevere in its diplomatic and domestic political efforts to remain neutral.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Geopolitics, and Islamic State
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
49. President Salomé Zourabichvili of Georgia
- Author:
- Salomé Zourabichvili
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Columbia University World Leaders Forum
- Abstract:
- This World Leaders Forum program features an address, Georgia - land of attraction and opportunities: despite conflicts a regional player with Euro-Atlantic drive, by President Salome Zourabichvili of Georgia followed by a question and answer session with the audience.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Development, European Union, Displacement, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- New York, Europe, and Georgia
50. Fundamental Design Principles of Confidence-Building Defense
- Author:
- Carl Conetta and Lutz Unterseher
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- A selection of slides prepared for seminars held in Holland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Belarus in 1994. The seminars were organized and co-sponsored by the Study Group on Alternative Security Policy (SAS) and the Project on Defense Alternatives (PDA). Twenty-five years later the principles of Confidence-Building Defense remain relevant to the efforts of North and South Korea to construct a “peace regime” after many decades of enmity and military standoff.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Defense Policy, National Security, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- South Korea, North Korea, Hungary, Czech Republic, Holland, and Belarus