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81. Key Issues and Policy Recommendations, Conference 6

Author:
Philipp H. Fluri, Oleksiy Melnyk, and Nazli Yildirim
Publication Date:
02-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
This publication offers the Key Issues and Policy Recommendations based on the results of the Sixth International Conference “Security Sector Governance: Defence Production, Sales and Acquisitions”. Conference Six provided a platform to discuss state policy and the market economy; governance and oversight of the defence sector; and defence industrial cooperation with foreign countries.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Industrial Policy, Budget, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:
Ukraine and Global Focus

82. Permanent Budget Surpluses as a Fiscal Regime

Author:
Lukas Haffert
Publication Date:
02-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
This paper challenges the focus on budget deficits that permeates the literature on fiscal policy. It analyzes countries running budget surpluses and asks why some of them preserved these surpluses while others did not. Whereas several OECD members recorded surpluses for just a few years, balanced budgets became the norm in Australia, Canada, Denmark, Finland, New Zealand, and Sweden in the late 1990s. The paper compares the fiscal policy choices of both types of countries from a historical-institutionalist perspective. It argues that a path-dependent shift in the balance of power among fiscal policy interests explains why surpluses persisted in one group of countries but not in the other. This reconfiguration of interests was triggered by a deep fiscal crisis and an ensuing expenditure-led consolidation. It can be interpreted as creating a new “surplus regime” in which fiscal policy became structured around the goals of balancing the budget and cutting taxes.
Topic:
Economics, Financial Crisis, Budget, and Europe
Political Geography:
Finland, Denmark, Sweden, and New Zealand

83. VAT non-compliance in Poland under scrutiny

Author:
Grzegorz Poniatowski, Jarek Neneman, and Tomasz Michalik
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Since 2009, despite constant growth in the tax base and only slight variations in effective rates, the trend in VAT revenue in Poland has been reversed, and inflows have become less stable. The ongoing decline in VAT collection and the increase in the uncertainty related to the main component of budget revenues is a very important problem, which in the light of growing budget spending may threaten the stability of public finances. In the new mBank - CASE Seminar Proceedings three experts: Grzegorz Poniatowski, dr. Jarosław Neneman and Tomasz Michalik examine the structure and the causes of the VAT gap as well as the legal context and possible methods of improving VAT compliance at national and European level.
Topic:
Budget, Economic growth, Tax Systems, Fiscal Policy, and VAT
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, and European Union

84. The CESD Assessment on the 2017 State Budget Project

Author:
CESD Research Team
Publication Date:
11-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
According to the legislation on the Budget system, the legislative project on the state budget of the Republic of Azerbaijan for 2017 and the state and consolidated budget projects of 2017 were publicized on 29th of September, 2016. It has been three years that the legislative projects on the consolidated and state budgets of the Republic of Azerbaijan are being prepared amidst the absence of positive economic trends for the country. Specifically, during the preparation of 2017 state budget, external and internal economic impacts were considered at greater extent. As in previous years, the Center for Economic and Social Development has prepared a comparative analysis of the budget project publicized by the government. It is to be mentioned that, during the preparation of the analysis, the conversion of indicators into the foreign (US dollars) currency is carried out according to annual average currency indicators published by the Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan, whereas the conversion of 2016 indicators into US dollars is conducted in accordance with the average exchange rate of first 8 months (1 US Dollars = 1, 56 manat) and 2017 indicators in accordance with the official exchange rate dated 29th September 2016 (1 US dollars = 1.6252 manat). The comparison of the budget project with previous years plays a prominent role in the forecasting of socio-economic trends for next year and the determination of state fiscal policy and the short-term and strategic position of the government in separate directions.
Topic:
Budget and Finance
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan

85. Building a Sustainable Afghanistan

Author:
Trent Ruder
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Drafted in 2012, the Tokyo Mutual Accountability Framework (TMAF) provides guidelines for Afghan reform and ongoing donor support and has proved useful, but it is hobbled by political, social, financial, and bureaucratic factors. The Ghani-Abdullah unity government, inaugurated in the autumn of 2014, is looking to refresh the agreement to fit an evolving political and economic context. Policy trade-offs are inevitable, however. They raise a critical question: Is the document intended to organize policy-level cooperation on all development efforts or is it a targeted and sequenced blueprint for enabling Afghan financial independence? This report examines the context and policy options of the TMAF and what it means for the future of Afghanistan.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, Governance, Reform, and Budget

86. Taxes: Price of Civilization or Tribute to Leviathan?

Author:
Lant Pritchett and Yamini Aiyar
Publication Date:
08-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
There are two dominant narratives about taxation. In one, taxes are the “price we pay for a civilized society” (Oliver Wendell Holmes Jr.). In this view taxes are not a necessary evil (as in the pairing of “death and taxes” as inevitable) but a positive good: more taxes buy more “civilization.” The other view is that taxes are “tribute to Leviathan”—a pure involuntary extraction from those engaged in economic production to those who control coercive power producing no reciprocal benefit. In this view taxes are a bane of the civilized. We consider the question of taxes as price versus tribute for contemporary India.
Topic:
Civil Society, Economics, Governance, and Budget
Political Geography:
India

87. The True Levels of Government and Social Expenditures in Advanced Economies

Author:
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Conventional wisdom holds that the United States lags behind many other advanced countries in its spending on social, health, and welfare programs. In this Policy Brief, Jacob Kirkegaard argues that conventional wisdom is faulty, in that it overlooks the role of tax systems and private spending in delivering social programs in different societies. Taking the full effects of tax systems and spending by private and public sources into account, Kirkegaard finds that the true level of US social expenditures is fully comparable to European spending—and yet yields worse outcomes than in Europe. High aggregate social spending in the United States has a very low impact on overall income inequality and healthcare outcomes, for example. The Policy Brief also concludes that the United States relies excessively on tax subsidization to the detriment of fiscal sustainability, transparency, and redistributive fairness
Topic:
Governance, Health Care Policy, and Budget

88. How Not to Regulate Insurance Markets: The Risks and Dangers of Solvency II

Author:
Avinash D. Persaud
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Solvency II, which the European Parliament adopted in March 2014, codifies and harmonizes insurance regulations in Europe to reduce the risk of an insurer defaulting on its obligations and producing dangerous systemic side effects. The new directive tries to achieve these aims primarily by setting capital requirements for the assets of insurers and pension funds based on the annual volatility of the price of these assets. Persaud argues that these capital requirements will impose an asset allocation on life insurers and pension funds that does not serve the interests of consumers, the financial system, or the economy. The main problem with Solvency II is that the riskiness of the assets of a life insurer or pension fund with liabilities that will not materialize before 10 or sometimes 20 years is not well measured by the amount by which prices may fall during the next year. Solvency II fails to take account of the fact that institutions with different liabilities have different capacities for absorbing different risks and that it is the exploitation of these differences that creates systemic resilience. To correct this problem, Persaud offers an alternative approach that is more attuned to the risk that a pension fund or life insurer would fail to meet its obligations when they come due and less focused on the short-term volatility of asset prices.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Budget

89. From Populist Destabilization to Reform and Possible Debt Relief in Greece

Author:
William R. Cline
Publication Date:
08-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Using his European Debt Simulation Model (EDSM), Cline examines whether and to what extent additional debt relief is needed in Greece under the new circumstances. Greece's debt burden is significantly lower than implied by the ratio of its gross debt to GDP, because of concessional interest rates on debt owed predominantly to the euro area official sector. The IMF's call for debt relief recognizes the lower interest burden but argues that the gross financing requirement is on track to exceed a sustainable range of 15 to 20 percent. But in the Fund's June Debt Sustainability Analysis that threshold would not be exceeded until after 2030. A sustainability diagnosis based on such a distant future date would seem at best illustrative rather than definitive. The euro area creditors might, nonetheless, be well advised to provide two types of interest relief: an earmarked portion of interest otherwise due to finance a public works employment program; and additional interest relief to compensate for budget shortfalls caused by growth below plan levels. The sovereign debt situation should be alleviated by carrying out the bank recapitalization directly from the European Stability Mechanism to the banks, rather than through the sovereign as the intermediary. The large increase in the ratio of gross debt to GDP imposed by bank recapitalization is mostly an optical illusion because there would be a corresponding rise in state assets, but this increase could, nonetheless, further erode perceptions of sustainability.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, International Monetary Fund, Financial Crisis, and Budget
Political Geography:
Greece

90. Accessibility and effectiveness of donor disclosure policies when disclosure clouds transparency

Author:
Jeffrey Gutman and Claire Horton
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Although the progress of the last decade in the disclosure of aid information has been unprecedented, the ultimate impact of that disclosure is dependent on the specific type of information being disclosed and its accessibility by those who can make use of it. What is evident is that there remains a critical gap, especially when it comes to the timely and accessible disclosure of information during project implementation. If the donor community is sincere in wanting to effectively engage stakeholders, not just during project preparation but throughout the project’s implementation, then it is essential that this gap be filled. Until this is addressed, the promise and potential of transparency and its impact on the governance of aid remain unfulfilled. There has been significant progress in transparency and the accessibility of aid information with regard to the upstream aspects of project design, including project identification, project appraisal, and safeguards. There has also been progress in the reporting of what aid projects have achieved and their impacts after completion. What is still less evident, though, is the transparency of information during the course of project implementation. This critical period—when even the best designed projects can go wrong—has been a relative foundling in terms of available timely information on how a project is progressing, what changes have been made to contract terms and amounts, and whether projects are being executed in accordance with their design and safeguard specifications, leaving a major governance gap in monitoring aid.
Topic:
Development, Humanitarian Aid, Reform, and Budget
Political Geography:
Global Focus