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41. The New Southbound Policy Deepening Taiwan’s Regional Integration

Author:
Bonnie Glaser, Scott Kennedy, and Matthew Funaiole
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
In a concerted effort to expand Taiwan’s presence across the Indo-Pacific, President Tsai Ing-wen has introduced the New Southbound Policy (NSP) to strengthen Taipei’s relationships with the 10 countries of ASEAN, six states in South Asia (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Bhutan), Australia, and New Zealand. The policy is designed to leverage Taiwan’s cultural, educational, technological, agricultural, and economic assets to deepen its regional integration. This report tracks the ongoing implementation of the NSP and assesses what has been achieved since Tsai was elected in January 2016. The Guidelines for the New Southbound Policy issued by the Tsai administration detail that the policy is designed to (1) forge a “sense of economy community” by fostering links between Taiwan and the 18 NSP target countries; and (2) establish mechanisms for wide-ranging negotiations and dialogues, and to “form a consensus for cooperation” with NSP target countries. In the short and medium term, the Guidelines identify four goals: (1) use national will, policy incentives, and business opportunities to spur and expand “two-way” exchanges with NSP target countries; (2) encourage industry to adopt “a New Southbound strategy” in their planning; (3) cultivate more people with the skills needed to support the NSP; and (4) expand multilateral and bilateral negotiations and dialogues to enhance economic cooperation and resolve disputes and disagreements.1 The NSP follows from similarly named policies initiated under Presidents Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian, which were aimed at diversifying Taiwan’s outbound investment away from Mainland China and into Southeast Asia. Since these prior efforts had only a limited impact, skeptics often mischaracterize the NSP as the latest iteration of a failed policy. Such naysayers fail to appreciate, however, that Tsai’s approach is both more strategic and more comprehensive than those of her predecessors. While diversifying and reinvigorating Taiwan’s economy remain fundamental to the NSP, the policy also outlines mechanisms for more effectively integrating Taiwan into the region through cultivating interpersonal connections. Moreover, the NSP is being implemented at a time of slowing growth and rising wages in Mainland China, while investment opportunities are booming in Southeast Asia and South Asia. The core economic goals of the NSP include institutional initiatives, such as updating and expanding economic agreements with targeted countries. At the same time, Taiwan is seeking to encourage small and medium enterprises (SMEs) to explore opportunities overseas. Taipei has also identified avenues for improving bilateral ties by engaging with the general publics of NSP target countries, as well as with government officials and business executives. As such, Taiwan has invested heavily in expanding cultural and educational exchanges to help promote a deeper under- standing of South and Southeast Asian cultures, languages, and business practices among the people of Taiwan. These “people-centered” exchanges serve to realize Taipei’s twin goals of strengthening Taiwan’s integration with the region and facilitating its economic diversification. It is too early to determine whether the NSP will ultimately achieve its ambitious goals, and it may take years before the Tsai government’s investment will start paying dividends. Furthermore, the NSP should be carefully examined by both the countries targeted by Tsai and partners further afield—including the United States. Many of these countries have a vested interest in bolstering the mechanisms available for Taiwan to contribute to the peaceful development of Asia. These countries may find that the goals of the NSP overlap with their own objectives in the region, and therefore may be eager to lend additional support to the endeavor. Selected Policy Recommendations for the United States The United States has a profound interest in the success of Taiwan’s New Southbound Policy. Taiwan has been a long-standing partner of the United States. Its democracy and free society are a beacon of liberal values in the region, while its economic development model has been admired and studied for decades by nations in Asia and beyond. To date, the United States does not appear to have given much thought or expended much effort to support the NSP within Asia. We suggest the United States consider actively supporting the NSP. We recommend the following specific actions: The assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs should coordinate with his/ her counterpart in the South and Central Asia division to create an internal working group to consider how the U.S. government can support the NSP. The U.S. government should engage Japan, Australia, and India, the other members of the “quad,” in support of the NSP. The U.S. government should continue to support Taiwan’s inclusion and active participation in international and regional initiatives where statehood is not required. U.S. nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), particularly those with programs in NSP target countries, should consider partnerships with NGOs in Taiwan to integrate their work where appropriate in support of the NSP. The Commerce Department’s U.S. Commercial Service should engage with American industry associations and companies, and explore potential avenues of collaboration be- tween American and Taiwan industry in NSP target countries. The United States should consider bilateral (U.S.-Taiwan) cultural initiatives that may be brought to third countries in Asia. The United States should include Taiwan youth in relevant regional programs and networks.
Topic:
Agriculture, Education, Regional Cooperation, Science and Technology, Culture, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Bangladesh, China, India, Taiwan, Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Bhutan

42. Implications of Climate Change for Security in Sub-Saharan Africa: Increased Conflict and Fragmentation

Author:
Carmel Davis
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University
Abstract:
What are the implications of climate change for security in low-income countries? As global warming approaches and passes 1.5°C, climate change will reduce income, disrupt social relations, and fragment authority. I focus on Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) because its large agricultural sector is sensitive to climate change and will likely see effects earlier than in other regions. The first section discusses climate change, particularly on the large agricultural sector in SSA. The next two sections analyze two channels by which climate change will affect SSA. First, a survey of quantitative analyses demonstrates a correlation between the level and growth of income and the outbreak of civil wars; climate change will likely decease income in the agricultural sector so the frequency of civil war outbreak will likely increase. Second, climate change will reduce the salience of then-current qualitative strategies of survival and increase the salience of new ones, which will likely increase social disruption and reduce government authority. The last sections discuss adaptation and conclude that a major effect of climate change will be fragmented authority and increased disorder in low-income areas.
Topic:
Security, Agriculture, Civil War, Climate Change, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa

43. Twenty Years of Morocco’s Development

Author:
Edward M. Gabriel
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Ambassador's Review
Institution:
Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:
Twenty years ago, I arrived in Morocco as the new U.S. Ambassador. It was the beginning of a close-up view of the changes going on in Morocco for the next two decades. During my first meeting with King Hassan II, shortly after my arrival, he wasted no time in addressing Morocco’s agenda with the United States, challenging me on our nation’s positions, especially in regard to his Kingdom’s existential issue regarding sovereignty over the Sahara. This unexpected candid and warm exchange set the tone for regular meetings throughout my tenure during which concerns and grievances were voiced in private, rather than aired publicly. King Mohammed VI would continue this practice with me after his father’s death. My first few months in the country also coincided with the beginning of the first government of Alternance, led by opposition leader Abderrahmane El Youssoufi—a watershed moment for Morocco that many political analysts mark as the beginning of significant democratic reform and economic liberalization in Morocco after years of a strong-armed approach to governing and limited civil rights. Abderrahmane El Youssoufi, whose political activities had previously resulted in two years in jail and then 15 years of exile, became Prime Minister after his party, the Socialist Union of Popular Forces (USFP), won the most seats in the November 1997 elections. Since then, the international community has confirmed Moroccan elections as occurring in a fair and transparent manner. In 1998, the unemployment rate in the country was 17 percent and growing, with youths making up a disproportionate percentage of the population. Women lacked equal rights with men. The percentage of the population living at or below the poverty line for lower middle-income countries was around 28 percent, and more than half of the entire adult population was illiterate, with rates among rural women much higher. Electricity in the country reached only around 60 percent of the population, and almost a quarter did not have access to potable water. Infant mortality rates were 23 percent higher than the regional average, and maternal mortality ratios were nearly double the regional average. Overall, the micro-economic picture was in dire shape. The economy was too dependent on agriculture, accounting for 20 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) and heavily reliant on rainfall. Infrastructure was lacking throughout the country, and environmental degradation was widely apparent throughout the cities and the countryside, presenting a challenge to the growth of tourism. Of particular note, the northern part of Morocco was completely neglected after a series of militant actions created an irreparable rift between King Hassan and his citizens there. In contrast to the micro-economic indicators, by 1998 King Hassan had established a strong macro-economic climate: a low ratio of debt to GDP, a low budget deficit and an open, competitive economic system. He adopted International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank reforms that, had Morocco been a member of the European Union, would have qualified it for inclusion in the Monetary Union. Upon his death in 1999, King Hassan left the country unified, with a very strong nationalistic belief in country and King, a reasonably performing economy and, most important, with a solid commitment in its support for U.S. objectives regarding counterterrorism and economic openness, and in promoting peace in the Middle East. Twenty years later, where is Morocco today? Where is it headed tomorrow?
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Diplomacy, Education, Democracy, Decentralization, and IMF
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, North Africa, and Morocco

44. Is Poverty a binding constraint on Agricultural Growth in Rural Malawi?

Author:
Mirriam Muhome-Matita and Ephraim Wadonda Chirwa
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:
Agriculture remains the most important sector in sub-Saharan Africa and is a dominant form of livelihood for a majority of the population that resides in the rural areas. In Malawi, agriculture accounts for 35 percent of GDP and generates more than 80 percent of foreign exchange. In addition, agriculture is the most important occupation for 71 percent of the rural population in which crop production accounts for 74 percent of all rural incomes. However, agriculture has failed to get Africa out of poverty, and most countries are experiencing low agricultural growth, rapid population growth, weak foreign exchange earnings and high transaction costs (World Bank, 2008).
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, Political Economy, Poverty, World Bank, Economic growth, and Rural
Political Geography:
Africa and Malawi

45. Revisiting the determinants of non-farm income in the Peruvian Andes in a context of intraseasonal climate variability and spatially widespread family networks

Author:
Carmen Ponce
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Group for the Analysis of Development (GRADE)
Abstract:
Non-farm income sources are increasingly important in the developing world, representing up to 50 percent of average rural household income. Although there is a vast literature on the determinants of rural households’ strategies for income diversification, two factors associated with long-term transformations and common to many developing countries, have not yet been integrated into the analysis: (i) the role of intraseasonal climate variability (affected by climate change), and (ii) the role of family networks located in distant areas (increasingly important given population displacement due to the internal conflict and increasing connectivity via roads and communications). Whereas an increase in climate variability entails an increase in risk and vulnerability for farm activities, family networks located in distant regions(that do not share the local climate or market shocks) may become a key asset for managing risk and fostering income opportunities (as long as they convey information and opportunities that are not available through local networks). Given the market imperfections that are common in developing rural areas—especially those related to climate risk management—explicit consideration of both factors is key to understanding rural households’ diversification strategies. The study aims to contribute to this pending agenda, investigating the role of these two factors on a household’s income diversification into non-farm activities in the Peruvian Andes, a mountain region with large intraseasonal climate variability and limited but increasing spatial connectivity, where the rural population was severely affected by the internal conflict that took place in the country during the eighties and nineties.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Economics, Rural, Industry, Ecology, and Farming
Political Geography:
Latin America and Peru

46. Adaptation to climate change in the tropical mountains? Effects of intraseasonal climate variability on crop diversification strategies in the Peruvian Andes

Author:
Carmen Ponce
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Group for the Analysis of Development (GRADE)
Abstract:
Crop diversification, selection of tolerant crops, and intercropping are some of the strategies that Andean farmers, as well as farmers in other mountain regions, have historically used to cope with climate-related risks and take advantage of heterogeneous agricultural land (with plots located at different altitudes, facing different environmental conditions). This study analyzes the role of climate variability —during the growing season— in the use of these strategies, in a context of climate change in the Andean region. Using agrarian census data from 1994 and 2012 (district panel), the author finds that —controlling for other climate conditions and socio-economic factors—, an increase in intraseasonal climate variability leads farmers in colder areas (<11˚C during the growing season) to concentrate their crop portfolio into more tolerant crops and reduce intercropping (a practice potentially efficient at controlling pest and disease). This effect is especially strong in the Southern region. Given that Andean farmers received little to no help to adapt to climate change during the period under analysis, this study informs about farmers’ autonomous adaptation to climate changes and some specific issues that need to be part of the public intervention agenda.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Rural, Economic Development, Land, Ecology, and Farming
Political Geography:
Latin America and Peru

47. Fracture In Food And Agriculture As Urban And Rural Areas Integrate: Searching For New Horizons Where The Old Stalls

Author:
Bediz Yılmaz
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
We are at a time when old definitions are being shaken up. Here I will track these splits and try to see what traces are shaping in their place. Let’s start with the city and the rural area. There is a credo of a definition in urban sociology. Despite changes in the social reality and notwithstanding those sociological approaches with a critical perspective, this definition does not change and is repeated through generations. The definition says: “City is the place where nonagricultural economic activities take place.” It is difficult to assert the validity of this definition in any particular time in history, and one does not know where to begin to explain that it does not stand today either. If you live in a medium-sized city like Mersin it is especially difficult to tell apart the city and rural areas, which one violates the other, what exactly is a rural area and which way it falls.
Topic:
Agriculture, Food, Food Security, Economy, Urban, and Rural
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

48. Seasonal Migrants, Poverty Alleviation and Contract Sex in the Cocoa Producing Centers in the Littoral Quadrant of Cameroon: A Diagnostic Socio-Anthropological Study in the Post Colonial Era

Author:
Martin Sango Ndeh
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
Cocoa production forms a very important part of Cameroon’s agroindustrial enterprise particularly along the coastal forest zones along the Littoral Quadrant. There are several communities in the South West region of Cameroon, which economies rely heavily on the cocoa industry. These communities that include areas like Munyenge, Bafia, Bai Bikum, Ekata and many others operate seasonal economies that depend on the fluctuating harvest of the cocoa farmers. The peak periods of harvest in these cocoa producing communities are usually periods of boom that have a serious ripple effect on these communities’ economy. The cocoa industry in these areas is well organized and it has attracted migrant labor from far and near. There are migrants from far off places in the North West and Western regions of Cameroon who come and settle in cocoa producing areas in the South West Region2 . In these areas, there are different categories of cocoa plantation operators: those who own cocoa farms as sole proprietors, while others work as paid labor and others as Two-party operators.3 In these producing areas, there are other categories of workers like the cocoa buyers who act as intermediaries between the farmers and the exporting companies like TELCA. Cocoa buyers are agents who buy cocoa directly from the farmers and intend to sell to exporting companies. Some of the cocoa buyers are independent operators while others act as agents to cocoa exporting companies. These companies alongside the Cameroonian’s government have contributed enormously to develop the cocoa sector, which is an important export exchange earner. The government of Cameroon through regional bodies like South West Development Authority (SOWEDA) and the Rumpi Participatory Development Project4 have taken interest in enhancing the cocoa industry because of the role that it plays in the development of these particular areas and the nation as a whole. The growth and expansion of the cocoa sector in these areas has attracted a huge influx of migrants and it is against this backdrop that this paper establishes a link between cocoa production, seasonal migration and some of the social ills associated with these seasonal movements.
Topic:
Agriculture, Migration, Post Colonialism, Poverty, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

49. Creating a National Identity through Agricultural Education in Mandatory Palestine

Author:
Esther Yankelevitch
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
Formation of agricultural education in high schools was a milestone in the early 20th century history of Zionist education, and in the Jewish society in Mandatory Palestine in general. Agricultural education was a means of changing the character of the Jewish peo- ple by imparting agricultural knowledge and training. Candidates came from agricultural settlements, but mainly – and this was its uniqueness – they also came from the towns. In addition, agricultural education provided a framework for absorbing immigrant youth. This educational framework was, among other things, ideological because those who joined it were usually motivated by a desire to change the character of the Jewish society, return to the land and work it. The cost of funding agricultural schools was high for the local Jewish community, and therefore these schools remained dependent on private initiative and phi- lanthropy. In spite of the widespread ideological support, not many students actually took part in agricultural education due to the high cost of tuition on the one hand, and the need to help support their own families on the other. It can also be said that during this period, parents who had the means to provide their children with higher education, favored the “Gymnasium” high school model, which could lead to them engaging in other professions.
Topic:
Agriculture, Nationalism, Culture, and Identity
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

50. ‘Land Bandits’ or ‘Land Grabbers’: Fulani Herdsmen and Local Farmers Incessant Bloody Clashes in Nigeria

Author:
Seun Bamidele
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
Incessant bloody clashes between the Fulani herdsmen and local farmers in Africa have resulted in deaths and displacement. Different parts of Africa including Nigeria have experienced clashes between the Fulani herdsmen and local farmers throughout the colonial periods in Africa and even beyond (Abubakar 2012). The dire need for Fulani herdsmen to increase the productivity of their livestock farming in the midst of unfavourable climatic conditions have necessitated the search for adequate pasture for cattle grazing. In Africa, the Fulanis are about twenty million in number; they are one of the most widely dispersed and culturally diverse people scattered across Nigeria, Guinea, Mali, Niger, Cameroon, Chad and Sudan. The Fulanis, also known as the “Fula people or Fulbe” are the largest pastoral nomadic group in the world with root in West Africa, Northern part of Central Africa and Egypt (Adisa and Adekunke 2010). The common business of Fulanis is livestock production, they move from one region to another for grazing purposes. Livestock account for one third of Nigeria’s agricultural Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and contributes 16% of agricultural GDP; it is an important component of general agriculture and a key contributor to economic growth and development of any nation (Ojiako and Olayode 2008, 114). [...] The failure of the government policy on grazing reserve has left Fulani herdsmen to their fates, in determining where and how to raise their livestock. Amidst this situation, some medium and large corporate livestock farms have emerged, while many other Fulani herdsmen maintain their nomadic lifestyles. The latter live a sort of jungle life, characterized by selfhelp, in the search of grazing fields across the states, trying to protect their lives and properties from wild animals and cattle rustlers. These, among other things, have led to Fulani herdsmen being armed with dangerous military weapons like AK 47 and other dangerous ammunitions, which in turn have led to series of incessant bloody killings involving the Fulani herdsmen and local farmers in different rural communities across the country
Topic:
Agriculture, Conflict, and Land Rights
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria