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12. Turkey's Pivotal 2023 Elections: Issues, Potential Outcomes, and What Comes After
- Author:
- Soner Cagaptay
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On May 14, Turkey’s citizens will cast their ballots for president and parliament, and polls suggest the longtime incumbent could actually lose this time. President Erdogan’s challenger, Republican People’s Party head Kemal Kilicdaroglu, has assembled an ideologically diverse coalition united in its determination to oust the ruling bloc. Guiding the opposition, known popularly as the “Table of Six,” is a message focused on restoring competence amid sky-high inflation and a faltering response to the devastating February earthquakes. But Erdogan’s challengers still face headwinds created in part by his near-complete control of the media. In this Policy Note compilation, Turkey expert Soner Cagaptay and his fellow contributors concur that Erdogan will use polarizing tactics to keep power, whatever the results of the May 14 balloting or a possible May 28 presidential runoff. They also assess how various wild card developments—including the entry of spoiler candidate Muharrem Ince and meddling from Russia—could aid the Turkish leader in unforeseen ways.
- Topic:
- Politics, Elections, Democracy, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Strategic Competition, and AKP
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
13. Turkey’s Critical Elections
- Author:
- Alistair Taylor
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- On this week's episode Alistair Taylor, MEI's editor-in-chief, is joined by Gönül Tol, the founding director of MEI's Turkey Program and the author of "Erdogan's War: A Strongman's Struggle at Home and in Syria," to discuss Turkey's critical upcoming elections. After two decades in power, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party (AKP) are facing unprecedented challenges, including an economy in shambles, the ongoing impact of the devastating early February earthquakes, and a united opposition.
- Topic:
- Elections, Economy, Domestic Politics, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and AKP
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
14. Turkish - Egyptian Relations under Erdoğan in the Light of the Regional Security Complexes Theory
- Author:
- Martin Dudáš
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
- Institution:
- Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
- Abstract:
- AKP's rise to power in Turkey brought economic development and the reexamination of the country's self-perception. Erdoğan's foreign policy aimed to develop relations with Middle Eastern countries so that Turkey could become the region's leader. This article focuses on Turkey's relations with Egypt within the Regional Security Complexes Theory framework. It argues that the rise of Turkey's influence and power led to new alignments between the region's countries. Following the coup led by General el-Sisi, Egypt became hostile to Ankara and sought allies to help it counterbalance Turkey. Thus, it began cooperating with Greece and Cyprus, states that do not belong to the Middle Eastern RSC. This new alignment then slowed down the process of normalisation of ties between Cairo and Ankara, which became possible only after both countries experienced economic problems, and the regional climate changed after the blockade of Qatar ended.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, AKP, and Regional Security
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Egypt
15. Alcohol consumption in modern Turkey: Kulturkampf and polarization
- Author:
- Evangelos Areteos and Christina Kapodistria
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Α culture war (Kulturkampf) is raging in Turkey, and alcohol is one of the major fronts once again. Opposing cultural identities are emerging as a powerful instrument of polarization. The ongoing culture war is revealing the AKP’s potential, but also its limits.
- Topic:
- Religion, Culture, Alcohol, AKP, and Polarization
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
16. Democratic-values against authoritarianism? In the end it will be [again] the economy, stupid!
- Author:
- Ekrem Eddy Güzeldere
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Opposition parties around the world (e.g., in Hungary, Poland, Brazil and Turkey) have started to form alliances against authoritarian and illiberal leaders. The introduction of a presidential system in Turkey in 2018 made political parties join forces, since 50+1% would be needed to win the presidential elections. Since May 2018, first four and now six opposition parties have formed the so-called “Millet [Nation] Alliance”; almost all the polls place the Alliance well ahead of the government AKP-MHP alliance. In 2019, Millet Alliance candidates were able to win the municipal elections in Istanbul and Ankara. In May 2022, the Millet Alliance published ten clear, value-based principles, ranging from non-discrimination to freedom of the press, religion and thought through to the independence of the judiciary. The parties of the Millet Alliance are not remembered for defending democratic values in the past, but will they now? On topics like the Kurdish issue or refugees, the Millet Alliance is often harsher and more exclusionary than the government. However, the economic situation and the candidate put forward by the Millet Alliance More will be more decisive for the elections than a debate over values. Turkey does not have a choice between black and white, but rather between different shades of gray
- Topic:
- Authoritarianism, Democracy, Economy, Domestic Politics, and AKP
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
17. Media and Democratic Backsliding – Lessons from the Turkish Case
- Author:
- Eylem Yanardağoğlu
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- There has been a global trend towards democratic backsliding in various new and established democracies across the world since the 2010s. The Freedom House Freedom in the World report for 2022 noted that there have now been 15 consecutive years of decline in global freedom and that the long democratic recession is deepening. In Turkey, the AKP came to power in 2002 at a time marked by a relatively pro-European Union and pluralistic outlook in politics. The democratic backsliding in Turkey has been more obvious since 2007 and the start of the AKP’s second term in power. It deepened especially after the 2016 coup attempt and the transition to a presidential system in 2017. This democratic regression has also impacted on the media sector globally, especially through various coercive and non-coercive media capture strategies. Media concentration has been ongoing in many countries for many decades with a concomitant negative impact on media freedom, leading to a gradual decline in free and independent media. Current forms of media capture are considered more impactful than earlier methods, due to the rise of business structures that operate in tandem with state authorities to capture media outlets. In Turkey, and across those countries in which media capture is prevalent, the mainstream media is vanishing as a result of polarization; two distinct journalisms are emerging in their place, one of which is based on a propaganda model and erodes media and press freedom.
- Topic:
- Authoritarianism, Democracy, AKP, Polarization, Freedom of Press, and Democratic Backsliding
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
18. Nationalism, enmity and reconciliation: Turkish party supporters’ polarized views on Greece
- Author:
- Evangelos Areteos
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Supporters of the current government in Turkey have significantly stronger nationalistic attitudes towards Greece and Greeks than the supporters of the opposition parties. Turkey is extremely polarized along party lines. Religion and education significantly shape perceptions in both Turkey and Greece. In Greece, the levels of nationalism towards Turkey are significantly higher than they are in Turkey towards Greece, but vary far less across the political spectrum.
- Topic:
- Nationalism, Public Opinion, Reconciliation, AKP, and Polarization
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Greece
19. Turkey's Growing Role as a Security Actor in Somalia: Dynamics and Motivations
- Author:
- Abdurrahim Siradag
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Academic Inquiries
- Institution:
- Sakarya University (SAU)
- Abstract:
- Somalia has a special place in the foreign policy of the Justice and Development Party (AK Party), which has been in power since November 2002. Turkey's relations with Somalia started to develop after the official visit of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Somalia on 19 August 2011, who was the prime minister at that time, to support Somalis affected by severe drought and civil war. After 2011, Turkey launched one of the largest humanitarian aid campaigns to Somalia. Turkey has not only developed a soft power policy in Somalia but also started to implement a hard power policy. In this respect, Turkey has been training hundreds of Somali soldiers and police in both Ankara and Mogadishu since 2012. At the same time, Turkey opened its largest military base abroad in Somalia in 2017. This research explores the reasons and dynamics behind Turkey's deepening of its security policy in Somalia and sheds light on what Turkey's security policy means for Somalia. The research argues that there is a combination of factors driving Turkey's security policy towards Somalia, including socio-cultural, economic, and geopolitical. This study examines Turkey's security policy with a holistic approach, using conceptual and theoretical perspectives.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Soft Power, and AKP
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Turkey, Middle East, and Somalia
20. The 2023 Elections: Legitimization of the New Türkiye
- Author:
- Christos Teazis
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In our latest issue of Turkeyscope, Dr. Christos Teazis reveals the gradual transformation of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) into a state party by examining the modus operandi of the state founder Republican People's Party (CHP).
- Topic:
- History, Elections, Domestic Politics, Political Parties, and AKP
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
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