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261. Palestine 2023: Palestinian Perception of Migration

Author:
Arab Barometer
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
On the eve of October 7, about a third of Gazans and about a fifth of West Bankers said they were considering emigrating from Palestine. The main drivers seem economic, political, educational, security and concerns about corruption. The most preferred destination for immigration is Turkey, followed by Germany, Canada, the United States and Qatar. The vast majority of Palestinians reported receiving no remittances from relatives in the diaspora. The vast majority supports the right of foreign domestic workers in Palestine to always have their passports, to a day off a week, and to a bank account in which they receive their salaries. These are the results of the latest wave of the Arab Barometer (AB) poll in Palestine, the 8th to be conducted since the start of these polls in the Arab World. This report is restricted to findings related to Palestinian perception of migration. The poll was conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip essentially during the period immediately before the start of the October the 7th war in the Gaza Strip and its envelop on the Israeli side.
Topic:
Security, Corruption, Education, Migration, Economy, and Survey
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and West Bank

262. Burkina Faso’s Prolonged Transition: Failed Promises and Governance Shortcomings

Author:
Emmanuel Yeboah
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Ghana Center for Democratic Development
Abstract:
July 2024 was expected to mark the end of Burkina Faso's transion back to civilian rule, with a presidenal elecon intended to restore constuonal order aer two years of polical uncertainty. However, as many had ancipated, worsening security situaon, coupled with other challenges would become a pretext for the junta to consolidate its hold on power. On September 29, 2023, Captain Ibrahim Traoré, the junta leader, declared that the scheduled elecons in July 2024 were “not a priority,” and that the constuon would be modified, casng doubt on the prospects for a mely democrac transion. On May 25, 2024, the military government stunned many democracy watchers by announcing an extension of their rule unl 2029, following what they termed a "naonal conference." This decision, however, was met with widespread skepcism, as the dialogue was largely boycoed by civil society, polical pares, and other key stakeholders. The announcement dealt a severe blow to hopes for a democrac transion, reinforcing fears that the junta intended to hold onto power indefinitely. Adding to the sense of stagnaon, the junta celebrates its two-year anniversary on September 29, 2024. This study builds upon a previous report to provide a comprehensive update and evaluaon of Burkina Faso's ongoing transion process. It offers a detailed analysis of the challenges faced by the transion, providing crical insights into the effecveness of military governments in addressing governance issues and their impact on the country's stability and development. The study further contributes to the broader discourse on the path to restoring democrac order in Burkina Faso.
Topic:
Security, Governance, Geopolitics, Democratic Transitions, and Political Transition
Political Geography:
Africa and Burkina Faso

263. Camp David and US-Japan-ROK Trilateral Security and Defense Cooperation: Consolidating the Northeast Asia Anchor in the Indo-Pacific

Author:
Yasuyo Sakata
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
Yasuyo Sakata provides a historical overview of US-Japan-ROK defense cooperation in Northeast Asia, from the Korean War to the Camp David Summit, explaining how the trilateral partnership was redefined as an Indo-Pacific partnership and incorporated the “Northeast Asia Anchor.” Sakata argues that Japan and the United States have taken the lead in reconstructing the Indo-Pacific security architecture through their Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) strategies, and that the US-Japan-ROK trilateral relationship has been incorporated into this framework alongside other alliances such as the Quad and AUKUS. Sakata explores how Korea’s shift back towards the Indo-Pacific under President Yoon’s leadership has allowed for expansion of the scope of US-Japan-ROK trilateral cooperation, as affirmed during the Camp David Summit. However, Sakata contends that a comprehensive defense approach is needed in the Indo-Pacific involving allies and partners to build upon this foundation and strengthen defense and security cooperation amidst the challenges posed by North Korea, the Taiwan Strait, maritime security, cybersecurity, and space. Action is essential, as time is running out to solidify gains from the Camp David Summit and build a stable relationship. Therefore, Sakata argues that Japan and South Korea should strengthen relations deliberately yet cautiously before domestic politics potentially spoil recent progress.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Alliance, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

264. Trilateralism in the Wake of the 2022 Jolt Toward Bipolarity in the Indo-Pacific and World

Author:
Gilbert Rozman
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
Gil Rozman argues that trilateralism reached unprecedented levels in the first two decades of the 21st century. Russia, Japan, and South Korea each sought different triangular frameworks to position themselves at the pivot of great power relations in Northeast Asia and the broader Indo-Pacific region. However, Rozman contends that by 2024 trilateralism had shifted to reinforce bipolarity amidst great power competition. After describing three types of triangular frameworks, Rozman examines the transformation of trilateralism in the Indo-Pacific region from 2022 to 2024 (particularly in Northeast Asia), analyzes the challenges military security, economic security, and national identity gaps pose to trilateralism, and evaluates the potential impact of leadership on triangular relationships. The shift from what Rozman calls triangular pivots to alliance triangles in international relations is primarily driven by security concerns yet also by economic vulnerability and national identity gaps. For Korea, the US-Japan-ROK alliance triangle, which was solidified at the Camp David Summit, is at the center of triangular solidarity. Given the polarized international and regional environment, Rozman argues it is unlikely that leadership could reverse the current trend of alliance triangle consolidation in the near future.
Topic:
Security, Alliance, Strategic Competition, Regional Politics, and Trilateralism
Political Geography:
Russia, Japan, South Korea, and Indo-Pacific

265. From Security Alliance to Comprehensive Technology Centered Partnership

Author:
Scott Snyder
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
The Joe Biden and Yoon Suk-yeol administrations have embraced the expansion of economic cooperation within the US-ROK alliance, leading to the emergence of South Korea as a valued technology partner of the United States and an era of institutionalization for the bilateral relationship. This issue of Korea Policy examines the commitments of the two governments to cooperate on the development of critical and emerging technologies and is intended to capture major changes in the depth of cooperation reflected in the intensification and expansion of policy dialogues between the two countries in both technology development and the defense industrial base. Major themes highlighted across the papers include challenges to maintaining a technology-centered coalition among like-minded partners, the impact of political transition on the sustainability of technology-driven cooperation, the role of the private sector, and the implications of expanding the concept of an alliance beyond its core security-centered logic. As the alliance management baton passes from the Biden to the Donald Trump administration, an important question will be whether the Biden administration’s efforts to “lock in” institutionalized cooperation are sustainable through the political transition and whether such efforts will only be successful with “buy-in” from President Trump and his new administration.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

266. CTC Sentinel: June 2024 Issue

Author:
Paul Cruickshank, Petter Nesser, Wassim Nasr, Alexandre Rodde, and David Mcilhatton
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Beginning in late July, the world’s attention will focus on Paris for the 2024 Summer Olympic Games, followed by the Paralympics. In our cover article, Petter Nesser and Wassim Nasr describe a threat landscape facing the Games that is “diverse and multifaceted” with “both known and predictable terror threats and others that are less likely on paper but hold the potential for surprise.” “Jihadism,” they write, “remains the main non-state terror threat to Western Europe, France, and the Olympics, with Islamic State Khorasan posing a clear and present danger to the Games.” Richard Walton, former head of the London Metropolitan Police’s Counter Terrorism Command who led its counterterrorism efforts during the 2012 Olympics, offers insights into what security services are facing with the Paris Games. “This will be France’s biggest peacetime security policing challenge,” he surmises. “It will be France’s biggest test of their new intelligence infrastructure since they reviewed it post-2015 after the Paris attacks.” The stakes will be high throughout the entire country for the duration of the Olympics and Paralympics, he notes. “Any attack in France during the Games is an attack on the Games.” Alexandre Rodde, David Mcilhatton, John Cuddihy, and Rachel Monaghan describe the attractiveness of sports venues as terrorist targets as well as the associated public spaces that support these competitions, such as hotels, restaurants, and public transportation—what they refer to as the events’ “supply chain.” While security at venues is always robust during competitions, they warn that “what is left more exposed is the supply chain to these events. There are simply too many locations and businesses to provide protective security measures at scale … significant importance must be placed on engaging as many of those locations as possible, by providing training for businesses to help them understand the threats they might face, what to do if something does happen, and how to recover.” Finally, Yannick Veilleux-Lepage examines right-wing extremists’ use of 3D-printed firearms (3DPF). Utilizing an original dataset of 35 incidents worldwide, he investigates “the geographical and temporal spread of 3DPF use by RWE” and outlines several of the main motivations for their use. He finds “a troubling increase in the incidents involving 3DPF across multiple regions, indicating a spread beyond isolated communities into more mainstream adoption among right-wing extremist factions” with the number of cases rising from just one incident in 2017 to 11 in 2023. This data-driven article will serve as an important foundational piece of work upon which other researchers and practitioners can build so that the CT community can better track the evolution of this important and evolving threat area.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Olympics, Supply Chains, and Salafi-Jihadism
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and France

267. Friends in space: NATO and Japan cooperation beyond the skies

Author:
Nanae Baldauff
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
NATO and Japan share compelling reasons for space security cooperation: worldwide ownership of space assets; Japan as among six most capable space powers; and the application of Article 5 to space. Japan is attractive to NATO in terms of space technology, space capabilities, operation, and funding. NATO is attractive to Japan because NATO is becoming a backbone of space-based data hub contributing to the Alliance’ Multi-Domain Operations. NATO-Japan space security cooperation should be pursued through political, operational, educational, and industrial/commercial partnership, and joint training and exercises.
Topic:
Security, NATO, International Cooperation, and Space
Political Geography:
Japan and Asia

268. The Future of Cyberwarfare in Northeast Asia

Author:
Minwoo Yun
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
A new phase of global geostrategic hegemonic conflict is intensifying. The theater of this emerging hegemonic struggle encompasses not only conventional physical realms-land, sea, air, and space-but also virtual realms of cyber and human cognition. Northeast Asia has emerged as the epicenter of this new round of global conflict. The victor in the geostrategic struggle within Northeast Asia is poised to exert a greater influence over the entire Eurasian theater of the New Cold War. In the Northeast Asian theater, the US, Japan, and South Korea stand against China, North Korea, and Russia. Cyberwarfare holds a pivotal role in this confrontation, as all parties possess advanced information technology, scientific capabilities, and cyberwarfare prowess. Consequently, in the context of Northeast Asia, cyberwarfare could be a decisive factor in determining the outcome of the geostrategic conflict, possibly more so than in any other region. This article explores the future of cyberwarfare in Northeast Asia. To accomplish this, it will delve into the geostrategic significance of Northeast Asia in the broader global hegemonic conflict, underscore the importance of cyberwarfare in future warfare, and ultimately examine the current state and prospective evolution of cyberwarfare in the Northeast Asian context.
Topic:
Security, Cybersecurity, Espionage, Influence, and Warfare
Political Geography:
Asia and North Korea

269. Global Dynamics in a Year of Domestic Contestations and Political Shifts

Author:
Karim El Aynaoui, Paola Magri, Samir Saran, Harsh V. Pant, and Vivek Mishra
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
2024 marked the largest election year in history, with millions of people across the world going to the polls to elect their representatives and leaders. However, in the Global North, Donald Trump’s decisive election victory in the United States threatens to undermine multilateral governance structures that are already under strain. In the Global South, emerging economies from the expanded BRICS group and beyond strive to speak with a single voice, and their actions continue to be shaped by national dynamics. How will domestic shifts impact international collaboration across the globe? Will we experience new trade wars? Will efforts to tackle climate change slow down? And how to restore hope and support a newfound impetus in multilateral governance? Seeking to answer these questions, the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI), the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) in India and the Policy Center for the New South (PCNS) in Morocco, are delighted to announce the launch of the 2nd Annual Trends Report, involving experts from the three think tanks.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Development, Science and Technology, Governance, Economy, Global South, Multilateralism, Donald Trump, Energy, Geoeconomics, and Digital Transition
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

270. Financing European air defence through European Union debt

Author:
Armin Steinbach and Guntram B. Wolff
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Europe is vulnerable to air attacks by both state and non-state actors. Russia has substantially increased its production of hypersonic missiles, missiles and drones, while European air defence capacities remain patchy with little improvement in coverage in recent years. Air defence is a classic European public good. No individual nation alone can provide it comprehensively, while air defence provided individual European Union countries can offer significant benefits to Europe as a whole. Joint EU funding for the build-up of greater air defence capabilities would be thus justified and help ensure rapid and sufficient provisioning. Debt funding would be economically justified as air defence systems, such as Patriot and IRIS-T, involve large upfront costs – debt would allow the cost of the investment to be smoothed over longer periods. Issuing EU debt, similarly to what was done with the NextGenerationEU post-pandemic recovery instrument, would be justified given the level of the air-attack threat. EU debt funding of air defence system is legally possible. Debt funding for air defence would respect the EU’s limited competence in defence and such a scheme would maintain the exceptional character of debt funding, with EU countries responding to a security threat in an act of solidarity. Joint debt issuance would not imply changing the command structure of air defence as foreseen under NATO and the European Sky Shield Initiative, but it would impact procurement processes. Procurement could be organised in the framework of the EU’s existing Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) system. Additional EU debt would benefit the development of European industrial capacities in air defence, even if in the short term some funds were used to buy systems from the United States. Significant funds for research and the development of the domestic industrial base should be part of the initiative.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Debt, European Union, Finance, Macroeconomics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine