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11. Empirical Analysis of Turkish Banking Sector Institutional and Macroeconomic Determinants of Risks

Author:
Hikmet Akyol and Selim Başar
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
This research examines the macroeconomic and institutional sources of individual, systemic, and systematic risks in the Turkish banking sector. The period between 2008:Q3 and 2019:Q3 of the nine deposit banks selected for this purpose were estimated using panel data analysis estimators. The results indicate that selected macroeconomic and institutional variables affect banking risks. These findings are important for revealing the institutional and macroeconomic sources of risks in the Turkish banking sector. Therefore, the results contain significant propositions for researchers, market participants, and politicians. Market participants and researchers can anticipate defaults and financial instability using selected macroeconomic and institutional variables. The estimation results reveal Turkish banks’ institutional soundness and financial performance strength. In addition, the extent to which banks are effective intermediaries in the sector was analysed. This research documented a strong link between global market indicators and banking risks.
Topic:
Finance, Macroeconomics, Risk, and Banking
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

12. If-Then Commitments for AI Risk Reduction

Author:
Holden Karnofsky
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
If-then commitments are an emerging framework for preparing for risks from AI without unnecessarily slowing the development of new technology. The more attention and interest there is in these commitments, the faster a mature framework can progress.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Risk, Innovation, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

13. Controlling the danger: managing the risks of AI-enabled nuclear systems

Author:
Noah Greene
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
Research on AI and nuclear weapons often discusses three broad categories of risk: technical risks, pitfalls in human-machine teaming, and strategic stability concerns. The potential solutions for mitigating these risks include international political declarations, United Nations level reporting, and a limited purpose AIenabled nuclear weapons treaty.
Topic:
NATO, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Weapons, Risk, Artificial Intelligence, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

14. Cybersecurity and UN Peace Operations: Evolving Risks and Opportunities

Author:
Dirk Druet
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
This paper discusses the growing potential cybersecurity vulnerabilities of UN peace operations. Fast-moving changes in the cyber capabilities of state and non-state actors, the changing nature of asymmetric warfare, and the positioning of the UN in relation to global and regional geopolitics are increasingly placing peace operations in the crosshairs of complex cybersecurity threats. In parallel to these external trends, internal trends in missions’ intelligence, surveillance, and data management technologies also make them more vulnerable to cyber threats. At the same time, there are opportunities for missions to leverage cybersecurity infrastructure to support the implementation of their mandates, including in the areas of mediation and political settlements and the protection of civil society actors. The paper provides an overview of the cyber threats facing peace operations and opportunities to leverage cybersecurity tools for mandate implementation. It also documents the operational and policy challenges that have arisen and the Secretariat’s efforts to address them. It concludes with several recommendations for the UN as peace operations seek to operate in an increasingly fraught political and cybersecurity environment: The Secretariat should develop cross-cutting operational concepts and guidance for cyber threat assessments. The Secretariat should articulate its understanding of its duty of care for staff privacy and develop operational guidance and expertise for mitigating threats to privacy. When facilitating political processes, peace operations should consider whether cybersecurity measures will be equally effective in deterring hacking attempts by all parties to ensure they do not exacerbate “information asymmetries.” The UN should explore the boundaries around missions evading or obstructing surveillance or intrusion activities by host states to secure their operations. The Secretariat should mitigate the volume of data exposed to external systems, including by deploying UN-owned and UN-operated intelligence and surveillance devices when possible.
Topic:
United Nations, Peacekeeping, Cybersecurity, Risk, and Asymmetric Warfare
Political Geography:
Global Focus

15. Updating the EU strategy on China: co-existence while derisking through partnerships

Author:
Alicia Garcia-Herrero and Abigaël Vasselier
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
The European Union-China relationship has deteriorated markedly since the EU introduced a three-part strategy in 2019 based on partnership, competition and systemic rivalry. Th e relationship has been undermined by China’s support for Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and its increasingly anti-Western foreign policy that aims to alter the international rules-based system. Meanwhile, the economic relationship is changing because of China’s structural deceleration and increasing self-reliance, coupled with the EU’s growing critical dependence on China, especially for digitalisation and decarbonisation. Europe must accept that relations with China will not return to their pre-pandemic state. While there is no need to change the overall strategy, the EU should seek co-existence with China while preserving EU values and interests. Cooperation is still needed to address global problems, including climate change, in which China plays an important role in finding solutions, but on which the EU cannot accept Chinese cooperation at any price. In terms of co-existence, the EU must continue to pursue de-risking – or reducing its exposure to China – especially for its energy and digital transitions. De-risking has started but more needs to be done to understand how it can be continued while not creating conflict. The EU should pursue a three-part approach: increase coherence and coordination with all European stakeholders, refi ne the EU economic-security strategy while accepting trade-offs, and seek partnerships as the best offensive tool. The 2024-2029 European Commission should foster discussion of China and coordination of strategic issues within a larger constituency. EU countries, with Commission coordination, need to be more involved in building a comprehensive approach, including by conducting national risk assessments and by shaping and implementing de-risking measures. On economic security, full implementation of current defensive instruments is needed, along with new protections, such as better coordination of export controls and a new outbound-investment screening mechanism. The trade-offs stemming from pursuing more security will need to be made explicit in order to mitigate them. On partnerships, the EU must look beyond the United States, working within the G7 and with other like-minded countries, such as Australia and South Korea, which have valuable experience of de-risking. Mutually beneficial and strategic cooperation agreements need to be brokered with relevant emerging and developing economies.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, European Union, Partnerships, Economy, Risk, Trade, and Coexistence
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia