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21. Estimating the vulnerability of industrial network infrastructure in Central and Eastern Europe

Author:
Mateusz Gzegorz Twardawa, Marek Smolik, Franciszek Rakowski, Jakub Kwiatkowski, and Norbert Meyer
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
Industrial infrastructure has suffered an unprecedented number of attacks in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). This situation can be attributed to many geopolitical factors, including hybrid military conflicts and criminal activity. Industrial networks belonging to the countries that were once under Soviet influence suffer from an elevated risk of cyberattacks. The goal of this work is to propose an easy way to estimate the vulnerabilities of industrial networks to cyber threats on a national level. Since analysis of the industrial vulnerability landscape is difficult, this study proposes an assessment based on the popularity of vulnerable technologies—VPc. This metric is composed of search volume data on keywords related to industrial network technologies and reported security vulnerabilities associated with these words. Data on 116 keywords was analysed and a country-specific VPc index was calculated for twenty states in CEE. The analysis of the popularity of industrial technologies and vendors in CEE reveals interesting information about the industrial security and vulnerability landscape. The results show that some countries (e.g. Estonia) have more resilient industrial infrastructure than others (e.g. Belarus). The results presented in this study are not in conflict with other data and estimation attempts, including the National Cyber Security Index (NCSI). As new vulnerabilities are noted every day, the industrial security landscape changes rapidly. Therefore, a new easy-to-use metric (VPc) can be successfully used for general estimations. This work shows that the VPc score agrees with other estimates and analyses, but as with any other general estimation tool, it must be used with caution.
Topic:
International Security, Infrastructure, Cybersecurity, Industry, Vulnerability, and Network Security
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Europe

22. Leveraging competitive intelligence in offensive cyber counterintelligence: An operational approach for the shipping industry

Author:
Anastasios-Nikolaos Kanellopoulos
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
In the contemporary landscape of rapid digitalization, the shipping industry is increasingly confronted with unparalleled cybersecurity threats, necessitating a transition towards proactive strategies to address these evolving risks. Traditional methodologies have proven inadequate, thereby necessitating the integration of Competitive Intelligence (CI) within Offensive Cyber Counterintelligence (OCCI) frameworks. This paper investigates the interdependent relationship between CI and OCCI, underscoring their combined potential to safeguard organizational interests and enhance cybersecurity resilience. The primary objectives of this study are to elucidate the foundational principles and significance of CI within business contexts, to explore the theoretical underpinnings of OCCI, and to propose a structured framework for the integration of CI into OCCI operations specifically tailored to the shipping sector. Theoretical constructs highlight the critical importance of proactive measures in mitigating cyber threats and sustaining a competitive advantage in the digital era. Through a comprehensive analysis of the literature, this interdisciplinary approach provides practitioners with the opportunity to evaluate and implement the proposed framework. The insights garnered from this study hold significant implications for both academic research and industry practice, promoting ongoing collaboration in the development of robust frameworks for integrating CI within OCCI operations.
Topic:
Intelligence, International Security, Cybersecurity, Resilience, Shipping, Strategic Management, and Counterintelligence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

23. SCADvanceXP—an intelligent Polish system for threat detection and monitoring of industrial networks

Author:
Mateusz Gzegorz Twardawa, Marek Smolik, Franciszek Rakowski, Jakub Kwiatkowski, and Norbert Meyer
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
SCADvanceXP is an industrial network intrusion detection system that scans and monitors data exchange between engineering stations, field divides, controllers, supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA), and other elements of the operational technology network in detail. SCADvanceXP has the potential to detect advanced attacks on industrial infrastructures with the use of rulebased, signature-based, and behavioural detection methods, which are supported by sophisticated machine and deep learning models. As a system developed in Poland, it addresses the needs of industry in that region of Europe. The goal of this work was to assess SCADvanceXP’s potential to detect common industrial threats. In order to check SCADvanceXP’s potential, an effort was undertaken to evaluate its functionality on major industrial threats. For that purpose, twelve malware strains interfering with industrial systems were described. Later, the SCADvanceXP functionality was overlapped on malware behavioural and detection markers, pointing out exact mechanisms in SCADvanceXP that would detect analysed threats. The results show that SCADvanceXP is able to detect a wide range of attacks on industrial networks. SCADvanceXP’s rich functionality is able to provide a high standard of security. However, if a threat is affecting systems not directly connected with industrial networks, SCADvanceXP will not be able to detect it. SCADvanceXP only monitors industrial systems; hence, corporate networks must be protected by a different solution to provide the required level of security. Nonetheless, SCADvanceXP is dedicated to operating within industrial networks and does not have access to regular IT networks. It can be concluded that SCADvanceXP is a specialist tool providing desired security for industrial networks.
Topic:
International Security, Cybersecurity, Malware, and Industrial Networks
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

24. The Coming Conflict with Hezbollah

Author:
Seth G. Jones, Daniel Byman, Alexander Palmer, and Riley McCabe
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Although the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza has captured the world’s attention, there is a serious risk of war between Israel and Hezbollah, according to a new assessment by CSIS. Since October 7, 2023, there have been over 4,400 rocket, missile, and other stand-off attacks by Israel and Hezbollah combined. Hezbollah has also repeatedly violated UN Security Council Resolution 1701 by deploying forces and firing anti-tank guided missiles and other stand-off weapons against Israel from the zone between the Blue Line and the Litani River, according to CSIS geolocation analysis. The United States needs to increase its diplomatic engagement to prevent what could become a much wider and more violent war in the Middle East.
Topic:
Defense Policy, International Security, Counter-terrorism, Geopolitics, Transnational Actors, Hezbollah, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

25. Not Just Boots on the Beach: How China Can Use Deception, Confusion, and Incrementalism to Change the Status Quo on Taiwan

Author:
Jude Blanchette and Hal Brands
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Edited by Jude Blanchette of CSIS and Hal Brands of SAIS, the Marshall Papers is a series of essays that probes and challenges the assessments underpinning the U.S. approach to great power rivalry. The papers will be rigorous yet provocative, continually pushing the boundaries of intellectual and policy debates. In this Marshall Paper, Jude Blanchette and Hal Brands explore four coercive approaches that Beijing could use to change the status quo around Taiwan short of outright invasion or blockade. The paper also highlights the serious challenges Washington and Taipei must address to have a ready response to these scenarios.
Topic:
International Security, Territorial Disputes, Geopolitics, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and Asia

26. Soviet Lessons for China Watching

Author:
Ford Hart
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Edited by Jude Blanchette of CSIS and Hal Brands of SAIS, the Marshall Papers is a series of essays that probes and challenges the assessments underpinning the U.S. approach to great power rivalry. The papers will be rigorous yet provocative, continually pushing the boundaries of intellectual and policy debates. In this Marshall Paper, Ford Hart argues that Chinese Communist Party (CCP) political institutions, the CCP’s practical behavior, and continued veneration of Marxism-Leninism in the CCP constitution highlight the Soviet model’s deep influence on Beijing. As such, lessons from the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) can help us understand the CCP’s approach to governance today.
Topic:
International Security, Geopolitics, Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and Soviet Union
Political Geography:
China and United States of America

27. Addressing Arctic Vulnerabilities: Lessons from Ukraine

Author:
Jonas Vidhammer Berge
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
The Arctic is quickly becoming a theater of global competition—a development that has accelerated since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. In order to protect critical undersea communications infrastructure, decrease intra-alliance dependency on U.S. space-based capabilities, and deter Russian gray-zone tactics, NATO-aligned Arctic states—the United States, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden—must enhance situational awareness of these vulnerabilities. By applying lessons learned from the war in Ukraine on how technological advancements can shape military strategy and the operational environment, specifically with regards to resilient space capabilities, cost-efficient unmanned systems, and rapid procurement processes for evolving technological capabilities, Arctic states can improve both deterrence and potential warfighting in the region.
Topic:
International Security, Geopolitics, Strategic Competition, Vulnerability, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Arctic

28. Political Drivers of China’s Changing Nuclear Policy: Implications for U.S.-China Nuclear Relations and International Security

Author:
Tong Zhao
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The message from Chinese officials has become increasingly clear: the United States and China should first stabilize their political relationship before taking on nuclear issues.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, International Security, Bilateral Relations, and Decision-Making
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and United States of America