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1. How reliable are national accounts estimates of agricultural output?

Author:
Sam Jones and Marcelo Mucocana
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Measurement errors in macroeconomic aggregates such as GDP have been widely lamented, particularly in low-income contexts. This study investigates the reliability of one component of national accounts, agricultural sector output. Focusing first on the case of Mozambique, we use a series of 12 harmonized national agricultural micro-surveys to construct estimates of gross annual output in the sector. Compared to corresponding national accounts values for the period 2002–20, the micro-survey estimates are about 50% lower. A decomposition exercise indicates this gap is primarily driven by differences in base year levels, offset by higher rates of inflation observed in survey-based producer prices. Triangulating these estimates using household budget surveys, market price, and FAO production data, we find consistent support for the agricultural micro-survey estimates, suggesting real rates of total GDP growth may have been overestimated by 1 percentage point over the period. A cross-country comparison of national accounts and FAO production data indicates positive differences between estimates of agricultural output from the two sources are not unique to Mozambique, but with larger discrepancies among lower-income countries. Systematic investment in reliable and timely agricultural statistics is essential to track progress in the sector.
Topic:
Agriculture, GDP, Macroeconomics, and Survey
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

2. Good Governance and Rule of Law Effect on GDP Growth: Lessons for Emerging Economies

Author:
Esat A. Durguti, Avni Alidemaj, and Anatolijs Krivins
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
The overall aim of this article is to explore the effect of governance parameters on gross domestic product (GDP) in the 15 countries of the European Union (EU15) as well as the 6 countries of Southeast Europe (SEE6). The research employed the dynamic methodology generalized methods of moments (GMM) to explore the data gathered from the World Bank and the Global Economy database stretching 2000 - 2022, correspondingly 2008 - 2022. Our analyzed result for EU15 confirms that regulatory quality (RQ), government effectiveness (GE), and rule of law (RL) positively influence GDP; instead, control of corruption (CC) negatively influences GDP. The results obtained for SEE6 reveal that GE and CC positively influence GDP, but instead, the RL negatively influences GDP. Additionally, RQ in the SEE6 instance has shown an insignificant influence on GDP. Unfortunately, the study could not cover every country in both panel groups because of data limitations. Regarding the study’s conclusions, increased dedication to applying and undertaking reform measures for the key governance indicators for SEE6 countries would be helpful. These insights may raise the need to create specific mechanisms for the RL and CC. Compared to other research, the novelty and originality of the present research lies in the fact that it used panel data via the dynamic GMM approach to explore the role of improving government quality metrics in GDP.
Topic:
Corruption, Governance, GDP, Economic Growth, and Emerging Economies
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3. Relationship between Organic Agriculture And GDP Per Capita, Economic Growth, and Unemployment: Panel Data Analysis

Author:
Kurtuluş Merdan
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
The increase in the world population recently has also increased the need for agricultural products. The need for food products has made it necessary to obtain more products per unit area. At this point, producers have focussed on the use of hormones, chemicals, and fertilisers to increase productivity and meet the demand for cheap food, and the process that increases production in the short term has become a threat to human health in the long term. Over time, the negative effects of chemicals on humans and the environment were observed, forcing producers to seek new methods. This process has led to independent studies on organic agriculture in every country. In this study, the effects of organic agriculture on some economic variables were revealed. In this context, the analyses focus now the variables of area allocated to organic agriculture on a regional basis, production amount and number of producers affected GDP per capita, economic growth, and unemployment in Turkey between 2003 and 2021. The scientific dimension of the study was prepared using data obtained from domestic and foreign literature and the electronic database of the Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock. In this study, in which panel data analysis was used, EViews 12 programme was employed. For the variables used in the study, the geographical region cross-section dependence was determined, and the stationarity of the series was examined with the CIPS (Cross-Sectionally Augmented IPS) unit root test. As a result of the study, it was determined that organic production amount, number of organic farmers, and organic production area did not have a significant effect on economic growth and unemployment. Organic production area and the number of organic farmers had a positive and significant effect on GDP per capita, but the amount of organic production did not have a significant relationship.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, GDP, Economic Growth, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

4. Panel Data Analysis of Export Structure and Growth: Case of BRICS-T Countries

Author:
Necip Dündar and Yüksel Bayraktar
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
Realisation of specialisation in areas dominated by technological production structure and the technological level of exported goods are essential determinants of macroeconomic performance. Therefore, the export structure and technological level of exported goods are highly significant. In this study, the relationship between real GDP and exports of goods produced in BRICS-T countries with low, medium, and high levels of skill and technology is investigated. In the panel data analysis using data for the period 1995–2020, the cointegration relationship between the variables was examined, and it was concluded that there is no long-run relationship between real GDP and goods produced in labour-resource intensive, low, medium, and high skill and technology levels of countries. In addition, a causality test using Dumitrescu and Hurlin’s (2012) linear heterogeneous model was carried out. The test results showed a unidirectional causality relationship between real GDP and goods with low and high skill and technology but a bidirectional causality relationship between real GDP and labour-resource-intensive goods.
Topic:
Science and Technology, GDP, Economic Growth, Exports, and BRICS
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5. Developing an International Macroeconomic Forecasting Model Based on Big Data

Author:
Sang-Ha Yoon
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
In the era of big data, economists are exploring new data sources and methodologies to improve economic forecasting. This study examines the potential of big data and machine learning in enhancing the predictive power of international macroeconomic forecasting models. The research utilizes both structured and unstructured data to forecast Korea's GDP growth rate. For structured data, around 200 macroeconomic and financial indicators from Korea and the U.S. were used with machine learning techniques (Random Forest, XGBoost, LSTM) and ensemble models. Results show that machine learning generally outperforms traditional econometric models, particularly for one-quarter-ahead forecasts, although performance varies by country and period. For unstructured data, the study uses Naver search data as a proxy for public sentiment. Using Dynamic Model Averaging and Selection (DMA and DMS) techniques, it incorporates eight Naver search indices alongside traditional macroeconomic variables. The findings suggest that online search data improves predictive power, especially in capturing economic turning points. The study also compares these big data-driven models with a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model. While DSGE offers policy analysis capabilities, its in-sample forecasts make direct comparison difficult. However, DMA and DMS models using search indices seem to better capture the GDP plunge in 2020. Based on the research findings, the author offers several suggestions to maximize the potential of big data. He stresses the importance of discovering and constructing diverse data sources, while also developing new analytical techniques such as machine learning. Furthermore, he suggests that big data models can be used as auxiliary indicators to complement existing forecasting models, and proposes that combining structural models with big data methodologies could create synergistic effects. Lastly, by using text mining on various online sources to build comprehensive databases, we can secure richer and more real-time economic data. These suggestions demonstrate the significant potential of big data in improving the accuracy of international macroeconomic forecasting, particularly emphasizing its effectiveness in situations where the economy is undergoing rapid changes.
Topic:
GDP, Economic Growth, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

6. Beyond GDP: A compendium of regional feminist perspectives

Author:
Jennifer Lipenga, Lumonya Faith, Samia al-Botmeh, Nalini Rathnarajah, and Natalia Quiroga Diaz
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
In this publication, leading feminist thinkers from Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, South Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, share perspectives on why we must move beyond gross domestic product (GDP) as the primary measure of societal progress. Drawing on regional examples, they demonstrate how the GDP-growth obsession is skewing policy-making towards measures that drive austerity, debt, corporate power, and exploitative labour practices, whilst invisibilising unpaid care and domestic work. In a call to action, the authors highlight Indigenous and feminist alternatives that need to be pursued to catalyse a shift towards economies that centre care of people and the planet.
Topic:
GDP, Feminism, Decolonization, and Systems Change
Political Geography:
Africa, South Asia, Middle East, Latin America, North Africa, and Caribbean