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291. Ukraine's accession negotiations with the European Union: reforms undertaken in ten years and the challenges ahead

Author:
Snizhana Diachenko, Viktoria Melnyk, and Dmytro Naumenko
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
10 years ago, European Union representatives were still far from enthusiastic about Ukraine. Indeed, the Association Agreement signed by President Poroshenko in 2014 which came into force three years later[1], although far-reaching, lacked a clear political objective[2]. Russia's massive invasion of Ukraine has considerably accelerated the relaunch of the enlargement policy. Indeed, after Ukraine applied for membership on the fourth day after the Russian invasion, the Union took a positive decision with extraordinary speed and granted Ukraine candidate status in June 2022. On 14 February 2023, the European Council gave the green light to the opening of accession negotiations with Ukraine which started on 25 June 2024. The situation was unprecedented, and the EU seems to have accepted the geopolitical challenges and responded quickly. For Ukraine, approaching the gates of the European Union is a concrete expression of the will of the people who defended the European path during the Revolution of Dignity – otherwise known as EuroMaïdan, in 2014, and which is defending European values on the front line. European integration is proving to be a matter of national security for Ukraine, since from 2019, "the European identity of the Ukrainian people and the irreversibility of Ukraine's European and Euro-Atlantic path" are enshrined in the Constitution of Ukraine, following amendments made on the basis of the "strategic path of the State to acquire full membership of the European Union and NATO". Prior to this, Ukraine's National Security Law of June 2018 had already defined ‘Ukraine's integration into the European political, economic, security and legal space and membership of the European Union’ as one of the State's fundamental national interests. And so, Ukraine has already started working towards its rapprochement with the EU with the implementation of this text. Given its scale and ambition, the lessons learned from Ukraine's implementation of the association agreement can help to effectively organise the accession negotiation process.
Topic:
NATO, Reform, European Union, Russia-Ukraine War, and Enlargement
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

292. General elections 26 October in Georgia: a referendum on Europe?

Author:
Elise Bernard and Vincent Godbillon
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The general elections in Georgia on 26 October will clearly determine the autocratic or democratic future of the country. President Salome Zourabichvili[1] considers these elections to be a referendum for a “European, democratic, independent Georgia, or a Georgia led by an authoritarian, isolated Russia”. Meanwhile, Georgian Dream, which holds a small majority in the Assembly and presents itself as ‘social-democratic’, is increasingly seen as Russia's Trojan horse[2]. Led by Bidzina Ivanishvili[3], it appears to be implementing a strategy of systematically blocking Georgia's accession to the European Union, despite its supposedly favourable label. The prospect of these elections appears to have accelerated this methodical undermining, especially since Georgia was granted candidate country status by the European Council in December 2023. On 9 October, at the start of the new legislature, the European Parliament adopted, a resolution by 495 votes, calling on the European Union and its Member States to hold to account and impose personal sanctions on all those responsible for undermining democracy in Georgia[4], including Bidzina Ivanishvili. The European Union has already frozen 30 million € of the European Peace Facility.
Topic:
Elections, European Union, Referendum, and Foreign Influence
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Georgia

293. The European Union between the United States and China: should we choose between equidistance and following?

Author:
Philippe Etienne
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The competition between the world's two major powers structures all international relations and influences the choices made by all other countries. The latter fear the consequences of tensions between the two giants and, in the main, want to avoid having to choose. But the problem is not the same everywhere. To put it simply, China benefits in the "global South" from a certain hostility towards the West, while the United States can play on the fear aroused by the emergence of Chinese power, which no longer hesitates to resort to power relations, especially in Eastern Asia[1]. Against this backdrop, Europe is in a delicate situation. It must contend with its assimilation to the United States as being part of the “West” which is increasingly rejected. Although it shares much with its American ally, particularly the values of democracy and security arrangements, it does not always have the same interests as the United States and must preserve its room for manoeuvre if it is not to be dragged into decisions in which it has no part. Before examining how the European Union is facing up to this challenge, and how it should behave in the future, the driving forces and prospects of the Sino-American rivalry require exploration.
Topic:
International Relations, Globalization, European Union, Global South, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

294. Europe's defence against Russia

Author:
Elina Valtonen
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The large-scale offensive launched by Russia against Ukraine on 24 February 2022 marked a real turning point in the history of Europe. It radically altered the European security order, and there will probably be no turning back. The cooperative, treaty-based security order has been transformed into a system based on a balance of power, deterrence and containment[1]. By waging a brutal and illegal war against Ukraine, Russia's objectives have not changed. Its actions demonstrate total disdain for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of an independent neighbouring state. This Russian aggression, in flagrant violation of international law and the United Nations Charter, demonstrates Russia's determination to undermine the foundations of the European security order. There is nothing to suggest that, in the area of our common security, Russia will resume respect for existing treaties and commitments. It is becoming increasingly isolated from the international community. Its recent hybrid operation to redirect foreign nationals to Finland's eastern border is further evidence of this trend. Russia is and will remain on the doorstep of the European Union. It is essential that, on the international stage, the European Union continues to act resolutely and in a spirit of unity to stem Russian aggression, that it prepares for the future and that it invests in defence.
Topic:
Defense Policy, European Union, Deterrence, Regional Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

295. Cyprus: 20 years of membership of the European Union, between singularities and a theatre of geopolitical oppositions.

Author:
Maria-Christina Sotiropoulou
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Cyprus' history has been marked by a succession of foreign dominations that have shaped its complex identity and internal dynamics. Occupied by the Ottoman Empire in 1571, the island was subjected to the so-called Millet system for three centuries. During this period, Cypriot society was structured around distinct communities, mainly Greek and Turkish Cypriots, who coexisted under Ottoman rule. In 1878, Cyprus came under British administration, ushering in an era of modernization and growing nationalist tensions. Enosis, the plan for a union with Greece, supported by a large part of the Cypriot population, did not please the United Kingdom, which opposed it first directly as a colonial power, and then indirectly by supporting the Turkish Taksim plan for a division of the island. Indeed, in the aftermath of the Second World War, nationalist aspirations led to the independence of Cyprus in 1960, but this did not bring the hoped-for stability. Inter-communal conflicts between Greek and Turkish Cypriots worsened, exacerbated by external interference. The situation reached a point of no return with the military intervention, “Attila” in the summer of 1974, whose fiftieth anniversary deserves particular attention in view of the challenges facing the European Union. Justified by Ankara as a response to a Greek-backed coup d'état aimed at annexing the island, this invasion led to the division of Cyprus in two distinct parts and the displacement of large swathes of the population: the independent south, populated mainly by Greek Cypriots, and the Turkish-controlled north, the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus in 1983 which has only ever been recognized only by Türkiye.
Topic:
History, European Union, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Europe and Cyprus

296. What to take away from the European law on artificial intelligence

Author:
Thaima Samman and Benjamin De Vanssay
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
On top of all these initiatives and legislations, the European Commission has proposed two directives to the regulation on Artificial Intelligence (“Artificial Intelligence Act”, hereafter AI Act) is a landmark piece of EU legislation in the field of AI. One of its primary aims is to regulate the use of this technology in a number of areas based on a risk-based approach. In that respect, the AI Act sets gradual obligations for the different parties involved in the AI value chain depending on the level of risk that the use of AI raises in concrete use cases. The AI Act should therefore be viewed as a targeted intervention, and not a cross-cutting legislation like the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). The AI Act was adopted by EU co-legislators in May 2024 and will enter into force 20 days after its publication in the Official Journal of the European Union on July 12. It will apply from August 2, 2026. Meanwhile, the Commission has launched the AI Pact, a voluntary initiative inviting AI providers to comply with the key obligations of the AI Act in advance of its entry into force.
Topic:
Law, European Union, Artificial Intelligence, Value Chains, and European Commission
Political Geography:
Europe

297. European agriculture and Ukrainian agriculture complement each other

Author:
Alan Hervé
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Agriculture has long been the richest, most diversified and most innovative of Ukraine's economic and social activities. Since Russia launched its aggression against Ukraine in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea, it has also become the most essential for the country and the one that raises the most questions in its relations with the European Union, which it intends to join as soon as possible. Many accuse Ukraine of unfair competition: on wheat, which is seriously disrupting Poland's agrarian economy; on poultry meat, which is said to be a threat to French production; on sugar and, increasingly, on organic products. Beyond the particular circumstances we are currently experiencing, Ukraine could occupy a place of choice within an enlarged Union. Thanks to its high-performance agriculture, it could help to strengthen the Union's role in meeting the food needs of deficit countries, at a time when, without Ukraine, the European Union is losing market share all over the world, particularly to the growing competition from Russia. Ukraine's competitiveness should not be an obstacle to fruitful cooperation, if the accession negotiations agree to include all the key issues of climate change, ecological diversity and the aspiration of a majority of rural people to contribute to solving these problems. This paper outlines the issues at stake and the solutions we need to analyse together in order to take action, and thus to set a new and determined course for a Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) that has lost its way.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, European Union, Innovation, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

298. A push to the right, but the outgoing majority coalition is expected to be renewed

Author:
Pascale Joannin
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The European elections were held from 6 to 9 June in the 27 Member States of the European Union. Turnout was higher than in 2019, demonstrating that people feel more concerned by European issues.
Topic:
Elections, European Union, Democracy, and Citizenship
Political Geography:
Europe

299. Being European (free, modern and independent): a view from Central and Eastern Europe

Author:
Nathalie de Kaniv
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The philosophy and culture of the Enlightenment shaped the mental map of Europe, drawing a distinction between civilization and barbarism. The latter is now rising again, and contemporary geopolitics, turned upside down by the Russian war and the scale of aggression in the Middle East, is bringing the clash of civilizations back into focus. The war against the West, the anti-Western narrative, the confrontation between the free world and authoritarian regimes nostalgic for distant empires, the desire to create grey zones, barriers to the spread of values that are uncomfortable, even threatening, for hostile centralized systems, are challenging Europe. Authoritarianism, the aspiration to infinite power, corruption rooted in state governance, the use of repression against all opposition, the manipulation of international law and interference go hand in hand with militaristic slogans that promote the erasure of certain states from the world map, and illustrate the mutation of systems towards new forms of power. Clinging to undivided power, the designation of a common enemy fosters the attraction of war and murder. So, what is this West that some say they are fighting or want to do away with? What choices have those who fervently resist this threat made? What does it mean to be European, which has become a "raison d'être" in countries threatened by the Kremlin? Now is the time to take a closer look at the contribution of these states resisting the threat to our perception of what it means to be European. What does it mean to be European in Central and Eastern Europe[1], which has remained European despite the Iron Curtain? Far from seeking an exhaustive answer to this complex question, our aim is to examine some of the notions that permeate the European idea in Central and Eastern Europe.
Topic:
European Union, Democracy, Geopolitics, and Citizenship
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Europe

300. Energy Transition in the Eastern Mediterranean: Turning the East Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF) into a Regional Opportunity

Author:
Ioannis N. Grigoriadis and Deniz Çetin
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
This paper advocates a holistic approach transcending traditional energy security concepts, including a shift towards renewables, establishing regional energy markets, and focusing on cooperation rather than competition for long-term sustainability and socioeconomic development. The Eastern Mediterranean, identified as a hotspot of climate change is characterized by unsustainable energy practices, driven by high energy demand, low efficiency, and reliance on fossil fuels, which contributes to environmental and economic challenges. There is a need for the Eastern Mediterranean to transition to green energy, as a solution to energy problems and climate change risks. The European Union can play a key role in supporting this transition, aligning with the goals set on the European Green Deal and fostering cooperation with and among the Mediterranean states. The potential role of the East Mediterranean Gas Forum in regional energy cooperation is crucial. Expanding its scope beyond natural gas to renewable energy should emerge as a key priority.
Topic:
European Union, Renewable Energy, Regional Economy, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Eastern Mediterranean