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Begin New Search Topic European Central Bank Publication Year within 1 Year

1. Lessons for the European Central Bank from the 2021–23 Inflationary Episode

Author:
Pablo Hernández de Cos
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Since mid-2021, the euro area economy has gone through several shocks, leading to the highest inflation since the creation of the European Monetary Union. A forceful and persistent response from the European Central Bank, grounded in the monetary policy framework it agreed in 2021 ahead of the inflationary episode, has succeeded in bringing inflation down and delivering on the central bank’s price stability mandate. The framework will be reviewed in 2025, and it might conclude that there is no need for a drastic change. Nevertheless, this assessment should be compatible with identifying some areas for improvement. In particular, the 2021 review was primarily focused on the effective lower bound. The recent inflationary episode, together with high ongoing uncertainty, indicate that the articulation of monetary policy strategy frameworks should be robust to very different scenarios. Likely persistence of high levels of uncertainty over the next few years will also require an emphasis on flexibility to adapt to the magnitude, origin, and persistence of shocks. Unconditional forward guidance should be avoided. In addition, there might be a need to more clearly distinguish in the future, when possible, between quantitative easing for market functioning versus monetary stimulus, which could incentivize a careful assessment of the amount, duration, and structure of any asset purchase program. Communication also needs to be improved in relation to the level of uncertainty and its consequences for monetary policymaking with, for instance, greater use of scenarios and sensitivity analyses as appropriate. Improving forecasting/modeling tools, in particular when dealing with large supply shocks, and understanding the roles of different measures of inflation expectations should also be priorities.
Topic:
Monetary Policy, Inflation, and European Central Bank
Political Geography:
Europe

2. The European Central Bank’s operational framework and what it is missing

Author:
Giulia Gotti and Francesco Papadia
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
In March 2024, the European Central Bank published the results of a review of its operational framework. After discussing how the ECB operational framework has changed since the Great Financial Crisis, we provide an assessment of the review, which we deem as premature and highlight some gaps it has not resolved. First, the choice of a hybrid system is attractive, but needs a precise specification. Second, the review did not specify the timing of the introduction of structural long-term refinancing operations and a structural portfolio of securities. We find that these measures should be implemented when the level of excess liquidity reaches between €1.3 trillion and €2 trillion, projected between mid-2026 and late 2027. Finally, as the introduction of a digital euro could impact bank liquidity, it is crucial to design a framework that can flexibly increase the supply of central bank liquidity.
Topic:
Monetary Policy, Governance, European Union, Macroeconomics, Fiscal Policy, European Central Bank, and Banking
Political Geography:
Europe

3. What can central banks do to take the Paris Agreement seriously?

Author:
Dirk Schoenmaker and Hesse McKechnie
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Since the Paris Agreement on climate change was signed in 2015, its 195 signatories have seen financial instability resulting from the climate transition increase by approximately one third, in the context of still-increasing global emissions. In the European Union, emissions have fallen but banks have not fully internalised the costs of transitioning to net-zero. Banks continue to finance the expansion of the fossil-fuel industry. At the systemic level, this is trading a pretence of financial stability now for a more disorderly transition scenario with greater financial instability later. Central banks are increasingly using microprudential supervisory tools to address climate-related financial risks. These tools include reviewing banks’ risk-management processes and giving warnings over shortcomings in banks’ risk models. This approach is helpful, but has so far failed to address the build-up of climate-transition-related imbalances in the financial system. This situation echoes the run-up to the 2007-2008 global financial crisis, when supervisors were busy reviewing the implementation of the latest Basel risk models by individual banks, while failing to see increased imbalances in the financial system caused by rising housing prices. This Policy Brief proposes that central banks should take a macro approach to managing system-wide risks stemming from the climate transition. It is necessary to treat climate as an endogenous, and in many jurisdictions legally-mandated, transition, rather than an exogenous risk. The policy aim for central banks, in their macroprudential supervision capacity, should be to minimise financial instability during that transition. This Policy Brief argues that, all other things being equal, the steadiest path towards net-zero offers the greatest amount of financial stability. Current proposals to impose systemic risk buffers for climaterelated concentration risk may fail to provide such a steady reduction. A guided transition is recommended for banks that have been reluctant to hive off profitable loans to high-emitting companies. A requirement for the financial sector to reduce financed emissions by four percentage points annually from 2025 to 2050 would deliver net-zero with the least amount of financial instability.
Topic:
Climate Change, Monetary Policy, European Central Bank, Paris Agreement, Banking, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Europe