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61. Jordan: Public Opinion Report 2024

Author:
Arab Barometer
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Arab Barometer’s Wave VIII survey captures public opinion in Jordan at a critical time. As the COVID-era restrictions and changes receded, many of the challenges Jordan had been facing over the previous decade returned to the fore. From the early 2010s until Arab Barometer’s 2022 survey, there had been consistent declines in views of government and economic challenges continued to mount. However, in the weeks before the planned survey, the events of October 7, 2023 shook the region, but particularly Jordan as a country bordering Israel. Israel’s subsequent military campaign in Gaza deeply affected Jordanian public opinion, particularly given the large number of Jordanians of Palestinian descent. Results from the survey strongly suggest that the impact from the war in Gaza not only shaped views of international actors, but also influenced perceptions of domestic issues in Jordan. In effect, it is difficult to overstate the importance of this issue for Jordanian public opinion or to accurately understand it separately from the situation in Gaza.
Topic:
International Relations, Corruption, Environment, Migration, Public Opinion, Democracy, Economy, Survey, Freedom, Gender, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East and Jordan

62. Lebanon: Public Opinion Report 2024

Author:
Arab Barometer
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Lebanon continues to struggle with the long shadow of the 2019 financial collapse, made even worse by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and the August 2020 Beirut port explosion. In 2022, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reached a Staff-Level Agreement (SLA) with Lebanese authorities which would provide the equivalent of three billion USD in aid conditional on significant political reforms (source). Two years later political maneuvering and infighting has successfully prevented the implementation of any of the required political reforms and none of the multi-billion-dollar aid has been released. The citizens of Lebanon are suffering. Most citizens say they struggle to cover their monthly expenses, there has been a sharp increase in food insecurity, and all citizens, regardless of income, suffer near daily electricity outages. Lebanese citizens lay the blame for the pervasive socio-economic ills at the feet of their government. No one has confidence in the government’s ability to solve the country’s problems. The long-term crisis has resulted in increasing apathy towards the political system, especially among the less economically stable. Citizens are increasingly likely to say the type of government the country has does not matter for people like them.
Topic:
Corruption, Environment, Gender Issues, Migration, Public Opinion, Democracy, Economy, Discrimination, Survey, and Political System
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

63. Iraq Public Opinion Report 2024

Author:
Arab Barometer
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
If uncertainty was the key theme reverberating through Arab Barometer’s 2022 seventh wave findings in Iraq, emergent stability—however slight—is the main one echoing its eighth wave, at least with respect to domestic politics. To be sure, the country still faces many challenges, and protests over corruption, elections, women’s rights, climate change-induced power outages, among other issues have continued to episodically arise. But public sentiment appears to be responding to the efforts of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al-Sudani’s government, which has begun to tackle some of the country’s most pressing issues. For Iraqi citizens, corruption remains the biggest challenge facing the country, though there is a considerable increase in the share of citizens who suggest that the government is tackling the issue. Economic grievances, chief among which are a lack of jobs, also continue to preoccupy citizens. More than half of all Iraqis are confronting food insecurity, and sizable numbers are adapting negative coping strategies to access food. Even more pressing than the affordability of food is the affordability and availability of housing. Still, a small but rising share of citizens positively assess the government’s efforts to create jobs and curb inflation. So, despite ongoing challenges, optimism about the future of the economy is on the rise, signifying the reversal of an otherwise downward trend that had been effect since 2013.
Topic:
International Relations, Corruption, Environment, Gender Issues, Public Opinion, Democracy, Economy, and Survey
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

64. An energy and sustainability road map for the Middle East

Author:
Ariel Ezrahi
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Global warming is impacting the Middle East at more than twice the global average. In a region already beset by territorial and religious conflicts, this is alarming: Beyond the immediate human suffering from war, the region’s people face severe consequences of global warming. While it is uncertain if humanity can entirely avert this crisis, it is clear that mitigation and adaptation measures are essential to address its worst effects. Climate change respects no borders; for instance, nature does not distinguish between Areas A, B, and C in the West Bank, nor does it differentiate between the rising sea levels along the shores of Tel Aviv and Beirut. Cross-border cooperation will be critical to implementing effective mitigation and adaptation measures. As temperatures rise and extreme weather events, such as intense but infrequent rainfall, become more common, countries in the region must work together to optimize and expand sustainable energy and water resources. This report was partially written prior to the October 7, 2023, attack by Hamas on Israel, which triggered the ongoing Gaza war. Beyond the physical reconstruction required in Israel and the Gaza Strip, the traumas on both sides of the border could take decades to heal. Now, with the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, the region has a rare opportunity for rebuilding and peace. On the Israeli side, it is clear that new Israeli leadership will be critical for rebuilding and unifying the country, as well as for mending relations with the Palestinians and the wider region. Saudi Arabia has indicated it would need to see a clear path for an independent Palestinian state for normalization of its relationship with Israel to proceed. Other regional powers, such as the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain, have cooled relations with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government. For there to be a realistic possibility of building on the Abraham Accords—or even taking small steps to increase cooperation in the region—a “New Middle Eastern Order” will need to be established. A comprehensive new US plan could shape this new order. The United States, seen by some in the region as disengaging, now has an opportunity to counter that perception by helping to establish a “New Middle Eastern Order” based on a tangible plan for strong intra-regional energy and climate-related cooperation, alongside efforts to facilitate a permanent solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. For example, the energy and climate component could form a cornerstone of the US strategy for the region. The alternative is a region increasingly mired in conflict due to dwindling resources in the face of a worsening climate crisis and a deepening of existing conflicts fueled by a destructive Iranian agenda. Furthermore, this alternative risks exacerbating global conflict-driven emissions and environmental disasters, as seen recently with the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. Although tangible cooperation on energy- and climate-related issues has so far been limited, this can—and indeed must—change. The purpose of this piece is to highlight some specific areas where cooperation can be undertaken and advanced under the task force platform outlined below.1
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Markets, Governance, Sustainability, and Energy
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Gulf Nations

65. What African producers of critical minerals can learn from Indonesia’s experience

Author:
Bradford Simmons
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
With its success in nickel production, Indonesia has become a model for those seeking to harness “resource nationalism” for domestic benefit. Substantial foreign investment, particularly from China, has been a key variable for Indonesia to become a globally relevant industrial center for nickel processing. While there are insightful lessons that policymakers from mineral-resource-rich African countries can learn from Indonesia, there must be caution in implementing some of Indonesia’s policies, especially export bans as they have had mixed results and depend heavily on external factors. Africa holds a third of the world’s mineral reserves, including critical minerals essential to the green energy transition. Yet, the continent remains underexplored, underdeveloped, and underfunded, receiving just 8–10% of global exploration and investment. Global demand for minerals like copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium is expected to generate $16 trillion over the next 25 years, with sub-Saharan Africa potentially capturing $2 trillion. However, to realize this potential, Africa must shift from raw extraction to value-added processing. Developing local processing industries would boost economic diversification, job creation, tax revenues, and technological advancements while reducing dependency on raw-material exports. To achieve this, African governments must prioritize coherent, forward-looking policies that emphasize value creation. Commissioning technoeconomic studies to identify key supply chain opportunities will help guide investments. Establishing Special Economic Zones for critical minerals can attract international investors and foster industrial hubs. Leveraging the African Continental Free Trade Area to create robust commodity markets would position Africa as a competitive player. Additionally, streamlining regulatory processes, supporting carbon-free power projects, and advancing infrastructure investments through global initiatives such as the US PGI and EU Global Gateway can facilitate critical mineral processing and transport networks. Export bans, though well-intentioned, often backfire. Historically, they have reduced exports, weakened global trade positions, and worsened infrastructure challenges in energy, transportation, and logistics. Without effective governance and political stability, such policies risk stalling economic growth rather than stimulating it. By focusing on industrial infrastructure, value-added processing, and policies that promote long-term diversification, African countries can move beyond the limitations of raw extraction. With transparent governance and strategic investments, the continent can transform its mineral wealth into a driver of sustainable economic development.
Topic:
Environment, Energy Transition, Critical Minerals, and International Markets
Political Geography:
Africa, Indonesia, Southeast Asia, and Indo-Pacific

66. A European circular single market for economic security and competitiveness

Author:
Heather Grabbe and Luca Léry Moffat
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
If the European Union is to achieve a sustainable net-zero economy, resources need to be used much more efficiently. Extraction from nature and processing of materials are the principal causes of biodiversity loss and are also major sources of pollution, water stress and greenhouse gas emissions. Resources are used inefficiently currently because market and government failures create a nexus of disincentives and barriers to firms and individuals, hindering them in making resource-efficient choices. The most prominent failure is the artificial cheapness of raw materials because the environmental and human costs of extraction are not including in their prices. A powerful way to improve resource efficiency is to increase circularity, so that fewer resources are used to meet the same level of human need. This can be done by extending the duration of use and reuse of materials, and by reducing resource demand from the start by designing products and systems for optimal efficiency. A circular single market would allow faster de-risking from toxic dependencies and economic coercion by authoritarian regimes. It would increase resilience in the context of fragile supply chains while reducing instability from volatile commodity prices. Firm competitiveness would also be enhanced, given that European companies operate on a continent that is poor in energy and natural resources, and are thus very exposed to future scarcity of resources when climate impacts will make water and land scarcer. If firms were to optimise production and consumption systems for efficiency now, they would be ahead of the curve. To develop the circular economy further, the EU will need to spur investment. Public policy that sets common standards and a predictable regulatory framework would accelerate the development of markets for inputs such as recyclates and services such as repair, both in the EU and in trade partners. The EU has established a legislative framework for the circular economy but it needs scaling up in the forthcoming Circular Economy Act.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Markets, European Union, Economic Security, and Resources
Political Geography:
Europe

67. Extra time for deforestation: lessons for future EU environmental legislation

Author:
Heather Grabbe and Luca Léry Moffat
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Forests are essential to regulating the climate, absorbing greenhouse gases and providing fresh water and habitats for biodiversity and indigenous peoples. If deforestation continues at current rates, large parts of the planet will become uninhabitable. The European Union has only 5.5 percent of the world’s population, but its demand drives 15 percent of the global forest destruction linked to trade. Therefore, the EU has introduced a law – the regulation on deforestation-free products, or deforestation regulation – to outlaw from its market products linked to deforestation. The regulation has triggered protest about its impact on trade partners, leading the European Commission to propose at short notice a delay in its implementation. However, the objectives of the regulation remain valid and important. Moreover, a large majority of EU consumers want to avoid buying products that result from deforestation and find it frustratingly difficult to find information on whether products are deforestation-free. Economic actors in most of the affected sectors support the objectives of the regulation, even though they criticise the way it has been implemented. To avoid this delay having a chilling effect on other green measures in future, the EU should learn lessons from this experience. The European Commission needs to develop a consistent and effective strategy for managing the external impact of the EU’s green policy agenda, with better diplomacy towards trade partners and specific financial assistance to help the poorer countries with compliance and the transition to more sustainable production. This Policy Brief sets out why the deforestation regulation has the right objectives but needed better design and preparation for implementation. In particular, the EU needs to provide more flanking support for developing countries to ease their transitions and improve forest protection. Economic actors along the whole of supply chains need more consultation during the design stage, and the Commission needs to provide clearer guidance by sector and a well-functioning system for compliance.
Topic:
Environment, Governance, European Union, Deforestation, Implementation, and Forests
Political Geography:
Europe