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101. Artillery in Present and Future High-Intensity Operations

Author:
Elio Calcagno, Bryan Clark, Sam Cranny-Evans, Alessandro Marrone, Nicolò Murgia, and Eugenio Po
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The Ukraine war has highlighted among NATO allies the importance of planning for protracted, large-scale, and high-intensity conflicts. In this context, artillery capabilities have regained significance, with a clear emphasis on survivability, quality, quantity, range, but also on adequate munition stocks and production capacity. However, successful integration into a wider array of capabilities (including long range precision fires) and advanced Intelligence Surveillance Target Acquisition and Reconnaissance (ISTAR) capabilities are crucial for an effective artillery force. Meanwhile, in the maritime domain, recent events in the Red Sea have shown how naval artillery is gaining a prominent role as a cost-effective solution to defence from drone and swarming threats.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Procurement, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, United Kingdom, Ukraine, France, Italy, and United States of America

102. US-Germany Missile Agreement: Deterrence or Escalation?

Author:
Polina Sinovets
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
This October was marked by a statement by the Head of the German Foreign Service Intelligence, Bruno Kahl, who claimed that by the end of this decade at the latest, Russian troops could “carry out an attack” against NATO.[1] The defence chief could hardly be accused of hyperbole. His comments took place at the time of Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine, the Kremlin’s growing nuclear blackmail of the West and regular threats to use some measures[2] against any NATO country whose military deployments might potentially affect Russian missiles’ striking capabilities. Against this backdrop and with the new US administration coming to power in 2025 under the slogan of turning all its attention to China, Europe will have to care much more about its defence and security than before 2022. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine revealed the weak spots of the European NATO pillar in terms of arms production, military budgeting and general preparedness for a large-scale war in European territory, which turns out to be critical for the security of the continent.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Deterrence, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Germany, and United States of America

103. Democracy and the ‘citizen-soldier’ military: The case of Kosovo and Israel

Author:
Ronen Itsik
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The intention of Kosovo’s government to establish a ‘citizen-soldier’ military creates an opportunity to do the ‘right thing from the beginning’—the current comparative study elaborates on the steps that have to be taken in order to establish a military in a young and small democratic state, with a strong normative base, that will provide confidence in the defence system alongside constructive socialisation. The structure of constitutional analysis serves as a base for in-depth discussion concerning the military service model in democratic states. The analysis is followed by an elaboration on the ‘citizen-soldier’ military model in the context of cultural aspects and the connection to the constitutional base, combined with an analysis of Israel’s and Kosovo’s social–cultural features, security challenges, and geo-strategic situations, similarities and opportunities regarding implementation of a military model. The study reveals that in democratic states, the ‘citizen-soldier’ model has to be anchored in the culture and in the constitution in order to prevent social conflicts concerning rights and duties, establishing a constructive social platform that empowers national resilience alongside defensive abilities. Kosovo’s success in implementing a ‘citizen-soldier’ model is built on the adoption of positive ways of social integration using Israel’s experience while minimising its weaknesses: the existence of constitutional definitions that will balance civilians’ rights and duties in the context of military duty, harnessing the education system as a socialisation agent, and establishment of a reserve military force that will be anchored in national duty, in the security view and the social view.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Armed Forces, Democracy, and Military
Political Geography:
Israel and Kosovo

104. Role of the private sector within Latvia’s strategic defence documents: Dimensions of psychological resilience and strategic communication

Author:
Lita Juberte Krūmiņa
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The comprehensive defence framework introduced in 2019 in Latvia has the potential to accelerate the implementation of national defence priorities, thus strengthening Latvia as one of NATO’s external border states. In a time of geopolitical turbulence and increasing hybrid threats, a whole-of-society approach is required and work in ever-new directions. As dimensions of psychological resilience and strategic communication are becoming an important part of the defence studies debate, the study focuses on the role of the private sector within Latvia’s strategic defence documents and aims to investigate where these dimensions are situated and how they have evolved in the strategic landscape. To study the role and evolution of the private sector within Latvia’s strategic defence documents, quantitative content analysis and qualitative text analysis were used for in-depth analysis of the documents. The study finds that the role of the private sector in the strategic defence documents has generally increased over the years and there has not been a significant change regarding private sector involvement in dimensions of psychological resilience and strategic communication. The long-term pattern indicates that dimensions of psychological resilience and strategic communication appear rare in strategic documents, suggesting that the private sector is not seen as a significant actor in achieving defence goals. Meanwhile, in more practical dimensions,an upward trend towards strengthening ties and sharing responsibilities is identified. The study therefore opens up a discussion regarding the need for a more institutionalised framework for psychological and strategic communication dimensions in order to achieve the strategic goals of comprehensive defence.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, Private Sector, Resilience, and Strategic Communication
Political Geography:
Europe and Latvia

105. Remote work in the Finnish Defence Forces: Employees’ experiences of changes in organisational culture

Author:
Tiina Kähkönen
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
This paper investigated what changes took place in the organisational culture of the Finnish Defence Forces during the COVID-19 pandemic, and also afterwards when remote work has remained permanently available to staff. A total of 468 employees of the Finnish Defence Forces participated in the study by reporting their experiences of changes in organisational culture. In the analysis of qualitative data, the Gioia methodology, which classifies the data into categories and themes, was used. Remote work creates challenges for leadership, and more equality, changed management competence, and remote work management skills were expected from management. However, it would seem that the organisational culture in the Finnish Defence Forces has developed in such a way that trust within the organisation is even stronger than before. Remote work has developed the personnel’s skills in managing digital tools as well as the employer image of the Finnish Defence Forces in the eyes of their personnel. This is the first study to map employees’ experiences of remote work from the perspective of changes in organisational culture in the Finnish Defence Forces. The research provides novel information that can be utilised in developing the operations and management of organisations. The Finnish Defence Forces have taken significant steps towards a modern work community. There are still some challenges to be solved in terms of how to improve leadership of remote work. A particularly important resource in resilience to change is the trust that is manifested in the organisational culture of the Finnish Defence Forces.
Topic:
Defense Policy, COVID-19, Remote Work, and Organizational Culture
Political Geography:
Europe and Finland

106. The Coming Conflict with Hezbollah

Author:
Seth G. Jones, Daniel Byman, Alexander Palmer, and Riley McCabe
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Although the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza has captured the world’s attention, there is a serious risk of war between Israel and Hezbollah, according to a new assessment by CSIS. Since October 7, 2023, there have been over 4,400 rocket, missile, and other stand-off attacks by Israel and Hezbollah combined. Hezbollah has also repeatedly violated UN Security Council Resolution 1701 by deploying forces and firing anti-tank guided missiles and other stand-off weapons against Israel from the zone between the Blue Line and the Litani River, according to CSIS geolocation analysis. The United States needs to increase its diplomatic engagement to prevent what could become a much wider and more violent war in the Middle East.
Topic:
Defense Policy, International Security, Counter-terrorism, Geopolitics, Transnational Actors, Hezbollah, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

107. Defense Priorities in the Open-Source AI Debate

Author:
Masao Dahlgren
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
A spirited debate is taking place over the regulation of open foundation models—artificial intelligence models whose underlying architectures and parameters are made public and can be inspected, modified, and run by end users. Proposed limits on releasing open foundation models may have significant defense industrial impacts. If model training is a form of defense production, these impacts deserve further scrutiny. Preliminary evidence suggests that an open foundation model ecosystem could benefit the U.S. Department of Defense’s supplier diversity, sustainment, cybersecurity, and innovation priorities. Follow-on analyses should quantify impacts on acquisition cost and supply chain security.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Regulation, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

108. Defence of Baltic States, Poland Runs into Ottawa Treaty on Mines

Author:
Anna Maria Dyner and Stefania Kolarz
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
By deciding to build a defence line on the border with Russia and declaring the possibility of using anti-personnel mines, representatives of the Estonian parliament have opened the debate on possible withdrawal from the 1997 Ottawa Treaty on anti-personnel mines. This step may be necessary for the Baltic States to protect their territories from aggression, as they are faced with a lack of operational depth. However, for other states, including Poland, which have other power-projection capabilities, it is a last resort.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Landmines, and Ottawa Treaty
Political Geography:
Russia, Poland, Estonia, and Baltic States

109. Europe's defence against Russia

Author:
Elina Valtonen
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The large-scale offensive launched by Russia against Ukraine on 24 February 2022 marked a real turning point in the history of Europe. It radically altered the European security order, and there will probably be no turning back. The cooperative, treaty-based security order has been transformed into a system based on a balance of power, deterrence and containment[1]. By waging a brutal and illegal war against Ukraine, Russia's objectives have not changed. Its actions demonstrate total disdain for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of an independent neighbouring state. This Russian aggression, in flagrant violation of international law and the United Nations Charter, demonstrates Russia's determination to undermine the foundations of the European security order. There is nothing to suggest that, in the area of our common security, Russia will resume respect for existing treaties and commitments. It is becoming increasingly isolated from the international community. Its recent hybrid operation to redirect foreign nationals to Finland's eastern border is further evidence of this trend. Russia is and will remain on the doorstep of the European Union. It is essential that, on the international stage, the European Union continues to act resolutely and in a spirit of unity to stem Russian aggression, that it prepares for the future and that it invests in defence.
Topic:
Defense Policy, European Union, Deterrence, Regional Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

110. A Call to Action: Lessons from Ukraine for the Future Force

Author:
John A. Nagl and Katie Crombe
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
This book explores the changing character of war through the lens of the Russia-Ukraine War. The authors analyze the conflict’s history, each side’s warfighting functions, the role of multidomain operations, and more. The radical changes in the character of war suggest the United States is at a strategic inflection point. The authors draw lessons from both the Ukrainians and the Russians to suggest improvements for the United States. Advances in drone technology, cyber warfare, and electromagnetic warfare pose new technological vulnerabilities and possibilities. In addition, the war has highlighted the roles of allies in deterrence and training as well as how leadership styles within the military—specifically, in the implementation of mission command—can be a decisive factor. As the Russia-Ukraine War has demonstrated, modern conflict touches a plethora of domains; thus, having sufficient personnel who are ready to fill a variety of capacities will be critical in the future. Finally, the war has shown history and justice are critical aspects of going to war and achieving peace, so crafting a narrative and satisfying stakeholders will be necessary for establishing a stable world order. The Russia-Ukraine War foreshadows the challenges the United States will face in future conflict and highlights the keys to adapting to modern warfare.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Military, Allies, Russia-Ukraine War, Convergence, and Warfare
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine