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11. Perspectives for the War in Ukraine

Author:
Thomas Greminger
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
There is no doubt that the military aggression against Ukraine unleashed by President Putin on 24 February 2022 represents the most significant disruption of security and peace in Europe since the end of World War II. The war has far-reaching repercussions affecting practically every aspect of our lives and impacting far beyond the European continent. In this article, I will first briefly assess the situation on the battlefield. I will then offer a few scenarios for how the conflict could evolve in the coming months. Afterward I will mainly focus on what has been called “Plan B”-thinking in the expert community: What if the official narrative of both sides – a military victory – does not materialize? What if the parties, exhausted by a war of attrition, decide to return to the negotiation table – or the high-intensity warfare transitions to low-intensity conflict leading to a de facto cessation of hostilities? What could a negotiated or a de facto ceasefire look like? And what issues would have to be negotiated if – in the most optimistic scenario – the parties decide to proceed from a ceasefire to a conflict settlement process?
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

12. Bargaining for Justice: Ukraine, Gaza, and the Ethics of Conflict Termination

Author:
C. Anthony Pfaff
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
As wars in Ukraine and Gaza continue with little end in sight, the sense of urgency to determine how they should end is increasing, given how the wars could end. A just war aims to establish a better state of peace, but a better state of peace may not always be achievable, and even when it is achievable, it may not be good enough. When that is the case, actors must determine on what terms to settle, given what they think they can achieve based on relative capabilities and cost tolerances. The resulting “maximin” solution, a practical approach where actors maximize the minimum they can achieve, provides a range of solutions. But taking only these factors into account is not likely to produce an enduring or more perfect peace. To get to a “good enough” state of peace, justice concerns—in this case framed by the just-war tradition—play a role. By impacting what counts as costs and benefits and placing boundaries on what actors should accept independently of those costs and benefits, the just-war tradition can help actors construct more durable settlements. The experiences in Ukraine and Gaza further illustrate gaps in the just-war tradition, which this book also addresses.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Humanitarian Law (IHL), Russia-Ukraine War, Just War, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, Palestine, and Gaza

13. A Blue Economy in the Eastern Mediterranean: Climate, Society and Regional Prosperity

Author:
Hadas Gann-Perkal
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
This paper examines the differences between a blue economy and a maritime economy in the regional context of the Eastern Mediterranean. A blue economy is defined as one that improves human well-being by preserving environmental resources for future generations. Its environmental, climatic and social aspects are intertwined and interdependent. By contrast, a maritime economy is solely driven by profit motives. Two key understandings guide the discussion presented in this paper. The first is that the close connection, and even dependence of human welfare on healthy seas necessitates management of the marine environment so that it both supports economic prosperity and preserves the natural system needed for sustainable living. The second is that adopting the blue economy paradigm as an approach that inherently requires regional cooperation will enable wise implementation and full realization of blue economy advantages, perhaps even before each country fully and independently adopts the approach. The paper examines various blue economy sectors that lend themselves to implementation of a sustainable and regional blue economy paradigm, with a focus on ecotourism and nature conservation. It also proposes guiding principles and policy recommendations to promote the transition from a maritime economy to a regional blue economy. Adopting this blue economy approach bodes a promise of regional prosperity and resilience, as well as water, food and energy security in times of climate crisis and other environmental threats. It also offers hope as a framework for conflict resolution and regional peacebuilding.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Peacebuilding, Blue Economy, Energy Security, and Climate Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean