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201. Cities and Climate: The Future of the Future

Author:
Nicolas J. A. Buchoud
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
The present paper is intended to serve as a background document for the World Urban Forum that will take place in Cairo in November 2024 under the slogan, “Cities and Climate: The Future of the Future.” It is critical to learn from the historical foundations of contemporary urban imaginaries and trends. This essay explores some of these as they crystallized during the 1960s and early 1970s, alongside the emergence of planetary or “world systems” understanding. There is much to learn from the context and impact of futurologist studies produced decades ago, particularly those that looked to the then-distant year 2000. A better understanding of this history is useful to have in mind in the context of envisioning future urban policymaking options, a few of which which will be examined in light of recent events and trends.
Topic:
Climate Change, Cities, and Future
Political Geography:
Middle East

202. Green Infrastructure Development in Karabakh

Author:
Inara Yagubova and Samra Talishinskaya-Abbasova
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
I nfrastructure plays an essential role in addressing societal needs and climate change policies. The methods and materials used during construction can have an impact (positive and negative) on both climate change mitigation and adaptation as well as in engineering a more inclusive society. There is a noticeable shift towards cleaner and sustainable infrastructure worldwide, as countries aim to move closer to fulfilling their net-zero emissions pledges. To achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, an estimated $139 trillion investment in infrastructure will be needed worldwide. The global infrastructure business has enormous growth potential. By 2050, around 75 percent of infrastructure across the globe will be under construction. This growth is likely to be accompanied by a spike in the global green infrastructure market, which is predicted to reach €10 trillion by 2030. The fact that infrastructure accounts for 79 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions highlights the importance of investing in green infrastructure worldwide.
Topic:
Climate Change, Infrastructure, Carbon Emissions, and Mitigation
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Azerbaijan, South Caucasus, and Nagorno-Karabakh

203. Long Way Ahead: Applying the Sustainable Cities Implementation Framework in Azerbaijan

Author:
Anar Valiyev and Fidan Namazova
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
In the past 30 years, Azerbaijan has transformed from a majority rural society to a majority urban one. The urban population rate grew from 45 percent in 1993 to 57 percent in 2024. Of the total country’s population, around 24.3 percent is concentrated in the city of Baku. But the Greater Baku Area, which consists of the urbanized region encompassing the nearby cities of Sumgayit and Khirdalan (both of these are located, as is Baku, on the Absheron Peninsula), is estimated to host around 40 percent of country’s population—that is to say, around 4 million people. Ganja, the country’s second‑largest city, has a population of a little less than 400,000, making the urban primacy index in the country around 7 (unofficially, the number is closer to 10).
Topic:
Climate Change, Cities, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Azerbaijan, and South Caucasus

204. Urban Green Areas in Baku: Crafting a Sustainable and Climate-Resilient City Agenda

Author:
Tural Aliyev, Mauel Fischer, Janine Bollinger, and Alexandre Hedjazi
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
In the face of ongoing global environmental dynamics such as climate change, biodiversity loss, and natural resource depletion, one of the most significant challenges of the twenty‑first century is mitigating the negative externalities due to urbanization while adapting to the consequences of urban development. Beyond the increasing, ecological footprint of urban areas and the escalating demands for a diverse array of resources, land‑use practices significantly diminish the availability of areas essential for sustaining ecosystem services. This reduction not only impacts biodiversity but also limits nature’s capability to provide crucial services like clean air, water, and climate regulation—paradoxically, precisely in cities where their demand would be greatest. Many of these ecosystem services are directly linked to the natural environment in cities, such as green urban areas. Indeed, urban green areas (UGAs) are of high importance as they significantly contribute to vital ecosystem services (e.g., pollination through increased biodiversity), response options and thus resilience to environmental (climate) change (e.g., sponge cities), and human wellbeing, including direct impacts on our physical and mental health (e.g., nearby recreation).
Topic:
Climate Change, Urban, Cities, Sustainability, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Azerbaijan, South Caucasus, and Baku

205. Implementing Azerbaijan’s New Urban Agenda: The Case for Transformative Policymaking

Author:
Anna Soave
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
We live in a time of profound and rapid transformation. Trends and multifaceted challenges that have been gradually evolving in the past decade appear to be converging towards radical changes in the urban realm, driven by global geopolitical shifts, cultural dynamism, uneven socio‑economic progress, the disruption of labor markets reshaped by the digital revolution, and emerging technological and scientific advancements. All these are, to make matters more even complex, topped by the drive to “go green” due to the increasing evidence of our overuse of finite natural resources and the vulnerability of our ecosystem to climate crisis, and thus to our own wellbeing. Azerbaijan’s comprehensive “Strategic Road Maps,” approved in 2016, set the basis for the country’s aspirations towards the sustainability and competitiveness of its economic structure through the development of the non‑oil sector and its human capital. The more recent policy and reform framework, titled “Azerbaijan 2030: National Priorities for Socio‑Economic Development,” which was endorsed in 2021, spells out clean‑cut priorities for the country aimed at stimulating the growth of its economy, fostering a dynamic, inclusive, and socially‑just society, promoting the balanced development of the regions, encouraging innovation and creativity, guiding the return of internally displaced people (IDPs) to their areas of origin in the liberated territories, and promoting decarbonization.
Topic:
Climate Change, Geopolitics, Urban, Cities, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Azerbaijan, and South Caucasus

206. Global Dynamics in a Year of Domestic Contestations and Political Shifts

Author:
Karim El Aynaoui, Paola Magri, Samir Saran, Harsh V. Pant, and Vivek Mishra
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
2024 marked the largest election year in history, with millions of people across the world going to the polls to elect their representatives and leaders. However, in the Global North, Donald Trump’s decisive election victory in the United States threatens to undermine multilateral governance structures that are already under strain. In the Global South, emerging economies from the expanded BRICS group and beyond strive to speak with a single voice, and their actions continue to be shaped by national dynamics. How will domestic shifts impact international collaboration across the globe? Will we experience new trade wars? Will efforts to tackle climate change slow down? And how to restore hope and support a newfound impetus in multilateral governance? Seeking to answer these questions, the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI), the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) in India and the Policy Center for the New South (PCNS) in Morocco, are delighted to announce the launch of the 2nd Annual Trends Report, involving experts from the three think tanks.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Development, Science and Technology, Governance, Economy, Global South, Multilateralism, Donald Trump, Energy, Geoeconomics, and Digital Transition
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

207. An investment strategy to keep the European Green Deal on track

Author:
Jean Pisani-Ferry and Simone Tagliapietra
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Fostering investment in clean energy and transport systems is essential if the European Union is to achieve the 2030 climate goal of a 55 percent emissions reduction relative to 1990. However, getting to the required levels of investment during 2025-2030 is likely to be exceptionally difficult. Clean electricity generation and electricity transmission systems need to be expanded rapidly, while industrial decarbonisation must be boosted and the green transformation of buildings and transport accelerated sharply. But policymakers face growing constraints on the public sector’s ability to support the necessary investments. At EU level, potential obstacles include the end of the NextGenerationEU post-pandemic recovery instrument, the lack of a green carve-out in the reformed EU fiscal framework, the increasingly difficult trade-offs between decarbonisation, competitiveness and security, and the spreading false narratives on climate policy promoted by populist nationalist parties. The latter two challenges are set to be further exacerbated by the return of President Trump in the United States. The upshot is that Europe is not on track to reach its climate targets. It is at a juncture where political resistance to decarbonisation is mounting and where budgetary means to buy off consent are becoming scarce, at both EU level (because the main source of financing is drying up) and national level (because the fiscal rules leave little room for green investment). In this Policy Brief, we assess the investment needed to achieve the 2030 climate goal and climate neutrality by 2050, and discuss why current estimates might be either over- or underestimated. Second, we discuss the roles of the private and public sectors in making these investments happen. Third, we analyse the obstacles to reaching the desired investment levels during 2025-2030, especially for the public sector. Finally we propose measures to overcome or circumvent these obstacles. The business strand consists of innovations destined to ensuring credibility and the full mobilisation of savings. The public strand aims to maximise the firepower of limited fiscal resources.
Topic:
Climate Change, European Union, Investment, Green Deal, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe

208. Decarbonising for competitiveness: four ways to reduce European energy prices

Author:
Conall Heussaff
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Energy prices are higher in the European Union than in most other industrialised economies, presenting a fundamental competitiveness challenge. The price disparity stems from the EU’s reliance on imported fossil fuels, contrasting with the United States, which is a net exporter of energy. In 2024, EU gas wholesale prices were on average nearly five times those in the US. Average EU industrial electricity prices were roughly two and a half times higher than in the US. The transition to clean, domestically generated energy is therefore essential to reduce European energy costs. Despite rapid decarbonisation of the power sector, fossil fuels remain vital for electricity generation and continue to significantly influence final consumer costs. Additional factors influencing final prices include the fixed costs of supporting renewables and maintaining and expanding the energy networks, and consumption taxes and levies. However, the ongoing energy transition is reshaping cost dynamics. Renewables, with fixed capital costs and no fuel requirements, are increasingly transforming the electricity sector. The electrification of heating, transport and other energy services further reduces fossil-fuel demand, shifting overall energy costs from variable fuel expenses to fixed capital investments. As the energy transition progresses, EU energy costs can be expected to fall, but how far they fall and how they are shared will depend on policy choices in four main areas. In the short term, policymakers must allocate system costs fairly across energy consumers. Medium-term policies should encourage demand flexibility in electricity to improve system efficiency. In the long-term, coordinated investment at EU level and deeper cross-border interconnection will drive down final costs for all consumers.
Topic:
Climate Change, European Union, Economy, Industrialization, Decarbonization, Energy, and Competition
Political Geography:
Europe

209. Finance for nature: how to improve funding for the protection of biodiversity

Author:
Heather Grabbe and Luca Léry Moffat
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
The economics of biodiversity are still little understood and the loss of nature, which provides pollination, clean water and other ecosystem services, is often considered to have primarily local economic impact. But nature has an intrinsic value and also has extrinsic value to many parts of the economy. Destruction of nature has global costs because nature loss accelerates climate change by releasing greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, causes water stress and crop failures that reduce food exports, and can force people to move. Some of the consequences are systemic. Others are long term, because potential solutions to human problems contained in intact ecosystems, such as medicines and bio-technologies, are lost to future generations. The benefits from nature – and particularly biodiversity – do not result in revenue flows that would protect natural capital assets from degradation. The costs of ecosystem destruction are still largely unaccounted for. Finance for biodiversity is very small relative to what is required for its maintenance. Most of the sources are state or public funds, or from private philanthropy. Because biodiversity is complex and has largely been ignored as an economic issue, market mechanisms are still at an early stage of development. Nature still does not appear on many balance sheets, and nor is it integrated into risk assessments across the public and private sectors. This policy brief summarises the options and outlines the main considerations in finding better ways to value nature. We explain why financial tools are important for biodiversity, give an overview of the range of tools developed to finance ecosystems and assess which would be most suitable to pursue at European Union level. The focus in developing existing and new tools should be on whether they can deliver reliable revenue streams over a long period to maintain the value of natural assets. In the EU, the most impactful immediate means of using financing to protect and restore nature is to defund the damage caused to biodiversity by eliminating nature-harming subsidies, starting with reform of the common agricultural policy.
Topic:
Climate Change, Climate Finance, Biodiversity, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe

210. A European circular single market for economic security and competitiveness

Author:
Heather Grabbe and Luca Léry Moffat
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
If the European Union is to achieve a sustainable net-zero economy, resources need to be used much more efficiently. Extraction from nature and processing of materials are the principal causes of biodiversity loss and are also major sources of pollution, water stress and greenhouse gas emissions. Resources are used inefficiently currently because market and government failures create a nexus of disincentives and barriers to firms and individuals, hindering them in making resource-efficient choices. The most prominent failure is the artificial cheapness of raw materials because the environmental and human costs of extraction are not including in their prices. A powerful way to improve resource efficiency is to increase circularity, so that fewer resources are used to meet the same level of human need. This can be done by extending the duration of use and reuse of materials, and by reducing resource demand from the start by designing products and systems for optimal efficiency. A circular single market would allow faster de-risking from toxic dependencies and economic coercion by authoritarian regimes. It would increase resilience in the context of fragile supply chains while reducing instability from volatile commodity prices. Firm competitiveness would also be enhanced, given that European companies operate on a continent that is poor in energy and natural resources, and are thus very exposed to future scarcity of resources when climate impacts will make water and land scarcer. If firms were to optimise production and consumption systems for efficiency now, they would be ahead of the curve. To develop the circular economy further, the EU will need to spur investment. Public policy that sets common standards and a predictable regulatory framework would accelerate the development of markets for inputs such as recyclates and services such as repair, both in the EU and in trade partners. The EU has established a legislative framework for the circular economy but it needs scaling up in the forthcoming Circular Economy Act.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Markets, European Union, Economic Security, and Resources
Political Geography:
Europe