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191. Climate shocks and economic resilience: Evidence from Zambia's formal sector

Author:
Kwabena Adu-Ababio, Evaristo Mwale, and Rodrigo Oliveira
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Low-income countries face the combined challenges of climate shocks and limited domestic revenue mobilization, yet these issues are rarely studied together. This paper provides new evidence on the impact of climate shocks on firm performance and tax revenue in a low-income country context, using firm-level data from Zambia. We find that extreme weather events, such as excessive rainfall and high temperatures, significantly reduce firms’ sales, input purchases, and tax collection, particularly in sectors such as manufacturing, retail, accommodation, and construction. Firms respond by reducing employment and wages, reflecting a decline in productivity. Our findings highlight the need to consider the combined effects of climate shocks on both formal sector productivity and government revenue in developing countries, where taxation on services and goods (e.g. VAT) represents a larger share of government budgets.
Topic:
Climate Change, Revenue, Firms, and Value-Added Tax (VAT)
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

192. Gendered effects of climate and conflict shocks on food security in Sudan and the mitigating role of social protection

Author:
Aysegül Kayaoglu, Ghassan Baliki, and Tilman Brück
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Climate change and violent conflict are defining challenges of our time. However, it is not yet understood how they interact in shaping human welfare and food security, how their interaction shapes gendered outcomes, or how social protection systems can mitigate their impact. To address these knowledge gaps, we first examine how household food insecurity relates to conflict and climate shocks and whether these associations are gender-sensitive. Second, we test what mechanisms can reduce the negative impacts of these shocks. Our empirical analysis relies on novel survey data of 7,908 rural households collected across 14 states in Sudan in 2022. Sudan currently faces floods, droughts, and violent conflict affecting agricultural production and food supply. We find that climate shocks do not significantly affect food consumption scores (FCS), while exposure to violent conflict leads to a substantial decrease in FCS. Both productive and nonproductive assets increase FCS for all households, especially female-headed households. Longer distances to agricultural input and output markets correlate with lower FCS, particularly for maleheaded households. Women’s social group membership positively impacts on FCS for femaleheaded households. However, women do not receive additional benefits from other social networks during climate and conflict exposure, while male-headed households benefit from all types of social networks. Income diversification is identified as a key strategy for improving FCS, particularly for female-headed households during conflict. Informal cash transfers significantly improve FCS, especially for female-headed households. In contrast, formal cash transfers negatively correlate with FCS, although they positively impact on male-headed households during violent conflict. Overall, we recommend targeted social protection programmes that address gender disparities and enhance resilience among vulnerable populations.
Topic:
Climate Change, Food Security, Conflict, Gender, and Social Protection
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

193. The gendered effects of climate shocks on labour and welfare in Zambia

Author:
Alessandra Hidalgo-Arestegui, Patricia Justino, Gabriel Monteiro, Rodrigo Oliveira, and Bruce Sianyeuka
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper exploits several waves of two major nationwide representative surveys to document the impacts of climate shocks on individuals and households in Zambia. We merge these datasets with historical precipitation and temperature data at the district level. First, we show the gendered effects of the shocks, which have a higher negative impact on women. Women have a lower probability of being in the labourforce and fewer hours of work when experiencing shocks. Second, we show that households affected by climate shocks have 16% lower consumption, which is mainly explained by female-headed households. We show that social protection policies mitigate income reduction but not consumption, which may suggest that climate shocks affect households directly by reducing their income, but also indirectly by raising food prices.
Topic:
Climate Change, Labor Issues, Consumption, Gender, and Climate Shocks
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

194. Raindrop in the drought? Vulnerability to climate shocks and the role of social protection in Zambia

Author:
Katrin Gasior, Pia Rattenhuber, Adnan Shahir, and Anna Zasova
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Zambia’s reliance on rain-fed agriculture makes its economy and population highly vulnerable to frequent droughts and irregular rainfall. This paper assesses the role of social protection, specifically the Social Cash Transfer (SCT) program, in mitigating drought-induced poverty and consumption declines. Using the MicroZAMOD microsimulation model and districtlevel rainfall data, we find that rainfall shocks significantly increase poverty and reduce household consumption, disproportionately affecting the poorest households. While the current SCT program provides some relief, reforms to eligibility criteria, particularly removing the household composition requirement, could improve targeting, expand coverage, and strengthen resilience against climate-related economic shocks.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Tax Systems, Vulnerability, and Social Protection
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

195. An energy and sustainability road map for the Middle East

Author:
Ariel Ezrahi
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Global warming is impacting the Middle East at more than twice the global average. In a region already beset by territorial and religious conflicts, this is alarming: Beyond the immediate human suffering from war, the region’s people face severe consequences of global warming. While it is uncertain if humanity can entirely avert this crisis, it is clear that mitigation and adaptation measures are essential to address its worst effects. Climate change respects no borders; for instance, nature does not distinguish between Areas A, B, and C in the West Bank, nor does it differentiate between the rising sea levels along the shores of Tel Aviv and Beirut. Cross-border cooperation will be critical to implementing effective mitigation and adaptation measures. As temperatures rise and extreme weather events, such as intense but infrequent rainfall, become more common, countries in the region must work together to optimize and expand sustainable energy and water resources. This report was partially written prior to the October 7, 2023, attack by Hamas on Israel, which triggered the ongoing Gaza war. Beyond the physical reconstruction required in Israel and the Gaza Strip, the traumas on both sides of the border could take decades to heal. Now, with the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, the region has a rare opportunity for rebuilding and peace. On the Israeli side, it is clear that new Israeli leadership will be critical for rebuilding and unifying the country, as well as for mending relations with the Palestinians and the wider region. Saudi Arabia has indicated it would need to see a clear path for an independent Palestinian state for normalization of its relationship with Israel to proceed. Other regional powers, such as the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain, have cooled relations with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government. For there to be a realistic possibility of building on the Abraham Accords—or even taking small steps to increase cooperation in the region—a “New Middle Eastern Order” will need to be established. A comprehensive new US plan could shape this new order. The United States, seen by some in the region as disengaging, now has an opportunity to counter that perception by helping to establish a “New Middle Eastern Order” based on a tangible plan for strong intra-regional energy and climate-related cooperation, alongside efforts to facilitate a permanent solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. For example, the energy and climate component could form a cornerstone of the US strategy for the region. The alternative is a region increasingly mired in conflict due to dwindling resources in the face of a worsening climate crisis and a deepening of existing conflicts fueled by a destructive Iranian agenda. Furthermore, this alternative risks exacerbating global conflict-driven emissions and environmental disasters, as seen recently with the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. Although tangible cooperation on energy- and climate-related issues has so far been limited, this can—and indeed must—change. The purpose of this piece is to highlight some specific areas where cooperation can be undertaken and advanced under the task force platform outlined below.1
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Markets, Governance, Sustainability, and Energy
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Gulf Nations

196. Understanding electricity utilities in sub-Saharan Africa: The role of civil society in improving performance, governance, and accountability

Author:
Peter Twesigye
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
This report provides a primer on the performance of electricity utilities in sub-Saharan Africa, reflecting on the current landscape of power sector and utility challenges, the reforms undertaken to address performance failures, opportunities for a “utility of the future” amid the global energy transition, governance frameworks available to assess performance (like the infrastructure regulatory system and World Bank’s Utility Performance and Behavior Today [UPBEAT] platform), and the prospects for changing the political economy of state-owned utilities to significantly improve transparency, accountability, and performance. It provides foundational knowledge on how to use financial statements and economic tools so that nonexperts can assess the financial health of a utility for the purposes of demanding greater accountability. It also provides insights on why energy sector power purchase agreements (PPAs) should be made more transparent for greater public accountability. Further, the primer lays out the need for an enhanced role of civil society in advocating for improved transparency and greater civil participation in the governance of state-owned utilities and how regulation can be of further help. The key takeaway is that state-owned enterprises should be subject to commercial governance arrangements, including mandatory and stringent contracts and exposure to some private capital as well as stakeholder annual general meetings, open to the public, similar to those that occur in the private sector. This report complements three other reports published for Ghana, Kenya, and South Africa. Each of those reports focuses on understanding the specific governance conditions surrounding their respective national electricity utilities. All these reports together are intended to build the programmatic and campaigning capacity among civil society actors to enable them to engage in improving the governance of electricity utilities. As such, the intended audience for this report is, first, members of civil society, and then policymakers and energy sector practitioners who are concerned about the operations of their national electricity utilities and who are contemplating advocacy and programming to improve their performance.
Topic:
Civil Society, Climate Change, Governance, Electricity, Utilities, and Energy
Political Geography:
Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

197. Defining and Assessing Transformational Climate Change Adaptation: A framework for application to agri-food projects

Author:
Richard Kohl
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
This discussion paper proposes a framework of four indicators of transformational adaptation – the breadth and depth of change, the intention to achieve transformation, scale and sustainability – and provides a framework to apply these indicators to four types of interventions in agri-food systems.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Food Security, Sustainability, Adaptation, and Food Systems
Political Geography:
Global Focus

198. Food Wars: Conflict, Hunger, and Globalization, 2023

Author:
Marc Cohen and Ellen Messer
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Most wars of the late 20th and early 21st centuries have been “food wars”: food and hunger were used as weapons, food and food-related water and energy infrastructure were damaged intentionally or incidentally, and food insecurity persisted as a legacy of conflict destructiveness. Frequently, food insecurity, in turn, is a trigger or underlying cause of conflict. This paper analyzes 54 active conflict, refugee-hosting, and conflict legacy countries with populations in 2023 facing “crisis-level” acute food insecurity, i.e., at Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) 3 or higher. In total, nearly 278 million people in these countries faced crisis-level hunger in 2023, accounting for 99% of the global population at IPC 3+ (281.6 million people). Analysis indicates that war-displacement-hunger crises occur in countries that continue to rely heavily on primary product exports. Paradoxically, peacebuilding efforts have often assumed that economic liberalization offers the best or only pathway to sustainable peace. Yet struggle for control over fungible primary commodities can fund more violence, increased inequality, continued instability, and the risk of renewed conflict. Agricultural export commodities are important sources of revenue for smallholder farmers and governments in conflict-affected, food-insecure countries. The conflict implications of export- and food-crop value chains are therefore crucial for future food-wars policy discussions and actions. Some efforts seek to link export crops to efforts to achieve peace, sustainable livelihoods, and environmental restoration. Other proposed solutions focus on adopting more holistic national development strategies, including food-systems approaches that protect and promote the right to food and livelihood security, as well as policy approaches and frameworks that might more effectively consider conflict, globalization, and climate change in food and nutrition policy.
Topic:
Climate Change, Food Security, Hunger, Displacement, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Global Focus

199. Putting An End To World Hunger – The European Union’s role in transforming the global food system

Author:
Hanna Saarinen, Rebecca Varghese Buchholz, Bertram Zagema, and Chris Joseph
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Farmers around the world produce more than enough to feed everyone on the planet, yet since 2017 hunger has increased sharply. Promoting food production and distribution that are socially equitable and environmentally sustainable is a necessity, in Europe and globally. This paper highlights the European Union’s role in addressing global hunger and supporting a sustainable and equitable global food system transformation. A new direction is needed and the EU can make a positive change. Smallholder farmers in the Global South offer enormous untapped potential for fighting global hunger but they must be better supported. The EU must also stand for climate justice by taking the climate change threat to food security seriously, limit the EU’s global land use footprint by stopping unsustainable and irresponsible land use that drives hunger and inequality, and balance the power in food systems by breaking corporate domination and enhancing equitable global food governance.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, European Union, Hunger, Land, and Farmers
Political Geography:
Europe and Global South

200. Unheard Water Stories from Asia, Africa and MENA: Elevating local voices for water security in a climate insecure world

Author:
Nuzhat Nueary
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
This paper shares stories from six countries—Bangladesh, Nepal, Kenya, Somalia, Syria, and Iraq—highlighting the challenges communities face in accessing water. It seeks to bring forward the unique perspectives of communities from diverse backgrounds, each experiencing water crises in distinct ways. While climate change intensifies their crises, many communities also face marginalization due to exclusionary water governance. The impacts are further compounded by factors such as gender, poverty, ethnicity, and race. However, the voices and perspectives of these communities are often overlooked in global climate discussions.The paper aims to highlight these diverse community experiences and advocate for the inclusion of local voices and leadership in climate actions and interventions to ensure fairer access to water. As global climate events like COP-29 unfold, it calls on governments to create inclusive climate policies, integrate water issues into loss and damage discussions, actively involve women and local voices, and urge rich, polluting nations to compensate those most affected by historic and ongoing carbon emissions.
Topic:
Climate Change, Migration, Water, Governance, Climate Finance, Land Rights, Drought, Loss and Damage (L&D), Gender Equality, Water Insecurity, and Salinity
Political Geography:
Bangladesh, Kenya, Africa, Iraq, South Asia, Middle East, Nepal, Syria, and Somalia