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21. Copper is king – Zambia stands to win

Author:
Busisipho Siyobi
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:
The copper price is booming. Experts are divided over whether this boom is structural rather than cyclical. It is our considered view, in light of the current evidence, that copper prices will continue to climb due to medium to long-term supply deficits and the comparative inefficiency of copper’s potential substitutes. Very few high-grade copper deposits remain. Once they are exploited, lower-grade jurisdictions such as Zambia will become increasingly attractive. Investment opportunities into Zambia are therefore ripe for bold investors. However, the country presents a challenging operating environment. Only if investors are deeply committed to high impact Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) performance, will sustained, long-run yields flow. The corollary is that investors should commit to building state institutions that serve the interests of Zambia’s citizens, and crowd out irresponsible players.
Topic:
Development, Natural Resources, Governance, Investment, Institutions, and Copper
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

22. Estimating the Effect of Christian Messages on Civic Engagement: Evidence from a Community-Collaborative Study in Zambia

Author:
Elizabeth Sperber, Gwyneth McClendon, and O'Brien Kaaba
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
A significant literature suggests that religious conviction can drive political participation, perhaps because religious people internalize a moral obligation to act toward the common good and/or because religious conviction gives people a sense that their actions will make a difference. This paper presents findings from a community-collaborative pilot study in Zambia that examines these ideas. Zambia is an overwhelmingly Christian state experiencing dramatic democratic backsliding. Zambian churches are among the major providers of civic engagement education and programming. Together with our community partners, we randomly assigned Zambian youth (aged 18-35) volunteers into one-time civic engagement workshops. Identical basic civic educational material was presented in each workshop. Yet, we ended this curriculum with two different sets of pre-recorded Christian motivational messages: In 50% of the workshops, these messages emphasized a religious obligation to sacrifice for the common good. In the other 50%, the messages emphasized the power of faith to make change in the world. We found that the latter message (emphasizing the power of faith) moved workshop participants to be more willing to participate in peaceful protest, to disavow political violence, and to critically evaluate other people who choose not to participate in electoral politics. By contrast, the message focused on sacrifice for the common good did not affect political participation relative to baseline. We discuss how the study advances research on religion and political participation as well as knowledge about Christian civic education programs, which are prevalent but understudied throughout.
Topic:
Civil Society, Politics, Religion, Democracy, and Youth
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

23. Energy Poverty in Zambia

Author:
Bernard Tembo, Rabecca Hatoongo-Masenke, and Chama Bowa-Mundia
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
Of the estimated 3.01 million households in Zambia, in 2015, only 35.8% and 16.1% utilised clean energy fuels for their lighting and cooking services respectively1 (CSO, 2016). Usage and access to clean energy is essential for economic growth, human development and more generally poverty reduction. This notwithstanding, access has remained low in many developing countries. For instance, 1.1 billion of the total global population do not have access to electricity, of which majority are found in Asia, Africa and Oceania (United Nations, 2016). Furthermore, the majority of this population is found in rural areas. Given the centrality of energy to people's everyday life, governments worldwide have devised di erent policies and mechanisms to enhance the use of clean energy. Limited access and use of clean energy is mainly thought of as an issue of a ordability (Barnes and Floor, 1996; Pachauri et al., 2004; Rosnes and Vennemo, 2012; Murtaza and Faridi, 2014; Ismail and Khembo, 2015; GRZ, 2017; Venkateswaran et al., 2018; Kyprianou et al., 2019; Oum, 2019; Yan et al., 2019). Hence, the subsidy policies being implemented in many countries. On the one hand, it has been observed that lack of access to clean energy is a sign of poverty; while on the other hand, access to clean energy helps in the alleviation of poverty (Pachauri et al., 2004; Nussbaumer et al., 2011; Okwanya and Abah, 2018). However, in some cases, access to clean energy is hampered by both the price of the energy (i.e. an a ordability issue) and by availability of infrastructure to deliver the required energy. Thus, in such situations, some governments have had to borrow to facilitate the development and expansion of energy infrastructure; on top of subsidising the use of clean energy. This notwithstanding, the lack of use of clean energy at household level is not well understood. For instance, it is thought that if a household is classi ed as income poor, then it will not be able to use electricity (Pachauri et al., 2004; Murtaza and Faridi, 2014). And in such cases, some governments opt to implement subsidy policies. While this approach has proved useful for some households, it is not an e ective approach of delivering clean energy to the people who need it the most. There is, therefore, great need to identify aspects that determine whether a household would have access to clean energy and let alone use it. This knowledge would be critical in designing policies that hope to increase utilisation of clean energy fuels. As such, this paper sought to understand energy poverty among households in Zambia. Energy poverty is a concept concerned with lack of access and use of modern energy fuels.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Poverty, Infrastructure, and Electricity
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

24. An Analysis of the Legal Framework for Public Debt Management in Zambia

Author:
Florence Banda-Muleya, Mbewe Kalikeka, Zambwe Shingwele, Philip Ngongo, and Shebo Nalishebo
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
Zambia’s current legal framework for public debt management is inadequate. The high level of external debt standing at US$11.2 billion and domestic debt at K80.2 billion due to fast pace of debt contraction; the resulting heightened risk of debt distress; and the weak implementation of the 2017-2019 Medium Term Debt Strategy (MTDS), raise questions on the adequacy of the laws that govern public debt management. Now more than ever, with Zambia quickly headed to its first bullet repayment on its Eurobond debt, the country needs to enhance its legal framework on Public Debt Management (PDM).
Topic:
Debt, Government, Economy, and Public Debt
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

25. Brexit: An Assessment of Zambia- UK Trade & Investment Relations

Author:
Shimukunki Manchishi and Mwanda Phiri
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
Following the Brexit referendum held in the UK in 2016 that resulted in a majority vote to leave the EU, there has been speculation and uncertainty surrounding the likely impact of Brexit on trade relations between the UK and developing countries such as Zambia. With Brexit, comes the exit of the UK from the EU, its customs union as well as the single market. Consequently, this implies that Zambia’s trade with the UK will no longer be under the ambit of the EU Everything But Arms (EBA) trade agreement which grants Zambian products other than arms, duty-free and quota-free market access to the UK. Naturally, this brings about questions of the likely impact of Brexit on trade relations between Zambia and the UK which thus far, has been determined collectively under the framework of the EU since the UK’s accession to the EU customs union. In this policy paper, we provide a contextual analysis of the same. From this, we deduce that a ‘deal’ or ‘no deal’ Brexit is not likely to adversely impact the UK’s trade with Zambia. This is on condition that the UK’s own unilateral preference scheme comes into place and in time, to replicate the EU-EBA scheme with no disruption to traders. On the Investment front, although the UK has been Zambia’s fourth-largest source country for FDI inflows over the period 2010-2017, investments have been waning. Brexit has the potential to turn things around as the UK seeks to increase investments in other jurisdictions outside of the EU. With the UK now envisioning to become the largest G7 investor in Africa by 2022, there is a high probability that Brexit could lead to a positive investment crowding in effect, provided Zambia becomes a more attractive investment destination.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Brexit, Investment, and Trade
Political Geography:
Africa, United Kingdom, Europe, and Zambia

26. State of Financial Cooperatives in Zambia: A viable option for increasing fi nancial inclusion?

Author:
ZIPAR
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
This policy brief presents the summary fi ndings of a study on Promoting Financial Cooperatives (FCs) in Zambia that was conducted between 2017 and 2018 with fi nancial support from the Rural Finance Expansion Program (RUFEP), Ministry of Commerce Trade and Industry (MCTI) and the Zambia Center for Accountancy Studies (ZCAS). The study used both qualitative and quantitative approaches which included a situational analysis of FCs in Zambia, a study tour to Kenya and a census of Financial Cooperatives (FCs) eight provinces. The main objective of the study was to contribute to the development of FCs in Zambia by generating information on their performance. The secondary objectives of the study were to: 1. Undertake a situational analysis to develop a clear understanding of the landscape for the FCs in Zambia in terms of the regulatory framework, support institutions and the nature and level at which the FCs operate. 2. Undertake a Census of cooperatives to understand the opportunities and constraining factors for the growth of the Cooperatives movement in Zambia. It was envisaged that the study would provide evidence about FCs that could be used in the revision of the Cooperatives Act currently underway, aid MCTI understand the nature of Cooperatives and devise strategies for monitoring FCs. The study also aimed at providing information about the state of FCs that can used by the apex body of FCs and stakeholders such as Bank of Zambia.
Topic:
Regulation, Banks, Economic Development, and Financial Cooperatives
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

27. Building Blocks and Challenges for the Implementation of the Global Compact on Refugees in Africa

Author:
Sergio Carciotto and Filppio Ferraro
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:
Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:
Forced displacement continues to be a major challenge to human security across the globe. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the global population of forcibly displaced people increased by 2.3 million people in 2018, and by the end of the year, more than 70 million individuals were forcibly displaced worldwide (UNHCR 2019a). UNHCR also estimated that, in 2018, 13.6 million people were newly displaced as a result of conflicts and droughts (ibid.). Building on the predicament of global sustainability and the 2030 agenda for sustainable development, the Global Compact on Refugees (GCR) is a framework based on four strategic objectives: to (1) ease pressures on host countries, (2) enhance refugee self-reliance, (3) expand access to third-country solutions, and (4) support conditions in countries of origin for return in safety and dignity (UNHCR 2018; UN General Assembly 2019). The GCR urges the international community to respond comprehensively and innovatively to the plight of refugees, and to make a paradigm shift in global humanitarian aid to emphasize refugee self-reliance and livelihoods. One of the risks of such a nonbinding and thin agreement, however, is that the GCR will give rise to a bureaucratic process that “does not come even close to dependably addressing the operational deficits of the refugee regime” (Hathaway 2019, 594). This article looks closely at the prospects for the GCR in sub-Saharan Africa based on the need to shift from a humanitarian system of “care and maintenance” to comprehensive and effective development responses to refugee crises. It also discusses some of these experiences and best practices to promote a resilience-based development approach. It recognizes that development initiatives implemented or still to be implemented under the normative framework of the GCR and the Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework (CRRF) are subject to a multiyear planning and implementation cycle. Therefore, this article does not intend to evaluate their efficacy or measure progress under the GCR, but rather to identify key challenges and to highlight achievements and promising initiatives in sub-Saharan Africa. It particularly focuses on implementation and rollout of the CRRF in Chad, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, Uganda, and Zambia in Africa.
Topic:
United Nations, Refugees, Displacement, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Uganda, Kenya, Africa, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Somalia, Zambia, Chad, Sahara, and Sub-Saharan Africa

28. Quest for Growth and Resilience in the Face of Mounting Economic Headwinds

Author:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis & Research (ZIPAR)
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
Zambia has experienced weakening macroeconomic conditions in the past 10 years, with falling real GDP and per capita GDP growth, a depreciating kwacha and rising inflation… Against this backdrop, the 2021 National Budget is themed: “Stimulate Economic Recovery and Build Resilience to Safeguard Livelihoods and Protect the Vulnerable”. Many sub-functional big winners are expected in 2021 in terms of allocation increases (e.g. FISP, Voter Registration and Social Cash Transfer), and some critical losers are also expected, particularly Empowerment Funds.
Topic:
Budget, GDP, Economic Growth, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

29. A Review of the Performance of the 2020 National Budget

Author:
Mbewe Kalikeka
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
This briefing note provides a review of the performance of the 2020 National Budget. It also provides contexts of the macroeconomic fundamentals with bearing on the revenue and expenditure trends. The brief is based on an analysis of the fiscal tables of Government; it compares the 2020 approved budget allocations with the preliminary outturns for 2020, as well as the preliminary and actual outturns for 2019. The layout of this brief is as follows: Section 2 gives a brief overview of the macroeconomic performance in 2020. Section 3 and Section 4 shed light on the revenue and expenditure performance respectively. Section 5 concludes the brief and provides recommendations.
Topic:
Budget, Macroeconomics, Fiscal Policy, and Revenue Management
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

30. Implementing the Mop Barrier Assessment Methodology With the Zambia Police Service

Author:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
In the context of the Canadian-led Elsie Initiative aiming to reduce barriers for uniformed women in UN Peace Operations, DCAF has developed the Measuring Opportunities for Women in Peace Operations (MOWIP) methodology, in partnership with Cornell University and research institutions in eight troop- and police contributing countries across the world. The MOWIP methodology aims to provide institutions with the evidence base necessary to design effective interventions which substantially increase the number of women who deploy. While it is currently being piloted in 7 other countries, the MOWIP methodology was successfully implemented in Zambia with the Zambia Police Service (ZPS) between May 2019 and March 2020, in partnership with the Southern African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (SACCORD). This resource highlights the key takeaways from the process of implementing the MOWIP methodology in Zambia along with good practices and lessons learned at each stage, including the preparation phase, the data collection phase, the data analysis phase and the validation phase. It aims to provide guidance to TPCCs or security institutions interested in implementing the MOWIP methodology themselves regarding the resources and time commitment required, and outlines the outcomes and benefits of undergoing the Barrier Assessment for the ZPS.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Police, and Models
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia