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21. War Criminals in Bosnia's Republika Srpska: Who are the People in Your Neighbourhood?

Publication Date:
11-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Five years after the signing of the Dayton Peace Accords, which brought an end to almost four years of bloody war in Bosnia, many of those believed to have carried out some of the war's worst atrocities remain at large. The continued presence in the municipalities of Republika Srpska (RS) of individuals suspected of war crimes—some indicated either publicly or secretly by the International War Crimes Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY)—represents a significant obstacle to the return of ethnic minority refugees. It also undermines seriously Bosnia's chances for building central institutions, generating self-sustainable economic growth, and achieving the political transformation necessary to begin the process of integration with the rest of Europe. Moreover, the continued commitment of most war crimes suspects to the goal of a Greater Serbia, and their willingness to use violence to achieve it, could—in the long term—provoke renewed conflict in Bosnia and continued instability in the Balkans.
Topic:
Security, Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Bosnia, Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, Serbia, and Balkans

22. Reaction in Kosovo to Kostunica's Victory

Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
While the world watched in fascination as mass demonstrations in Belgrade toppled Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic from power, Kosovo—where Milosevic had committed some of his worst crimes—had an almost eerie air of normalcy. On the night Milosevic fell, cafés were full and the usual crowd of young people strolled along Pristina's central artery, Mother Theresa Street. But Pristina's surface in difference masked serious unease about events in Serbia and especially about the swelling international welcome for newly elected President Vojislav Kostunica. Kosovo Albania's political circles, opinion leaders, and public, which for long had a head-in-the-sand approach toward the rise of the democratic opposition in Belgrade, are only beginning to come to grips with the changed political landscape in the Balkans caused by Milosevic's fall.
Topic:
Security, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Serbia, Balkans, and Albania

23. Macedonia's Ethnic Albanians: Bridging the Gulf

Publication Date:
08-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Ten Years after independence, Macedonia's two largest ethnic groups continue to lead very separate and distinct lives. The uneasy co-existence between ethnic Macedonians and ethnic Albanians has only just withstood the violent breakup of Yugoslavia and the continuing instability in Kosovo. Valid concerns about Macedonia's security are too often being used to justify postponing hard decisions about internal problems. Political leaders on both sides of the ethnic divide, while negotiating privately for piecemeal improvements, publicly cater to the more extreme nationalists in their respective parties, and positions are hardening. There is a continued reluctance to squarely confront the compromises that would legally safeguard Macedonia's multi-ethnic composition: if that reluctance is not soon overcome, Macedonia and the region face renewed instability.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Macedonia, and Albania

24. Defense Monitor: Montenegro: Looking War In The Face

Author:
Tomas Valasek
Publication Date:
07-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
Few other places in the world seem as close to war as Montenegro, Serbia s smaller partner in the all-but defunct Yugoslav Federation. Montenegro is poised to clash with troops carrying the federal flag of Yugoslavia but in reality serving only the Serbian government of Slobodan Milosevic. The two republics fell out over the nature of the political system: Serbia s government is turning increasingly dictatorial and autocratic while Montenegro is a fledgling democracy. Unlike all previous conflicts in the former Yugoslavia, ethnic differences — which in the case of Serbia and Montenegro are blurry to the point of nonexistent — do not play a major role.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and War
Political Geography:
Yugoslavia, Serbia, and Montenegro

25. The NATO of the Future: Intervention and Integration in Europe

Author:
Bertel Heurlin
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
There is good reason to take a closer look at NATO. The former Cold War alliance has dominated the international arena for a considerable amount of time. Should NATO have been dissolved long ago? What are the reasons for NATO's revival? Not only is NATO expanding, it has also recently conducted a war in the very heart of Europe. What can this renaissance and hectic NATO-activity lead to? Many politicians, commentators and observers discern the development of a new cold war, not least because of the lack of Russian support for, and understanding of, NATO's bombings in the Balkans. In May 1999, a prominent Russian security expert alleged that “if NATO commits a mistake such as the bombings in Yugoslavia, there would be a risk of Russian retaliation with nuclear weapons.2 Others, on the other hand, predict a collapse of the organisation as a whole because of internal disputes among the member states due to the extremely complex situation in the Balkans.
Topic:
Security, NATO, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Yugoslavia, and Balkans

26. Macedonia: Towards Destabilisation? The Kosovo crisis takes its toll on Macedonia

Publication Date:
05-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Since NATO bombing of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia began on 24 March 1999, Macedonia has been in an extremely vulnerable frontline position, facing an unmanageable influx of refugees from Kosovo, the prospect of economic collapse and volatile domestic interethnic relations.
Topic:
Security, Migration, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, and Macedonia

27. War in The Balkans: Consequences of the Kosovo Conflict and Future Options for Kosovo and the Region

Publication Date:
04-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
NATO's strategy in the war with Yugoslavia over Kosovo isn't working. As the Alliance's bombing campaign enters its fourth week, it is Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic who is still winning the political game.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Politics, and War
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Yugoslavia

28. Republika Srpska - Poplasen, Brcko and Kosovo: Three Crises and Out?

Publication Date:
04-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The early part of 1999 has been turbulent for Republika Srpska. Political life has been unsettled by three separate and hardly-related crises: the decision of the High Representative to remove from office the RS President Nikola Poplasen; the decision of International Arbitrator Roberts Owen to give the municipality of Brcko neither to RS nor to the Federation but to both as a condominium; and the NATO air-strikes on the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY).
Topic:
International Relations, Security, NATO, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Yugoslavia

29. Remarks: Prime Minister of Greece K. Simitis

Author:
K. Simitis
Publication Date:
04-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Thank you very much for the opportunity you have given me today to develop some thoughts as to the role of my country within our broader region, South-East Europe, and to do so before this distinguished body, the Council on Foreign Relations. Of course, I would never have imagined that my speech would be so timely, unfortunately, for reasons which have to do with the continuing crisis in Yugoslavia. The recent developments there, I fear, have confirmed in the minds of many observers of events around the world, those stereotypes which have prevailed for more than a century in the Balkans,—that it still the powder keg of Europe. Of course, no one can deny that the history of the Balkans is one of turbulence. It is appropriate to remind you, that the history of other European regions is also full of wars and other atrocities. Unfortunately, in some cases, far greater than those which took place and are taking place in the Balkans. I would also add, that the perturbed development of the Balkans has also been marked by long-term, economic and social under-development.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Greece, Yugoslavia, and Balkans

30. MILOSEVIC: DÉJÀ VU ALL OVER AGAIN?

Publication Date:
12-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In the past few weeks the Belgrade authorities have sacked a number of key public officials. The two most prominent were security chief Stanisic and head of the army general staff Perisic. The firings triggered much speculation in the international media about the stability of Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic's regime. According to one interpretation, the sackings signal a fundamental weakness in government ranks, with Milosevic moving pre-emptively to oust potential rivals to his authority. Alternatively, the sackings may represent an attempt by the Yugoslav President to further consolidate his power base and to effectively rule with the backing of Yugoslavia's military and security establishments. Both Stanisic and Perisic were seen as Milosevic's opponents on several key policies, notably Belgrade's handling of relations with the Kosovo Albanians. Both Perisic and Stanisic, reportedly moderates not favouring the use of severe force against the Kosovars, have been replaced by Milosevic "yes-men" regarded as proponents of a violent resolution of the Kosovo question. If this is even in part the case, Stanisic's and Perisic's sackings do not necessary reflect a weakness in Milosevic's rule. Instead, the sackings may only signal Milosevic's resolve to return to force as a means of regional problem solving.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Yugoslavia