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11. Montenegro: Time to Decide. A Pre-election Briefing

Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The extraordinary parliamentary election to be held in Montenegro on 22 April 2001 is focused on the single issue of the republics future status, whether in a continued federal union with Serbia, or as an independent state. The election was called following the break-up of Montenegros ruling coalition at the end of December 2000 over this very question. Following the ouster of Slobodan Miloević as president of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) in October 2000, Montenegrin President Milo Djukanović opted to formalise the republics break with the FRY, which in practice had already ceased to function in any meaningful sense. On 28 December 2000 two of the parties in the ruling .For a Better Life. (D.B) coalition, Djukanovićs Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) and the Social Democratic party (SDP), adopted a new Platform on relations with Serbia, which envisaged a loose association of fully independent states. The anti independence Peoples Party (NS) promptly left the DŽB coalition, thus precipitating the forthcoming election.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, and Serbia

12. The Effectiveness of the Exercise of Jurisdiction by the International Criminal Court: The Issue of Complementarity

Author:
Sammy Smooha and Susan Hannah Farbstein
Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
Abstract:
The prevalence of collective violence and the agony of mass atrocity may prove to be the twentieth century's most distressing and enduring legacies. From Germany to Uganda, from Cambodia to Sierra Leone, from the Former Yugoslavia to Rwanda, the past hundred years are replete with examples of terrifying violations of human rights and humanitarian law committed against diverse groups of people. Limited attempts to unveil the truth about past horrors, to hold individuals responsible, and to deter future offenses have repeatedly proven inadequate. A dearth of satisfactory moral and legal responses to these crimes often left victims suffering without any sense of reconciliation, while perpetrators routinely enjoyed impunity rather than facing justice.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
Uganda, Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, Germany, Cambodia, Sierra Leone, and Rwanda

13. The Situation of Minorities in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia: Towards an Implementation of the Framework Convention for the Protection of National Minorities

Author:
Matthias KÖNIG
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
Abstract:
On 11 May 2001 the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) acceded to the Council of Europe's FRAMEWORK CONVENTION FOR THE PROTECTION OF NATIONAL MINORITIES (FRAMEWORK CONVENTION hereinafter). The new government in Belgrade, in power since the democratic revolution in October 2000, has thereby declared its political intention to improve the situation of minorities by revising its legislation in accordance with the normative standards of the FRAMEWORK CONVENTION. By identifying general patterns of minority treatment in both legal standard-setting and factual practice in the FRY over the past decade, this study contributes to an analysis of primary concerns to be considered in the implementation of the FRAMEWORK CONVENTION.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Ethnic Conflict, International Law, and Nationalism
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Yugoslavia

14. War Criminals in Bosnia's Republika Srpska: Who are the People in Your Neighbourhood?

Publication Date:
11-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Five years after the signing of the Dayton Peace Accords, which brought an end to almost four years of bloody war in Bosnia, many of those believed to have carried out some of the war's worst atrocities remain at large. The continued presence in the municipalities of Republika Srpska (RS) of individuals suspected of war crimes—some indicated either publicly or secretly by the International War Crimes Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY)—represents a significant obstacle to the return of ethnic minority refugees. It also undermines seriously Bosnia's chances for building central institutions, generating self-sustainable economic growth, and achieving the political transformation necessary to begin the process of integration with the rest of Europe. Moreover, the continued commitment of most war crimes suspects to the goal of a Greater Serbia, and their willingness to use violence to achieve it, could—in the long term—provoke renewed conflict in Bosnia and continued instability in the Balkans.
Topic:
Security, Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Bosnia, Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, Serbia, and Balkans

15. Macedonia's Ethnic Albanians: Bridging the Gulf

Publication Date:
08-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Ten Years after independence, Macedonia's two largest ethnic groups continue to lead very separate and distinct lives. The uneasy co-existence between ethnic Macedonians and ethnic Albanians has only just withstood the violent breakup of Yugoslavia and the continuing instability in Kosovo. Valid concerns about Macedonia's security are too often being used to justify postponing hard decisions about internal problems. Political leaders on both sides of the ethnic divide, while negotiating privately for piecemeal improvements, publicly cater to the more extreme nationalists in their respective parties, and positions are hardening. There is a continued reluctance to squarely confront the compromises that would legally safeguard Macedonia's multi-ethnic composition: if that reluctance is not soon overcome, Macedonia and the region face renewed instability.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Macedonia, and Albania

16. Blunder in the Balkans: The Clinton Administration's Bungled War against Serbia

Author:
Christopher Layne
Publication Date:
05-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The Clinton administration has made one miscalculation after another in dealing with the Kosovo crisis. U.S. officials and their NATO colleagues never understood the historical and emotional importance of Kosovo to the Serbia n people, believing instead that Belgrade's harsh repression of the ethnic Albanian secessionist movement in Kosovo merely reflected the will of President Slobodan Milosevic of Yugoslavia. The administration's foreign policy team mistakenly concluded that, under a threat of air strikes, the Yugoslav government would sign a dictate d peace accord (the Rambouillet agreement) to be implemented by a NATO peacekeeping force in Kosovo. Even if Milosevic initially refused to sign the Rambouillet agreement, administration leaders believed that Belgrade would relent after a brief “demonstration” bombing campaign. Those calculations proved to be disastrously wrong.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Serbia, Balkans, and Albania

17. Transforming Serbia: the Key to Long Term Stability

Publication Date:
08-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The NATO intervention in Serbia and the indictment of Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic by the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia have created openings within Serbian society and exposed cleavages within the regime that should be rapidly exploited to hasten Milosevic's departure and bring about genuine political change. The loss of Kosovo, the destruction resulting from the bombing, and the refusal of the international community to rebuild Serbia until Milosevic is out of power have occasioned widespread despair among Serbs who have come to view their country's future under its present leadership as a dead end.
Topic:
NATO, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, and Serbia

18. Montenegro Briefing: Calm Before the Storm

Publication Date:
08-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Just under a year ago a nervous Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic warned the world that Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic was preparing to trigger a new Balkan war by launching a campaign of violence against the tiny republic of Montenegro. Djukanovic was right about Milosevic's intent, but wrong about the target. In March of this year, the dictator struck against ethnic Albanians in Kosovo and unleashed the barbarous Operation Horseshoe.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Government, Politics, and War
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Balkans, Albania, and Montenegro

19. Sidelining Slobodan: Getting rid of Europe's last dictator

Publication Date:
03-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
With just over two years to run before the end of his term as Yugoslav President, Slobodan Milosevic remains entrenched in power in Belgrade. The Yugoslav constitution currently prevents the President from running for re-election in 2001, but while Milosevic may leave the presidency he shows no sign of forfeiting control and is in the process of purging both the army and secret police of all opposition. He also retains some residual influence over such cultural institutions as the Orthodox Church. Individuals who oppose his views and who are potential political opponents are invariably intimidated, often through brute force. Political party rivals are both attacked in the state and pro-regime press and also courted with the prospect of sharing power. The latest to succumb to that temptation has been Vuk Draskovic's Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO).
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Ethnic Conflict, Government, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Yugoslavia

20. Independent Task Force Report: Reconstructing the Balkans

Author:
Charles A. Kupchan, Morton I. Abramowitz, and Albert Fishlow
Publication Date:
07-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The last of the six Balkan Wars of the twentieth century is over. But it is by no means certain that a durable peace is at hand. After vast death, destruction, and savagery lasting almost a decade can the peoples of the former Yugoslavia live together again in peace? If so, the region will require sustained help and support from the West. The United States and its European partners are in the midst of mustering the necessary resources and political will. There are numerous uncertainties complicating efforts to proceed with the reconstruction of the area. Whatever the international community may proclaim, the borders of Serbia, Kosovo, Bosnia, and Croatia could well change. The management of Kosovo's status and its relationship to Serbia is likely to produce serious tensions within the Alliance and between NATO and Russia. What politically will emerge from a beaten and traumatized Serbia no one can predict. Nor is it clear that Montenegro will remain as part of Yugoslavia, particularly if Milosevic continues to rule. An ethically fragile Macedonia has been badly weakened by the war and the inflow of three hundred thousand Kosovar deportees. Albania barely hangs together as a state. Neighboring Rumania and Bulgaria have avoided violence and begun to remake their societies, but they have suffered economically from the wars. The area of reconstruction is small and the population limited; the task at hand certainly is not of the dimensions of restoring post-war Europe. But the problems are daunting. Without security there will be no development. NATO forces will be needed indefinitely to keep the peace in Bosnia and Kosovo. Much more must be done to promote political and economic reform in the region, requiring vision and planning. The states of the region will first need urgent help to stabilize their economies and manage enormous humanitarian problems. They must also be able to envisage a better future, one that holds out the prospect of bringing them into Europe's political and economic mainstream. Realizing that goal will require profound changes in their economies and institutions as well as in their relationships with each other. Faced with these challenges, Western countries and a host of international institutions have begun to address how to foster the broad reconstruction of the area. The EU-sponsored stability pact, adopted in Cologne in June, is the beginning attempt at a multifaceted, coordinated approach to the problem. The G-8 has agreed on a broad program of financial assistance, and the EU has pledged 1.5 billion dollars for aid to Kosovo alone. Numerous follow-up conferences are already planned. Much more work has to be done to give reality and coherence to such efforts. Balkan reconstruction will be a protracted undertaking. It will require extremely difficult commodities – a comprehensive approach and the will, resources, and mechanisms to implement the effort. It is mostly to such a long term approach that this preliminary working paper addresses itself. It does not deal with the immediate requirements of refugee return and humanitarian assistance nor the urgent repair of human and material infrastructure. The World Bank and the IMF in cooperation with many other international organizations and interested countries are coordinating the assessment of needs and costs and have issued preliminary reports. The purpose of this working paper is to provide a broad political approach and to highlight the three key components of a comprehensive, long-term strategy: building security, integrating the region into the European Union, and fostering economic and political reform. For the purposes of this paper, we consider the region to be Serbia, Kosovo, Montenegro, Bosnia, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Albania, Croatia, and Rumania. This is somewhat arbitrary and these states are at different stages of political and economic development. The problems of Rumania and Bulgaria are quite different than Serbia's and Kosovo's; Croatia is much further advanced than next door Serbia and Bosnia. They all have to be dealt with separately, and no single state should hold back the progress of others in entering Europe. But they also face a collective future and the region will enjoy a lasting peace only if all its states leave the past behind and move decidedly to join the wider community.
Topic:
NATO, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, International Political Economy, and World Bank
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Bosnia, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Serbia, Bulgaria, Balkans, Macedonia, Albania, and Croatia