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161. Digital Media in the Arab World One Year After the Revolutions

Author:
Jeffrey Ghannam
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
The Arab region is experiencing a profound media shift. The year following the start of the Arab revolutions–in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and violent uprisings in Syria, Yemen, and Bahrain–was followed by continued repression and threats to the exercise of free expression online and offline. But the year also saw great strides in the numbers of Arabs across the region turning to social media platforms and the ascendancy of online engagement. This report traces and analyzes the enabling of tens of millions of individuals–as well as established news outlets–to attract wide global followings with Facebook and Twitter updates and YouTube videos about rapidly changing events. The widely diverse and pluralistic online communities in the Arab world are creating and sharing content, calling into question the future of the many state-owned or self-censored media that provide less in the way of engagement that Arab audiences have come to expect.
Topic:
Democratization, Politics, Science and Technology, Mass Media, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Arabia, Syria, Egypt, Bahrain, and Tunisia

162. Charting Transitions in the Middle East: Lessons Learned from Tunisia and Egypt

Author:
Leila Hilal
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
The Arab revolts have resulted in deposed heads of state in Yemen, Libya, Egypt and Tunisia. Of these countries the latter two—Egypt and Tunisia—saw mass street protestors quickly topple entrenched autocrats without significant violence or foreign intervention. One year on, Egypt is still ruled by elements of the Mubarak regime with vested interests in the former order. It is also racked by political battles and economic troubles that are threatening its transition. Tunisia, on the other hand, is moving steadily closer toward a potential democratic consolidation. What explains the differences? This commentary discusses the prior institutional characteristics of the two countries. It then examines three areas of early transitional choices that contributed to Tunisia's progress and undermined Egypt's. In identifying lessons learned it makes the case that oppositional movements should avoid constitutional and institutional vacuums, establish broadly representative civilian-led transitional planning mechanisms, and follow appropriately-timed, transparent electoral sequencing.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Egypt, and Tunisia

163. The Perception of Turkey in the Middle East 2012

Author:
Mensur Akgün and Sabiha Senyücel Gündoğar
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
The report entails the findings of the fourth annual survey conducted by TESEV Foreign Policy Programme in collaboration with KA Research between August 3- 28, 2012. As in previous years, the public opinion survey reveals interesting insights into the recent Middle Eastern viewpoints, perceptions and expectations. 2800 Respondents from 16 countries of the region reflect on Turkey’s role and regional challenges in the light of current happenings.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, Regional Cooperation, and Public Opinion
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Kuwait, Libya, Yemen, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, Qatar, Tunisia, Oman, and UAE

164. Iran within the Political Dynamics of the Middle East

Author:
Farhad Atai
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Center for Strategic Research (CSR)
Abstract:
Developments in the Middle East in the past decades, and especially in the past few years, have drawn the world's attention to this region. Never since the break-up of the Ottoman Empire at the beginning of the 20th century has the region been so volatile and explosive. While the Israeli-Palestinian conflict continues to have a deciding effect on the Middle East, other issues have appeared, further complicating the politics of the region. The stunning socio-political developments in the Arab world during the past year, which started in Tunisia and spread to Egypt, Yemen, Libya and Bahrain are still unfolding and will permanently change the Arab World. Where does Iran fit into the political dynamics of the Middle East in these turbulent times? This paper attempts to answer that question. After a review of the recent developments in the Arab world, it examines the Islamic Republic's position in the region in the light of the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979, the breakup of the Soviet Union and subsequent developments in Central Asia, the U.S.-led invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq as well as the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. The paper suggests that the changing geopolitics of the region has positioned Iran in a relatively stronger position vis-à-vis the Sunni-Shi'a debate. It further suggests that three decades after its Islamic Revolution, Iran has matured. This is especially true in the wake of the rising extremist tendencies and groups such as al-Qa'ida in the region. Once the shorter term issues are resolved, Iran can have a moderating influence on the dynamics of the region.
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, Iran, Central Asia, Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Arabia, Egypt, and Bahrain

165. Tribal Governance and Stability in Yemen

Author:
Nadwa Al-Dawsari
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The power-sharing deal signed by Yemen's President Ali Abdullah Saleh in November 2011 mentioned presidential elections, the formation of a national unity government, and a military commission to reform the armed forces. It was at best the first step in Yemen's recovery from the protracted turmoil and instability that wracked the country for months.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Democratization, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, and Arabia

166. Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula through the Framework of International Humanitarian Law

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
al Nakhlah
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
While Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has garnered significant media attention, its role in the Middle East raises legal issues that are not currently being explored. With AQAP having presences in Saudi Arabia and Yemen, questions arise as to which legal frameworks can be utilized: international humanitarian law, human rights law, or criminal law. This paper will discuss some of these issues, with a particular focus on international humanitarian law.
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, Arabia, and Saudi Arabia

167. Arc of Convergence: AQAP, Ansar al-Shari'a and the Struggle for Yemen

Author:
Christopher Swift
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
THE MAY 21, 2012, suicide attack on Yemeni soldiers parading in Sana`a's al-Sabin Square marked a turning point in Yemen's struggle against al-Qa`ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and its subsidiary, Ansaral-Shari` a. Coming two weeks after Yemeni President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi's pledge to purge terrorists from “every district, village, and place,” the perpetrators cast the bombing as a retaliatory strike. “The primary target of this blessed operation was the defense minister of the Sana`a regime and his corrupt entourage,” proclaimed Ansar al-Shari`a's Madad News Agency. “It came in response to the unjust war launched by the Sana` a regime's forces in cooperation with the American and Saudi forces.”
Topic:
Regime Change
Political Geography:
Yemen, Arabia, and Sinai Peninsula

168. Where There's a Will: Tackling the humanitarian crisis in Yemen

Author:
Abigael Baldoumas and Kelly Gilbride
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The Yemeni people are facing a worsening humanitarian crisis with more than ten million–44 per cent of the population–facing food insecurity. With the onset of the hunger season, many families have exhausted their coping strategies and are being driven deeper into poverty. Donors remain deeply divided over their approaches to the region's poorest country, thus delaying responses and hindering funding. As the crisis builds, donors must take steps to address immediate humanitarian needs as well as making long term commitments to promote development. The Friends of Yemen ministerial meeting in Riyadh offers a critical opportunity for donors to be decisive, creative and generous if they are to break the cycle of hunger and poverty in Yemen. Yemen's future depends upon reducing people's vulnerability and building resilience for the long term, breaking the hunger cycle and empowering people to realize their potential. Failure to act now will put more lives at risk and further entrench poverty in the country.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, Poverty, Food, and Famine
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, and Arabia

169. Yemen: Enduring Conflicts, Threatened Transition

Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
As messy as it has been and unfinished as it remains, Yemen's transition accomplished two critical goals: avoiding a potentially devastating civil war and securing the resignation of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who had ruled the impoverished country for over three decades. It also cracked the regime's foundations, while making it possible to imagine new rules of the game. Still, much remains in doubt, notably the scope and direction of change. The nation essentially has witnessed a political game of musical chairs, one elite faction swapping places with the other but remaining at loggerheads. Important constituencies – northern Huthi, southern Hiraak, some independent youth movements – feel excluded and view the transition agreement with scepticism, if not distain. Al-Qaeda and other militants are taking advantage of a security vacuum. Socio-economic needs remain unmet. The new government must rapidly show tangible progress (security, economic, political) to contain centrifugal forces pulling Yemen apart, while reaching out to stakeholders and preparing the political environment for inclusive national dialogue.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Civil War, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Yemen and Arabia

170. What Lies Beneath the "Arab Spring"

Author:
Reva Bhalla
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of International Security Affairs
Institution:
Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs
Abstract:
More than a year has passed since the fall of the region's most stalwart Arab leader unleashed a current of dissent throughout the Arab world. That unrest, which spread from the Maghreb to the Arabian Peninsula, was simplistically treated in the media as an organic expression of liberal democracy that seemingly had the power to knock off Arab authoritarians one by one. Today, however, the initial euphoria over the so-called “Arab Spring” has predictably given way to disillusionment. After sacrificing the Ben Ali regime, Tunisia's army and security establishment stand ready to intervene should the country's Islamist-filled legislature overstep its boundaries in challenging the relics of the ancien régime. In Egypt, many forget (or fail to realize altogether) that the military establishment exploited the demonstrations to destroy Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's dynastic succession plan. Even as it seeks more creative maneuvers to rule behind what is expected to be an enfeebled parliament, the Egyptian military elite will remain the ultimate arbiter of the state for the foreseeable future. In Libya, after a rare NATO-led military intervention played the instrumental role of driving Gaddafi and his family from power, the once-celebrated rebel forces are again being viewed as a ragtag assortment of militias vying for the spoils of war in the absence of a legitimate, much less democratic, political authority. In Yemen, Ali Abdullah Saleh has given up his presidential title for now under a Saudi-mediated power-sharing agreement with his rivals. Still, there is little to hide the fact that Saleh's regime, now led by his close family members, remains entrenched in the security, political and economic spheres of the state. Meanwhile, embattled Arab leaders are thankful for the distraction Syria has created as the latest flashpoint in the Middle East. Just as the Assad regime has proven unable to stamp out its domestic opposition, so too have Syria's still fractious, outgunned and outnumbered opposition forces been unable to overwhelm a largely united Alawite-dominated security and intelligence apparatus. Barring a foreign military intervention—something that no military power, particularly the United States, seems keen on—the Syrian regime can endure for some time to come, even as it becomes all the more dependent on Iran for its survival. The mainstream narrative regarding the Arab unrest has by and large failed to anticipate these developments. There is little predictive value in starting with an assumption that all demonstrations will lead to revolutions, and all revolutions to liberal democracies. Geopolitical context must also be applied. In particular, there are three underlying trends that began developing well before the start of the Arab unrest—and which can help to explain what has happened over the past year, and what to expect going forward.
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, Arabia, Syria, Egypt, and Arabian Peninsula