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1. Judging disparities: Recidivism risk, image motives and in-group bias on Wisconsin criminal courts

Author:
Ludovica Ciasullo and Martina Uccioli
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:
This paper studies racial in-group disparities in Wisconsin, which has one of the highest Black-to-White incarceration rate ratios among all U.S. states. The analysis is motivated by a model in which a judge may want to incarcerate more due to three factors: (1) when the defendant has higher recidivism risk and is more likely to commit future crimes; (2) when the defendant is from a different group (anti-out-group preferences); and (3) when the defendant is of the same group but that group is responsible for a majority of crimes (image motives). Further, a judge may have better information on recidivism risk due to two factors: (4) becoming more experienced, and (5) sharing the same group as the defendant. We take these ideas to new data on 1 million cases from Wisconsin criminal courts, 2005-2017. Using a recidivism risk score that we construct using machine learning tools to predict reoffense, we find evidence that judges do tend to incarcerate defendants with a higher recidivism risk (1). Consistent with judge experience leading to better information on defendant recidivism risk (4), we find that more experienced judges are more responsive in jailing defendants with a high recidivism risk score. Looking at racial disparities between majority (White) and minority (Black) judges and defendants, we find no evidence for anti-out-group bias (2). Consistent with image motives (3), we find that when the minority group is responsible for most crimes, minority-group judges are harsher on their in-group. Finally, consistent with judges having better information on recidivism risk for same-group defendants (5), we find that judges are more responsive to the recidivism risk score for defendants from the same group
Topic:
Law Enforcement, Courts, Incarceration, Structural Racism, and Criminal Recidivism
Political Geography:
North America, Wisconsin, and United States of America

2. Bearing the Brunt: Manufacturing Job Loss in the Great Lakes Region, 1995-2005

Author:
Howard Wial and Alec Friedhoff
Publication Date:
07-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Analysis of manufacturing employment and production in seven Great Lakes states and their metropolitan areas from 1995 through 2005 finds that: More than one-third of the nation's loss of manufacturing jobs between 2000 and 2005 occurred in seven Great Lakes states: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Between 1995 and 2005, the United States lost more than 3 million manufacturing jobs. Nearly all of this job loss occurred during the last five years, and 37.5 percent of the loss occurred in the seven Great Lakes states. Michigan lost the most manufacturing jobs between 2000 and 2005 (nearly 218,000), followed by Ohio, Illinois, and Pennsylvania. Despite these job losses, manufacturing remains a major driver of the nation's economy and the economy of the Great Lakes region. Because productivity was higher in manufacturing than in other sectors of the economy, in 2004, manufacturing accounted for a higher share of gross state product than its share of employment, both nationwide and in six of the seven states in the Great Lakes manufacturing belt. In addition, productivity in the manufacturing sector increased by 38 percent between 1997 and 2004, a much higher increase than the 24.4 percent growth in productivity for all non-farm businesses during that same time period. Manufacturing job losses were pervasive in Great Lakes metropolitan areas. All but one of the 25 largest manufacturing-dependent metropolitan areas in the Great Lakes region lost manufacturing jobs during the last decade (1995–2005), often at a faster rate than the United States as a whole. Chicago and Detroit lost the most manufacturing jobs in the last five years (over 100,000 jobs each), while Canton, OH, and Flint, MI, lost the greatest shares of manufacturing employment. The metropolitan areas in which manufacturing employment peaked between 1995 and 1997 tended to experience more severe manufacturing job losses between 1995 and 2005 than those in which manufacturing peaked later. The 13 metropolitan areas where manufacturing employment peaked between 1995 and 1997 saw an average 26.8 percent decline in manufacturing employment between 1995 and 2005. In the other 11 metropolitan areas where manufacturing employment peaked later, between 1998 and 2000, the average metropolitan area lost 18.9 percent of its manufacturing jobs during the decade. Manufacturing job losses were a major reason for slow overall job growth, and sometimes overall job losses, in Great Lakes metropolitan areas. Furthermore, employment gains in high-wage advanced service industries, which occurred in all but one of the 25 metropolitan areas studied, were not large enough to offset the loss of manufacturing jobs in most areas.
Topic:
Civil Society, Demographics, Economics, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
United States, New York, Pennsylvania, Chicago, Ohio, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan

3. The Vital Center: A Federal-State Compact to Renew the Great Lakes Region

Author:
Britany Affolter-Caine and Justin Austin
Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The Great Lakes region of the United States is a unique economic, social, and cultural area made up of all or part of 12 states, including the western portions of New York, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia; northern Kentucky; all of Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Illinois, and Wisconsin; and eastern Minnesota, Iowa, and Missouri. Home to 97 million people, this region is defined by a shared geography and natural resources, a dynamic political and economic history, and strong principles of social organization that together have shaped its growth and development. One of the largest industrial production centers and consumer marketplaces in the world, this highly urbanized “mega-region” is a vital global hub of economic activity and growth.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
United States, New York, North America, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, West Virginia, North Kentucky, East Minnesota, Iowa, and Missouri