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11. The European Union’s major enlargement to the East and Western Balkans

Author:
Vicente Palacio
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
The geopolitical urgency created in Europe by the Russian invasion and the war in Ukraine has moved the project of a ‘major enlargement’ to the Western Balkans (Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia) and to the East (Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia) at the top of the European political agenda. This new enlargement could transform the EU in a fundamental way. After the Informal European Council of June 2002, the recent informal European Council summit held in Granada on 6 October under the Spanish Presidency of the Council of the EU expressed consensus on the intention to undertake that enlargement. That set off a long process in which this ‘major enlargement’ needs to be addressed in terms of four aspects: how it is done (institutions and reforms); how and how much is invested in it (resources); what it is invested in (policies) and where it is invested (geographical areas).
Topic:
European Union, Geopolitics, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Western Balkans

12. Pandemic Management: Lessons Learned For a Safer Future

Author:
Srdan Hercigonja and Gorana Pebić
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
What are the most dominant post-pandemic conclusions, and what do the latest research results on pandemic management in Serbia and the Western Balkans show? Read all about it in the newest analysis made by BCBP. The analysis concludes that the main feature of the pandemic management in Serbia is the dominance of politics and the political interests of the powerholders over expertise. Although there were moments when expertise and containing the spread of the virus were the primary goals of the management (particularly at the very beginning), the major decisions were made based on expected political consequences. This approach towards the administration is also evident in the way in which the government and state officials communicated about the pandemic and what measures were being adopted: from a spread of panic and imposing some of the most rigorous restrictions in Europe to complete silence from officials about the pandemic situation and lifting all measures. The second main characteristic of the pandemic management is non-transparency, of course of actions in various fields: giving false statements about the numbers of infected and deceased people from COVID-19, non-transparent procurement of medical equipment and vaccines, disclosed agreements with third countries and private companies. The pandemic management should have included experts from different areas, such as communicology and psychology, while organizational aspects of the management should have included plans for other vulnerable groups and patients who were totally neglected throughout the course of the pandemic. This analysis report was made possible with support from the Rockefeller Brothers Fund (RBF). The opinions and views of the authors do not necessarily state or reflect those of the RBF.
Topic:
Crisis Management, Transparency, Public Health, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe, Serbia, and Western Balkans

13. Balkan Csárdás: Hungarian Foreign Policy Dance

Author:
Srđan Cvijić, Ivana Ranković, Luka Šterić, Maja Bjeloš, and Marko Drajic
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
Since Orbán reassumed power in 2010, the Hungarian government has taken a more active role in the Western Balkans. In a short time period, it has increased its political and economic footprint. This paper is one of few all-encompassing efforts to explain Hungarian policy and involvement in the Western Balkans, and it attempts to do so by asking the following questions: What interests and strategic considerations drive Hungarian foreign and trade policy in the region? Who formulates foreign policy priorities in Hungary and what is the interplay between formal and informal actors? What economic interests shape Hungarian foreign policy in the region? How much has Hungarian foreign policy in the region changed as a result of the war in Ukraine? To answer these questions, this paper is divided into four main sections. The first focuses on Hungary’s foreign policy strategy in the region. The second, as a special case study, investigates the effects of Orbán’s minority politics in Serbia’s Autonomous Province of Vojvodina (Vajdaság in Hungarian). The third, researching the Hungarian media empire in the region, and finally the fourth focuses on the economic drivers of Hungary’s approach in the region. The paper builds upon numerous secondary sources and online and in-person interviews conducted with 19 government representatives, politicians, foreign policy experts, scholars, and journalists from Hungary, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Trade, Regional Economy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Serbia, Hungary, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Western Balkans

14. Wings of Change: The Coming Drone Proliferation in the Western Balkans

Author:
Filip Ejdus and Vuk Vuksanović
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
What are contributing factors to the rise of drones in the Balkans and how might they change the military balance of power in the region? Find out in the BCSP analysis written by the BCSP Senior Researcher Vuk Vuksanović, and Filip Ejdus, a professor in security studies at the Faculty of Political Science, University of Belgrade and the Member of the Executive Board at the BCSP. In May 2023, Turkey delivered to Kosovo five Bayraktar TB2 attack drones to be used by its Kosovo Security Forces (KSF). The transaction was done seven months after the signing of the contract, and as Kosovo was close to hosting a large US-led military exercise, Defender Europe 23. This transaction might signify things to come, that is, the proliferation of armed drones in the Western Balkans. The reasons for this potential proliferation of armed drones are multiple. First, they include that drones are becoming an unavoidable hallmark of the global security landscape, used by superpowers like the US and in various regional conflicts worldwide. Second, the fact that Serbia is ahead of its neighbours in the number of drones it operates creates an impulse with its neighbours to match that capability. Third, the extant regional arms control regime in the Western Balkans has loopholes related to the more modern weapons systems like drones. Fourth, the acquisition of weapon systems like drones is a powerful political instrument for local nations to increase their regional and international bargaining power, as well as for the powers supplying them to boost their influence in the Balkans. Finally, investing in armed forces, including acquiring modern systems like drones, is a powerful method of domestic political promotion for the local elites. This combination of factors makes regional drone proliferation in the Western Balkans highly probable.
Topic:
Weapons, Drones, Military, and Threat Assessment
Political Geography:
Serbia and Western Balkans

15. Enabling Just Change in the International Health Care Governance

Author:
Srdan Hercigonja
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
This publication comes after months of research conducted by the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy, in collaboration with its partners in the Western Balkans region - Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (Prishtina), Centre for Security Studies (Sarajevo), Institute Alternative (Podgorica), Institute for Democracy and Mediation (Tirana) and Institute for Democracy “Societas Civilis” (Skopje). The first stage focused on desk research over the course of nine months. Extensive desk research followed, with semi-structured interviews with public health experts conducted in order to assess the pandemic management in each of the Western Balkan countries – North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Kosovo, Albania, and Bosnia and Herzegovina. The second stage of the research was focused on the reform of the global health governance system and structures. This part of the research implied semi-structured interviews and discussions with global health experts, as well as with experts in global governance. The baseline for the set of recommendations presented in this paper is that pandemics remain one of the most serious threats to human, national, and global security. Therefore, fundamental reforms of global health governance must be implemented in order for the global society to be better prepared for the next pandemic. Two external experts also contributed to this paper.
Topic:
Security, Health, Governance, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, Albania, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, and Western Balkans

16. Messy Diplomacy: Western Balkan Countries Facing the Gaza Conflict

Author:
Srđan Cvijić and Vuk Vuksanović
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
The ongoing war that Israel is waging in Gaza against Hamas is one of the most consequential conflicts with serious political implications worldwide. The Gaza conflict has already diverted the world’s attention from what has been the most dominant international conflict in the past year and a half: the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Many countries in the Western Balkans are conflicted about what diplomatic stance to take on the Gaza war, primarily whether they should support Israel or Palestine or remain neutral since their decision-making will have to balance their domestic public, as well as their ties with Israel, Muslim countries and, most importantly, the US and the EU. The vote taken on October 26 in the UN General Assembly (hereinafter: UNGA) on the resolution that called for a truce between Israel and Hamas with a strong emphasis on humanitarian factors demonstrated how conflicted the Western Balkan countries were on the current conflict in Gaza. The pattern of division among the Western Balkan countries on this occasion somewhat diverges from the votes cast in different UN fora in the past decade. Whereas Albania and North Macedonia have continued with their previous positions when it comes to their foreign policy toward the conflict in the Middle East, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and Serbia have displayed an interesting change.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Hamas, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Western Balkans