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1. The European Union Growth Plan for the Western Balkans: A reality test for EU enlargement

Author:
Valbona Zeneli, Richard Grieveson, Isabelle Ioannides, and Dimitar Bechev
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The European Union (EU) Growth Plan for the Western Balkans aims to integrate the region into the EU single market, enhance regional cooperation, implement significant governance and rule of law reforms, and boost EU financial support. In doing so, the EU seeks to foster economic development, political stability, and security in the region amid rising geopolitical tensions, while accelerating the Western Balkans’ EU accession process. The Growth Plan holds substantial potential to reinvigorate the enlargement process and counter the stagnation felt by both the EU and the region. Strong points include: Tangible benefits before full accession: Providing stronger incentives for reform. Active involvement of regional governments: Increasing buy-in from local leaders, who must submit their own reform agendas. Enhanced economic integration, greater access to the EU market, increased EU funding, and reforms to governance and the rule of law: Stimulating investment, promoting economic growth, and raising living standards. These improvements would bring the Western Balkans closer to the economic success seen in the Central and Eastern European countries in the EU over the past two decades. Moreover, fostering deeper regional cooperation will not only deliver an economic boost but also contribute to political normalization. If successful, the plan will bolster the EU’s political influence in the region, countering the impact of external actors and encouraging much-needed nearshoring investment from EU firms. However, the plan faces several challenges: Enforceability: Although conditionality is rigorous, with disbursement of funds tied to strict conditions to prevent misuse, there are concerns regarding its enforceability. The European Court of Auditors has already raised reservations. Quantity: Additionally, the financial support offered is significantly lower than what EU member states in Southeast Europe receive. The reforms required for fund access and single market integration are substantial and will demand significant political will and institutional capacity—both of which have been lacking in the region at times over the past two decades. The success of the growth plan will largely depend on its implementation. The EU must ensure rigorous enforcement of conditionality, reward positive reform steps, and increase funding for countries making progress. Civil society in the Western Balkans should be engaged as much as possible to foster broader support and transparency. The EU should also leverage the plan to align with its broader geopolitical and geoeconomic interests, particularly in strengthening its strategic autonomy. Additionally, the Growth Plan should be fully integrated with the EU’s competitiveness, green, and digital transition agendas. For their part, Western Balkans leaders should seize the increased agency provided by the plan. They must take ownership of the reforms they propose, participate actively in EU meetings, and design their reform agendas to deliver better living standards and deeper EU integration for their populations.
Topic:
Markets, Reform, European Union, and Enlargement
Political Geography:
Europe and Western Balkans

2. Intra-Western Balkans dynamics: stocktaking and ways ahead

Author:
Armin Steinbach, Nina Vujanović, and Anna Fiore
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
In the context of the push by the European Union for regional integration in the Western Balkans, this paper explores the barriers to, and prospects for, deeper intra-Western Balkan economic relationships. First, it addresses the pronounced bilateral economic relationships between Western Balkan countries associated with historical path-dependencies. Second, by comparing the Central European Free Trade Agreement with Stabilisation and Association Agreements that the EU has with Western Balkan countries, it identifies areas of less economic integration under the former. Third, it focuses on intra-Western Balkan trade barriers and how the associated costs influence regional integration. Finally, the paper describes the structures of Western Balkan economies and how much they contribute to regional exports through domestic value added. The paper emphasises the importance of regulatory alignment for reducing trade barriers and the role of funds under the EU Growth Plan for the Western Balkans for investment in transport infrastructure within the region. It finds that the Central European Free Trade Agreement and Common Regional Market should focus on untapped potential, especially in the liberalisation of capital, services and movement for employment. Infrastructure issues, trade logistics and the tackling of technical barriers to trade should feature prominently on the policy agenda.
Topic:
Governance, Macroeconomics, Trade, and Trade Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and Western Balkans

3. Undoing a Hybrid Regime: What Lessons Can Be Extracted from the Case of North Macedonia?

Author:
Nazif Mandaci
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
This study primarily aims to draw attention to the role of the European Union (EU) and the United States (US) in North Macedonia’s1 transition from a hybrid regime to a standard democracy from 2015 to the present. The stability of the country has been of paramount importance for the Western interests, thus the EU and US have continuously supported successive governments to uphold the de-facto powersharing system that prevailed since its independence in the early 1990s. By employing Levitsky and Way’s theoretical framework of linkage and leverage, this study aims to elucidate the decisive roles played by the EU and the US in cultivating the conditions necessitated for North Macedonia’s gradual democratic transition after 2015. To do this it addresses political developments in North Macedonia, discusses the problems that aroused during this transition period, which are inherited in a lack of democratic culture and widespread corruption, and finally, suggests that as the Macedonia example demonstrated, EU support and tutelage is critical during such challenging transitions.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Corruption, Democratization, European Union, and Hybrid Regime
Political Geography:
Europe, United States of America, North Macedonia, and Western Balkans

4. Kosovo in Russian Foreign Policy- Discourse Fostering Instability in Kosovo and Countering Euro-Atlantic Integration

Author:
Ramadan Ilazi, Ardit Orana, and Jeta Loshaj
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
Russian influence and interests in the Western Balkans are primarily centered around Serbia. According to a 2024 survey by the International Republican Institute (IRI), for Kosovar citizens, after Serbia (83%), Russia (8%) is seen as the main threat to the country, while 87% say that the country’s foreign policy should only be pro-European Union and pro-West, and 59% say that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is completely unjustified. Main takeaways from this paper include: Russia deploys state-controlled media (RT, Sputnik) and partners with Iranian outlets to spread narratives portraying Kosovo as a failed state, full of instability. Russia capitalizes on deep cultural, religious, and political ties with Serbia to maintain influence in the Balkans, utilizing ties with the the Serbian Orthodox Church and with Serbian elites to the detriment of Kosovo. There are indications that Russia had prior knowledge of or involvement in the Banjska terrorist attack in Kosovo, aimed at escalating tensions. By stirring instability in Kosovo, Russia aims to divert Western attention and resources away from Ukraine, creating a multi-front challenge for NATO and the EU.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Strategic Interests, Instability, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Serbia, and Western Balkans

5. How external actors seek to influence the Western Balkans?

Author:
Harun Nuhanović
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
The Western Balkans, a region with a complex history and significant geopolitical value, finds itself at the crossroads of influence from major external powers—Russia, China, and Turkey. Each of these countries extends its reach through various domains such as economics, culture, religion, politics, and security, exploiting both state and non-state mechanisms to cement their influence. This report delves into the strategies employed by these state actors, highlighting their individual and collective impacts on the strategic landscape of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Serbia, and Montenegro. The findings reveal how these external influences pose both opportunities and significant risks, shaping the regional dynamics and the future integration of these states into larger international frameworks such as the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, European Union, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Turkey, Kosovo, and Western Balkans

6. The Spillover Effect: The Gaza Conflict and Potential Ramifications to the Western Balkans

Author:
Vuk Vuksanović
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
This report outlines potential security and geopolitical risks for the Western Balkans stemming from the war in Gaza. While none of these security challenges are inevitable, they are possible. Depending on whether the conflict in Gaza continues in its current form or whether it escalates in intensity and number of belligerents, there are at least three potential ramifications for the Western Balkans. The first concerns the potential radicalisation in the local Muslim communities involving anti-Semitism and acts of violence that could disrupt harmony between local religious communities. The second concerns the risk that if the conflict expands to engulf Iran and Hezbollah and potentially other regional actors, there is a risk that this security rivalry between Middle Eastern players like Israel and Iran will spread to the Western Balkans. Thirdly, depending on the geographical scope and duration of the conflict, there is a potentially high risk of a new refugee crisis impacting the region.
Topic:
Security, Radicalization, Geopolitics, Refugees, 2023 Gaza War, and Antisemitism
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Western Balkans

7. Russian Propaganda in Serbia and the Western Balkans: The Case of Telegram Channels

Author:
Polina Greisman
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
This study is based on the analysis of open data obtained from the Internet, dealing with Telegram channels that are directly connected to official Russian media. Serbia is no exception to the list of countries whose internal affairs found themselves on the receiving end of Russian government interference. However, due to the friendly relations between Russia and Serbia, these facts are rarely made public. Also, not all of them are obvious, at first glance, as propaganda and interference. That is why we will look at this issue in this study and, using the example of Serbia, find out what methods of propaganda and intervention Russia is using in a country that can be described as “friendly.” This study shows the propaganda tools that Russia is using in the Balkans, particularly in Serbia and Montenegro. It also contains an analysis of propaganda narratives that appear in the Russian media operating in the Balkans, and their comparison with propaganda narratives in the media that operate in Russia.
Topic:
Media, Propaganda, Disinformation, and Telegram
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Serbia, and Western Balkans

8. The Prospective of the Western Balkans to the EU Membership: Challenges and Possible Ways Forward

Author:
Anila Jelesijević
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The integration of the Western Balkan countries into the European Union (EU) remains a slow process. The EU’s focus on the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia has negatively affected these countries’ motivation to proceed with the reforms needed to join the EU. Their aim is to become part of the EU family, but a real commitment and productive interaction from both sides that will lead to such an integration is an essential requirement. This Geneva Paper aims to develop recommendations for what can be done to allow the Western Balkan countries to join the EU as soon as possible.
Topic:
Reform, European Union, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Europe and Western Balkans

9. Wedged between East and West – The chances of an interest-based Hungarian foreign policy and the war in Ukraine

Author:
Andrea Schmidt
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Hungarian foreign policy has been in the international spotlight, raising doubts about its direction. The purpose of this article is to highlight the contradictions between an interest-based and a value-based foreign policy. A theoretical introduction is followed by a brief analysis of the elements of a pragmatic foreign policy. At the same time, the second part of the paper presents a short case study from the Western Balkans. The Hungarian position on two countries, Kosovo and Serbia, will be analysed, not forgetting that these two countries are examples of the changes that have taken place in the relations between Hungary and Serbia. Despite earlier nationalist tensions, Serbia has become Hungary's almost sole ally in the region, putting the minority issue in the background and adopting a pragmatic approach. In this essay, we will also try to identify the considerations that guided Hungarian diplomacy in its position towards the West. Finally, we will discuss the extent to which the original goal of "occupying Brussels" was realistic and the consequences of Hungary's pragmatic foreign policy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Conflict, Pragmatism, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Hungary, and Western Balkans

10. The changing dynamics of the Western Balkans on the road to European Union membership: an update

Author:
Marek Dabrowski and Luca Léry Moffat
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
The slow pace of European Union enlargement to the Western Balkans can be attributed to EU member countries losing their political appetite for further enlargement in the 2010s and early 2020s, and to the fact that Western Balkan countries have failed to make visible progress in meeting the criteria for EU accession The income per capita convergence of Western Balkan countries towards the German level (as a proxy for the EU) has been rather slow, with some acceleration in the second half of the 2010s and early 2020s. However, Western Balkan countries continue to suffer from several socio-economic vulnerabilities, including high unemployment rates (especially of young people) and low rates of participation of women in the workforce. After the beginning of the war in Ukraine in 2022, the EU gave higher political priority to further enlargement. It opened a new eastern front of potential enlargement (Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia) and activated the stalled accession process in the Western Balkans. Bosnia and Herzegovina obtained candidate status in December 2022 and was approved for accession negotiations in March 2024. Accession negotiations with Albania and North Macedonia were started in July 2022. With the new government in Montenegro from the end of 2023, the accession negotiation with this most advanced candidate country moved forward. Overcoming the legacy of the tragic conflicts in the 1990s is another key geopolitical challenge in the region. This involves the normalisation of Serbia-Kosovo relations and the reconciliation process inside Bosnia and Herzegovina. In the economic sphere, speeding up income per capita convergence with the EU requires further domestic economic reforms, accelerating intra-regional economic integration and creating new EU initiatives to support growth and social cohesion in the Western Balkans. Accelerating EU accession negotiations with indicative target dates, at least for frontrunners, can reduce the perception of geopolitical and economic uncertainty and stimulate foreign direct investment inflows.
Topic:
Economics, Governance, Budget, European Union, Institutions, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and Western Balkans