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11. April/May 2021 Issue

Author:
Audrey Alexander, Brian Hughes, Cynthia Miller-Idriss, Tim Lister, Abdul Sayed, Tore Hamming, and Aaron Edwards
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Ten years ago, the United States launched Operation Neptune Spear, the May 2011 raid on Usama bin Ladin’s compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan, which resulted in the death of al-Qa`ida’s founder. In this issue, CTC Sentinel speaks with Admiral (Retired) William McRaven and Nicholas Rasmussen to compare vantage points of the operation from a military and policy perspective. A decade after the raid, the operation continues to offer practitioners, policymakers, and researchers valuable lessons for the future. While some of their reflections pertain to counterterrorism policies and practices, others speak to the importance of leadership at times of uncertainty, discipline, interagency collaboration, and most of all, commitment to a shared mission. According to Rasmussen what makes it “such a compelling story at the 10-year mark is that it has such an important operational story to tell, but also … it’s a remarkable window into presidential decision-making under extraordinary conditions of uncertainty and risk.” McRaven stresses the mission was about justice for the victims of 9/11 and other al-Qa`ida attacks: “We were honored to have the opportunity to go on the mission, but make no mistake about it, this was about 500,000 plus soldiers, sailors, airmen, Marines that took this fight to al-Qa`ida.” In this month’s feature article, Brian Hughes and Cynthia Miller-Idriss assess that the storming of the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021, provided a boost to far-right extremists who seek total political and social collapse, an objective sometimes referred to as “accelerationism.” They write that “although many disagreements and personality clashes continue to emerge within and among groups since the storming of the Capitol, there are increasing indications that the typically fractious world of the extreme far-right is becoming more unified toward an objective of overthrowing the country’s prevailing political and social order.” Tim Lister examines the jihadi threat landscape in Mozambique in the wake of an attack by Islamic State-aligned militants on the town of Palma in March 2021. He writes: “for four days, they were rampant, killing at least dozens of local people and destroying much of the town’s infrastructure, including banks, a police station, and food aid warehouses. The attack reverberated around the world because Palma was home to hundreds of foreign workers, most of them contractors for the Total liquefied natural gas (LNG) project on the nearby Afungi Peninsula.” Abdul Sayed and Tore Hamming warn that “after reabsorbing a number of splinter groups, and addressing internal tensions,” the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) has “intensified its campaign of terrorism in Pakistan and is again growing in strength.” Aaron Edwards argues a new approach toward security in Northern Ireland is necessary in the wake of the April 2021 loyalist violence.
Topic:
Military Affairs, Taliban, Counter-terrorism, Violence, 9/11, Jihad, and January 6
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Mozambique, United States of America, and Northern Ireland

12. Dealing with Violence in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Author:
Herman J. Cohen
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
Editor’s Note: American Diplomacy Journal asked several foreign policy commentators to address the significance of growing chaos in many parts of the world, as failed and failing states are increasingly unable to perform the fundamental functions of the sovereign nation-state. This is one of five articles looking at those concerns. Because of its vast size, about equal to the U.S. east of the Mississippi, and its large deposits of strategic minerals, the Democratic Republic of the Congo is of special interest to American and western national security. In the current rush to develop renewable energy, for example, the minerals cobalt and lithium are essential. The DRC is the most important source of these minerals outside of Russia. The DRC is also one of the few countries that produces columbite and tantalum that are necessary for the world’s portable phones. The DRC is also host to the second largest tropical rain forest in the world after the Amazon. Preservation of this carbon sink is essential to the worldwide effort to limit global warming. The maintenance of stability in the DRC, a country that has seen long periods of instability in its sixty-year history, is therefore an international priority. With the end of the Kabila regime in the Democratic Republic of the Congo came new hopes for peace and progress in one of Africa’s most historically violent and corrupt nations. Yet since President Felix Tshisekedi’s administration formally assumed power in January 2019, the eastern DRC has seen thousands of murders and kidnappings, in a dramatic escalation of violence. The second quarter of 2021 was the deadliest in recent history, according to the nonprofit Kivu Security Tracker: 564 killings over just the past three months. Hundreds of discrete militias and insurgencies operate in the area – rendering a negotiated settlement unlikely – but the single worst offender is the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), a decades-old Ugandan group responsible for 37% of civilian killings, far more than any other faction. President Tshisekedi pledged to “definitively exterminate” the ADF during a “final offensive” shortly after his inauguration, but so far this initiative has been met with failure, while massacres and other human rights abuses increase in frequency and brutality. With international aid dwindling under pandemic pressures, how can the Tshisekedi administration rein in the ADF and other militant groups, and get the violence under control? Insurgencies can be intractable even for the world’s largest and best equipped militaries. But Congo’s militants have three unique advantages: a steady source of finance, infighting in Congo’s civilian government, and corrupt allies in the Congolese armed forces (FARDC).
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, National Security, Insurgency, Natural Resources, and Violence
Political Geography:
Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and United States of America

13. Memories of the U.S. Legation in Budapest 1945-47

Author:
Scott R. Schoenfeld
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
Editor’s note: The author lived in Budapest in the immediate post-war period while his father, H.F. Arthur Schoenfeld, was U.S. Minister to Hungary 1945-47. As an eight-year-old, he experienced the pervasive Russian military presence in the heavily damaged city. The house the family lived in has been the residence of U.S. ambassadors ever since. These excerpts from his unpublished memoir of the early days of the U.S. Legation have been edited for length. We arrived just days after hostilities ended in Hungary and less than three months after the Soviets’ long winter siege of Budapest, which damaged or destroyed almost every building in the city. Surprisingly, the house did not seem in bad condition when we moved in. In my bedroom, the occupying Russian troops had lit a fire in the washbasin to warm themselves. This had heavily scorched the wall and blackened the ceiling. Some of the large classical paintings that hung in the downstairs rooms had been bayoneted. The Russians had driven hooks in the dining room walls to tether their horses, but that was pretty much the worst of it. Outside was a different story. The house was situated near the route of the main Soviet military thrust into the city in the last days of the siege. Two German soldiers were buried in shallow graves on the hillside just a few yards behind the house. In the garden field below and in front of the house were the graves of twelve Russian soldiers killed in the fight. We were told that the bodies had been wrapped in the house curtains and stacked for two or three days in the lower entry hall of the house awaiting burial. Above the driveway was a large cave hollowed out of the steep hillside where civilians had taken refuge.
Topic:
Cold War, Diplomacy, History, Violence, and Memoir
Political Geography:
Hungary and United States of America

14. Book Talk. "There Is Nothing for You Here" by Fiona Hill

Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
The Harriman Institute
Abstract:
lease join the Harriman Institute and the Institute for the Study of Human Rights for a book talk by Fiona Hill, author of There Is Nothing for You Here: Finding Opportunity in the Twenty-First Century (Mariner Books, 2021). The talk will be chaired by David L. Phillips (ISHR) with Alexander Cooley (Harriman Institute) as discussant and interviewer. In There Is Nothing for You Here, a celebrated foreign policy expert and key impeachment witness reveals how declining opportunity has set America on the grim path of modern Russia—and draws on her personal journey out of poverty, as well as her unique perspectives as an historian and policy maker, to show how we can return hope to our forgotten places. Fiona Hill grew up in a world of terminal decay. The last of the local mines had closed, businesses were shuttering, and despair was etched in the faces around her. Her father urged her to get out of their blighted corner of northern England: “There is nothing for you here, pet,” he said. The coal-miner’s daughter managed to go further than he ever could have dreamed. She studied in Moscow and at Harvard, became an American citizen, and served three U.S. Presidents. But in the heartlands of both Russia and the United States, she saw troubling reflections of her hometown and similar populist impulses. By the time she offered her brave testimony in the first impeachment inquiry of President Trump, Hill knew that the desperation of forgotten people was driving American politics over the brink—and that we were running out of time to save ourselves from Russia’s fate. In this powerful, deeply personal account, she shares what she has learned, and shows why expanding opportunity is the only long-term hope for our democracy. Fiona Hill is the Robert Bosch Senior Fellow at the Center on the United States and Europe in the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution. From 2017 to 2019, she served as deputy assistant to the president and senior director for European and Russian affairs on the National Security Council. From 2006 to 2009, she served as national intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia at the National Intelligence Council. She has researched and published extensively on issues related to Russia, the Caucasus, Central Asia, regional conflicts, energy, and strategic issues. Coauthor of Mr. Putin: Operative in the Kremlin and The Siberian Curse: How Communist Planners Left Russia Out in the Cold, she holds a master's degree in Soviet studies and a doctorate in history from Harvard University and a master's in Russian and modern history from St. Andrews University in Scotland. She also has pursued studies at Moscow's Maurice Thorez Institute of Foreign Languages. Hill is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and lives in the Washington, DC, area.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, Violence, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, North America, and United States of America

15. March 2020 Issue

Author:
Blyth Crawford, Florence Keen, Raffaello Pantucci, Colin P. Clarke, Lorenzo Vidino, Jon Lewis, Andrew Mines, and Christopher Anzalone
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Far-right terror is going global, propelled to a significant degree by an online ecosystem of extremists posting in English. Since 2018, attackers have targeted synagogues in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania; the towns of Poway, California, and Halle, Germany; mosques in Christchurch, New Zealand; and a Walmart in El Paso, Texas. In this month’s feature article, Blyth Crawford and Florence Keen examine the February 19, 2020, far-right terrorist attack that targeted shisha bar customers in the German town of Hanau and led to the death of nine victims. They write that the influences on the deceased Hanau attacker Tobias Rathjen were “a combination of traditional far-right, race-based, and anti-immigration narratives, alongside several more obscure conspiracy theories.” They argue that a common denominator between the Hanau attack and the aforementioned attacks in the United States, New Zealand, and Germany “is the perpetrators’ shared adherence to the ‘Great Replacement’ conspiracy narrative … which perceives the cultural and biological integrity of the white race to be endangered by increased levels of (non-white) immigration and the stagnation of white birth rates.” In our ongoing “A View from the CT Foxhole” series, Raffaello Pantucci interviews Jonathan Evans, who served as the Director General of the U.K. Security Service MI5 between 2007 and 2013. Colin Clarke examines the issues raised by the December 6, 2019, terrorist attack by the Saudi Air Force Officer Mohammed Alshamrani, which killed three U.S. Navy sailors at Naval Air Station Pensacola in Florida. He writes, “In early February 2020, al-Qa`ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) claimed responsibility for the attack. It is not clear yet whether the group had a direct role in the attack, but if it did, it would make the shooting the first deadly terrorist attack on U.S. soil since 9/11 directed by a foreign terrorist organization.” By analyzing “all related-court cases since 2013,” Lorenzo Vidino, Jon Lewis, and Andrew Mines find that “save for a few exceptions, the vast majority of U.S.-based Islamic State supporters left a remarkably small financial footprint. Most, in fact, simply relied on personal savings to pay the small costs required for their activities.” Christopher Anzalone examines al-Shabaab’s PSYOPS (psychological operations) messaging, which he argues “takes advantage of the lack of transparency in certain instances from its opponents, including some governments, and the demand by the international news media for details from on the ground, with the group framing itself as a reliable source of on-the-ground information.”
Topic:
Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Media, Islamic State, Violence, Far Right, and Al Shabaab
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

16. Is a Plan B Needed to Save Afghanistan?

Author:
Marvin G. Weinbaum, Saad Mohseni, Anthony H. Cordesman, Muqaddesa Yourish, David Sedney, and Ali Jalali
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
The future of Afghanistan’s constitutionally liberal democratic system is very much at issue. On its survival rests the aspiration of the greatest number of its people, the deep investment of the international community in the country’s stability and wellbeing, and ultimately the security of the region and beyond. Negotiations are beginning in what is certain to be a lengthy process that may in the name of a compromise trade away social and economic gains realized over nearly two decades. Afghanistan has additionally to cope with the disengagement of foreign forces just at a time when their leverage militarily and diplomatically could be critical. In the absence of a verifiable ceasefire, the country confronts a prospect of exploding violence and possible descent into chaos. Can Afghanistan pull itself together to not only protect its achievements but to overcome past errors? Should Afghans and their international partners think about formulating a Plan B to save the republic while striving for true reconciliation with the insurgency? The Middle East Institute is pleased to host a panel of experts to discuss these questions and more.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Political stability, Domestic Politics, and Violence
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and United States of America

17. The U.S. Presidential Election: Managing the Risks of Violence

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The 2020 U.S. presidential election presents risks not seen in recent history. It is conceivable that violence could erupt during voting or protracted ballot counts. Officials should take extra precautions; media and foreign leaders should avoid projecting a winner until the outcome is certain.
Topic:
Elections, Conflict, Violence, Voting, Election Dispute, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

18. Anatomy of a Revolution

Author:
Sydney Wise
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:
School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:
The fight against racialized violence in the U.S. prison and policing system has characterized the last fifty years of the struggle for racial justice. In 2020, new momentum marks a historic moment.
Topic:
Race, Discrimination, Social Justice, Violence, and Justice
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

19. The World Is Watching the United States

Author:
Diana Bartelli Carlin
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:
School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:
The United States is facing a perfect storm that puts it in the headlights of its counterparts’ world views.
Topic:
Governance, Radicalization, Leadership, Discrimination, Violence, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Racism
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

20. The Best and Worst States for Women: The US Women, Peace and Security Index 2020

Author:
Peace and Security (GIWPS) Georgetown Institute for Women
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
Abstract:
The US WPS Index offers the most comprehensive measurement of women’s rights and opportunities across 50 states and the District of Columbia. It goes beyond women’s inclusion in the economy and politics to capture key aspects of justice and legal protections, as well as women’s security against violence in their homes and in their communities.
Topic:
Security, Politics, Law, Women, Economy, Violence, Justice, Inclusion, and Gender
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America