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191. A World Larger Than Trump’s: China’s

Author:
Ferry de Kerckhove
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:
While China's climb towards global, superpower status has now been underway for decades and is accelerating rapidly, that ascent is being helped enormously by the crisis of American leadership exemplified by Trump. This should be a major concern for the Unites States and the rest of the world. Through his “concession speech” at the United Nations on September 19, Trump has allowed a rekindling of the concept of spheres of influence. In Asia, China represents a model many hope to emulate to bring their people out of poverty. With it, for governments, comes the attraction of power unfettered by the shenanigans of democracy. In Europe, the U.S. foreign policy dearth has had allies looking for a new paradigm, order, stability and a minimum of predictability. China has taken over the number one rank as a donor or investing country in Africa and expects to invest half a trillion dollars in Latin America. The U.S. continues to exercise considerable influence over events, lead the fight against terrorism, brokers negotiations between foes, dominates a large chunk of the world economy, leads on innovations, and is the world’s preeminent military power. But under Trump, beneath all these evidences, confidence in the U.S. has been broken and uncertainty prevails.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Power Politics, Geopolitics, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

192. Improving Mexico’s Economic Competitiveness Through Security Cooperation

Author:
Eugenio Weigend Vargas
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:
The United States and Mexico share more than one of the longest borders in the world; they have important economic, social, and political ties as well. The two countries share a complex history that is marked by both war and cooperation, competition and collaboration. As a result, issues that arise in one country directly affect the other.1 President Donald Trump, both as a candidate and as president, has cast a bright light on U.S.-Mexico relations and has been public with his views on the relationship. Among President Trump’s numerous assertions, his three main points of discussion have been: having a secure border;2 dismantling transnational organized crime;3 and assuring a stable and vibrant Mexico that “is good for the United States.”4 Having a secure U.S.-Mexican border that fosters joint security and stability is in the interest of the United States, as the binational relationship is fundamentally different from the United States’ relationship with any other country.5 Bilateral trade, social ties, and security cooperation are important issues—for both countries—that are highly influenced by the U.S.-Mexico relationship.
Topic:
Security, Regional Cooperation, Borders, Economic Cooperation, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
North America, Mexico, and United States of America

193. Strategic Standoff: The U.S.-China Rivalry and Taiwan

Author:
Ian Easton
Publication Date:
03-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
The CCP views Taiwan as a grave threat to its grip on power. Consequently, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), which is the armed wing of the CCP, considers the invasion of Taiwan to be its most critical mission. Getting the strategic competition with China right will ultimately help America secure unprecedented levels of prosperity, freedom, and stability for all Pacific nations by the century’s midpoint.
Topic:
Security, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

194. South China Sea and the New Great Game

Author:
Marius Grinius
Publication Date:
06-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:
Arguably, the South China Sea drama is an important piece in the new “Great Game” that is being played out between the world’s current superpower (US), perceived by some to be in decline, and the new challenger (China) that wants to take its rightful place as an equal and perhaps even more. The US is faced with the strategic challenge of how to manage China’s global ascendancy peacefully. China’s unilateral actions in the South China Sea, which include claims of sovereignty of the islands reaching back to ancient times, the construction of artificial islands in the Spratlys and Paracels, airfield extensions, and deployments of surface-to-air and anti-ship missiles, do not bode well for any future peaceful settlement of South China Sea disputes in which Taiwan, Brunei, Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines are also claimants. While the US has not taken sides in these territorial disputes, its strenuous insistence on its right of freedom of navigation through disputed waters has brought the US into confrontation with China, at a time when the latter is modernizing and restructuring its military forces. Ironically, all sides claim that their actions are aimed at maintaining peace and stability in the region. Some observers fear, however, that the situation will ultimately lead to a military clash between China and the US. It is in Canada’s highest interest to ensure that the South China Sea indeed remains a zone of peace, stability, prosperity and open international passage. Canada can contribute to these goals by showing the flag through participation in various multinational maritime exercises in the region in support of UNCLOS, by demonstrating through diplomatic means that it is closely following the situation and actually has a national position on the issue, and by contributing to its resolution through renewed involvement in Track Two dialogue by Canadian Law of the Sea experts. In the bigger context of the new Great Game, however, the question remains whether China, for all its growing economic and military clout, can act as a responsible global leader that supports and defends the rule of international law.
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, Maritime, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
China, Canada, Asia, North America, United States of America, and South China Sea

195. Beyond Competitive Devaluations: The Monetary Dimensions of Comparative Advantage

Author:
Paul R. Bergin
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Motivated by the long-standing debate on the pros and cons of competitive devaluation, we propose a new perspective on how monetary and exchange rate policies can contribute to a country’s international competitiveness. We refocus the analysis on the implications of monetary stabilization for a country’s comparative advantage. Motivated by the long-standing debate on the pros and cons of competitive devaluation, we propose a new perspective on how monetary and exchange rate policies can contribute to a country’s international competitiveness. We refocus the analysis on the implications of monetary stabilization for a country’s comparative advantage. We develop a two-country New-Keynesian model allowing for two tradable sectors in each country: while one sector is perfectly competitive, firms in the other sector produce differentiated goods under monopolistic competition subject to sunk entry costs and nominal rigidities, hence their performance is more sensitive to macroeconomic uncertainty. We show that, by stabilizing markups, monetary policy can foster the competitiveness of these firms, encouraging investment and entry in the differentiated goods sector, and ultimately affecting the composition of domestic output and exports. Panel regressions based on worldwide exports to the U.S. by sector lend empirical support to the theory. Constraining monetary policy with an exchange rate peg lowers a country’s share of differentiated goods in exports between 4 and 12 percent.
Topic:
Monetary Policy, Monopoly, Strategic Competition, and Financial Stability
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

196. He Who Would Rule: Climate Change in the Arctic and its Implications for U.S. National Security

Author:
Elizabeth L. Chalecki
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:
School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:
Anthropogenic climate change will have its greatest effect on the Arctic, which will experience impacts ranging from increasing ambient air temperature to glacier and sea ice melting to permafrost thaw. This altered environment will result in new national security concerns for circumpolar nations such as the United States, including increased Arctic access by Russia and other nations; competition over newly accessible fossil fuel resources; and loss of Arctic military facilities resulting from permafrost thaw and land subsidence. Although these effects will be felt cumulatively over the coming decades, the United States must make the necessary strategic changes now in order to prevail in this new security environment. The United States should retrain and re-equip military forces for greater Arctic operability, work toward a clear legal understanding of open sea access in newly ice-free waters, and consider implementing a joint circumpolar security apparatus to facilitate adaptation to this new globally-warmed Arctic.
Topic:
Climate Change, National Security, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
North America, Arctic, and United States of America