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11. Plurilateral Controls and a New Export Control Regime are Needed to Make Export Controls More Effective and Less Counterproductive

Author:
Kevin Wolf
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
If the first rule of export control regulation is to define clearly the problem to be solved, the second, with some exceptions, is to ensure that the rule is both effective and not counterproductive. By “effective,” I mean that the rule actually stops or hinders the end users of concern from getting the items at issue from any source. My reference to “not counterproductive” means ensuring that foreign competitors of U.S. companies do not gain outsized advantages in markets to which U.S. firms no longer have access thanks to export controls. The income gained in these instances could allow the foreign competitors to out-innovate, out-compete, or even displace entirely the U.S. company. The exceptions pertain to situations where the U.S. should impose a unilateral control to express objection to and not otherwise support human rights violations or move quickly when the issue to be addressed is urgent, particularly if there is a threat to the warfighter. In both cases, the point remains that the eventual adoption of multilateral or plurilateral controls will make them more effective.
Topic:
Regulation, Exports, Unilateralism, and Economic Competition
Political Geography:
North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

12. Reimagining Africa’s role in revitalizing the global economy

Author:
Amin Mohseni-Cheraghlou
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The world economy now finds itself at a critical juncture, facing a series of extraordinary setbacks that have pushed down growth. Reigniting growth requires a unique combination of targeted policies, robust international cooperation, and a renewed look at the global economy, with a particular focus on Africa. Due to its burgeoning and youthful population, abundant natural resources, and a strategic geographical location that can facilitate global trade, Africa can play a major role in—and should be front and center of—any renewed efforts for revitalizing the global economy. A decade-long robust, inclusive, and green growth in Africa will not only move hundreds of millions living in the continent out of poverty but will also accelerate a global rebound and recovery. However, for this to materialize, Africa needs substantial investments in its failing and inadequate physical and social infrastructure. With access to basic infrastructure, alongside efficient institutions as well as its young population, massive natural endowments, and strategic location Africa can seize its economic potential and act as an engine of growth for the global economy for decades to come. Therefore, it is crucial to support Africa to unleash its immense economic potential, through massive and focused investments in the continent’s human capital and its physical and social infrastructure.
Topic:
Development, International Organization, Reform, European Union, Regulation, Finance, Economy, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Europe, and United States of America

13. The Economic Impact of China PNTR Repeal

Author:
David Schockenhoff and Michael Kleiman
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
As scepticism towards China is rising among policymakers, businesses grow more concerned about the potential economic fallout from an escalation in US-China tariff policy. Oxford Economics was commissioned by the US-China Business Council (USCBC) to help inform the policymaking process by examining two scenarios that could materialize if China’s Permanent Normalized Trade Relations (PNTR) status was revoked – including the increase of US tariffs on Chinese goods to column 2 rates as well as a Chinese retaliation imposing pre-WTO rates on US goods. Our analysis incorporates state-of-the art trade and economic models, including the Oxford Economics GEM, and finds that the US could lose up to $1.9trn in output over the five-year period following a China PNTR repeal. This is our third study for USCBC after examining the impact of the US-China relationship and associated scenarios in two previous reports (2017 and 2021).
Topic:
Economics, Politics, Bilateral Relations, Regulation, Tariffs, Trade, Supply Chains, Policymaking, Decoupling, and Goods and Services
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

14. Chipping Away: Assessing and addressing the labor market gap facing the US semiconductor industry

Author:
Dan Martin and Hamilton Galloway
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Thanks in large part to enactment of the landmark 2022 CHIPS and Science Act, a significant share of expected new chip manufacturing capacity and R&D is expected to be located in the US. We project the semiconductor industry’s US-based workforce will grow by nearly 115,000 jobs by 2030, from approximately 345,000 jobs today to approximately 460,000 jobs by the end of the decade. We estimate that roughly 67,000, or 58%, of these new jobs risk going unfilled at current degree completion rates. Of the unfilled jobs: 39% will be technicians, most of whom have two-year degrees or less; 35% will be computer scientists, or engineers with four-year degrees; and 26% will be engineers at the master’s or PhD level. For the US economy as a whole, we estimate that 3.85 million additional jobs in these three technical fields will be created by the end of 2030. Of those, 1.4 million jobs risk going unfilled unless the pipeline for such workers is expanded. To address the skills gap facing the broader economy and the semiconductor industry, we present three core recommendations to strengthen the US technical workforce: Strengthen support for regional partnerships and programs aimed at growing the pipeline for skilled technicians for semiconductor manufacturing and other advanced manufacturing sectors. Grow the domestic STEM pipeline for engineers and computer scientists vital to the semiconductor industry and other sectors that are critical to the future economy. Retain and attract more international advanced degree students within the US economy.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, Regulation, Manufacturing, Labor Market, Workforce, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

15. What’s Next for Oil and Gas Methane Regulations

Author:
Ben Cahill
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Proposed methane regulations for the oil and gas industry are in the works in the United States and the European Union. These new rules—especially the U.S. regulations—could play a critical role in curbing emissions. This brief summarizes the next steps for methane rules on both sides of the Atlantic, including an overview of the emerging regulations in the United States and a synopsis of the EU methane legislation process. It identifies areas that require more analysis, such as how closely measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV), leak detection and repair (LDAR), and reporting requirements will align. The brief also summarizes the current EU approach to reducing methane emissions from its gas imports as well as its longer-term aspirations, outlining the implications for gas exporters to Europe.
Topic:
Climate Change, European Union, Regulation, Sustainability, Methane, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe and United States of America

16. Improving the Efficiency of NRC Power Reactor Licensing: The 1957 Mandatory Hearing Reconsidered

Author:
Matt Bowen, Rama T. Ponangi, and Stephen Burns
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
Nuclear energy can play a vital role in helping the US—and the globe—meet mid-century climate goals. But any such role for nuclear depends on overcoming the significant if underappreciated challenges posed by the current nuclear licensing process in the US. Put simply, getting a new nuclear project licensed is time-consuming and expensive. This report, part of ongoing research on nuclear energy at the Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University SIPA focuses on a singular element of the licensing process that has drawn particular scrutiny for the resources it demands: the so-called mandatory hearing. Dating to a 1957 amendment to the Atomic Energy Act (AEA) of 1954, the mandatory hearing was put in place during the early period of nuclear reactor regulation as a way of forcing the Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) to be more transparent with the public about projects under consideration for development. It was intended to provide an open forum in which the details of reactor project applications were aired publicly and debated. But today, well over half a century since the 1957 amendment to the AEA, there are several compelling reasons to reconsider the mandatory hearing requirement.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Regulation, and Nuclear Energy
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

17. Fiscal Policy in the Regulation of Adult-Use Cannabis in Colombia: Executive Summary

Author:
César Rodríguez-Garavito, Luis Felipe Cruz-Oliveira, and Isabel Pereira-Arana
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Dejusticia
Abstract:
In Colombia today, discussing a legal framework for marijuana is not a hypothetical matter – it’s a real political possibility. In fact, in the 2018-2022 legislative period, three bills were introduced that proposed regulating cannabis for adult use as well as coca-leaf derivatives. This regulatory boom is not exclusive to Colombia; to date, 19 states in the United States and two countries – Uruguay and Canada – have approved a legal framework for adult-use marijuana. This marks a significant change from the hardhanded laws that have shaped the war on drugs from the time of former U.S. President Richard Nixon to the present. In Colombia, cannabis is the most widely used substance that has been declared illicit. According to the National Survey of Psychoactive Substance Use (Encuesta Nacional de Consumo de Sustancias Psicoactivas), published in 2019 by the country’s Ministry of Justice and the National Administrative Department of Statistics (Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística, DANE), more than 637,000 people used marijuana within the last year (2019, p. 66), which corresponds to 2.7% of the population between 12 and 65 years of age2 . Seventy-two percent (72%) of these people were between 18 and 34 years of age and lived in Bogotá, Cali, the coffee belt or Medellín (Ministerio de Justicia & DANE, 2019, p. 68). According to the National Planning Department (Departamento Nacional de Planeación, DNP), the geographical distribution of marijuana use tends to be concentrated in urban areas that are attractive for selling the cannabis produced in the Northern Cauca subregion (DNP, 2017, p. 105). Although that is not the only region with marijuana crops, the country is currently experiencing a boom in so-called “creepy” marijuana3 (as a result of the extent of this substance and dependence on the income from it), which is produced in the Northern Cauca municipalities of Caloto, Corinto, Miranda, Toribío and Santander de Quilichao. In this context, two sensitive factors arise in debating cannabis regulation in Colombia. One is that the areas that supply the illegal market have significant gaps in terms of socioeconomic well-being and continue to experience conflict dynamics partly associated with the substance’s prohibition. The other is that the regulation of marijuana, as the most widely consumed illicit substance in the country, must address the protection of public health and the health of those who use it. The majority of regulation proposals put little emphasis on the potential revenue coming from the market, or the allocation of those resources. If we agree that marijuana has played a central role in the origins of drug trafficking in Colombia, and that the regions where it is grown today lag significantly in socioeconomic terms, the transition to a legal market would be an opportunity to improve the peasant farmer and indigenous population’s living conditions, while also protecting public health by controlling the quality and potency of the cannabis that is bought and sold. All of these public policy actions require resources. While those who promote business interests in marijuana regulation insist on stressing the economic benefits for the overall economy, along with the amount of resources it would contribute to state coffers, they fail to mention specific measures that the State should delineate so the market can be based on rules that would finance the actions needed to address the regional problems that predate the regulations, or actually gave rise to the illegal trade. With the goal of illuminating this discussion, based on comparative experiences and on the Principles and Guidelines for Human Rights in Fiscal Policy, this document addresses three dimensions of the problem: (i) explaining, based on available evidence and conceptual debates, why regulation is necessary and what role the fiscal framework plays in this policy; and (ii) providing, based on comparative experiences, elements for designing the regulations’ fiscal frameworks. Finally, contemplating these two aspects, we present a proposal for cannabis fiscal principles.
Topic:
Regulation, Fiscal Policy, and Cannabis
Political Geography:
Canada, Colombia, South America, Uruguay, and United States of America

18. Jawboning against Speech: How Government Bullying Shapes the Rules of Social Media

Author:
Will Duffield
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Over the past two decades, social media has drastically reduced the cost of speaking, allowing users the world over to publish with the push of a button. This amazing capability is limited by the fact that speakers do not own the platforms they increasingly rely on. If access to the platforms is withdrawn, speakers lose the reach that social media grants. In America, government censorship is limited by the First Amendment. Nevertheless, seizing upon the relationship between platforms and speakers, government officials increasingly demand that platforms refrain from publishing disfavored speech. They threaten platforms with punitive legislation, antitrust investigations, and prosecution. Government officials can use informal pressure — bullying, threatening, and cajoling — to sway the decisions of private platforms and limit the publication of disfavored speech. The use of this informal pressure, known as jawboning, is growing. Left unchecked, it threatens to become normalized as an extraconstitutional method of speech regulation. While courts have censured jawboning in other contexts, existing judicial remedies struggle to address social media jawboning. Amid the opacity and scale of social media moderation, government influence is difficult to detect or prevent. Ultimately, congressional rulemaking and the people’s selection of liberal, temperate officials remain the only reliable checks on this novel threat to free speech.
Topic:
Government, Regulation, Social Media, Censorship, and Free Speech
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

19. The Strength of Small, Lean, and Agile

Author:
Brian Binnie
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
As a youngster, the 1960s wereexciting times for space exploration. In 1968, I watched Stanley Kubrick’s 2001: A Space Odyssey, a movie that sparked the minds of young adventurers everywhere. Just one year later, in 1969, I watched alongside the world as two men bounced around on the moon. With millions of others, I believed that since everything was happening so quickly, by the time we were older, there would be all sorts of opportunities available in the burgeoning 1eld of space. 9ese expectations were never realized. For 45 years, the same starry adventurers watched from the sidelines as the severed operations of NASA maintained their exclusive grip on all things space with the Shuttle and International Space Station operations. But in 2004, a small, privately owned company shocked the landscape, 0ying three space 0ights with a reusable ship to the rapt attention of millions worldwide. With the visibility provided by a $10 million prize, these 0ights became the leading story of that year.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Regulation, Space, and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
Political Geography:
United States of America

20. Implications of the European Union’s Digital Regulations on U.S. and EU Economic and Strategic Interests

Author:
Kati Suominen
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
In recent months, the European Union has adopted several sweeping digital regulations, such as the Digital Services Act (DSA) and Digital Markets Act (DMA), while proposing a number of new measures—including the Data Act, the Artificial Intelligence Act, and the Media Freedom Act. These regulations will shape, likely quite dramatically, the environment for doing digital business in Europe and beyond. They will have profound implications on the leading U.S. digital service providers designated by the European Union as “gatekeepers”—large digital services providers that are expected to adhere to regulatory requirements—as well as these companies’ hundreds of millions of transatlantic European business and individual customers. By impacting primarily U.S. companies instead of Asian or European ones, Europe’s digital policies will also shape U.S. and European global strategic and national security interests. This study will assess the potential implications of new and proposed EU digital acts on U.S. digital service providers, on their customers in Europe and the United States, and on the EU and U.S. economies and exports.
Topic:
European Union, Regulation, Regionalism, Strategic Interests, and Digitalization
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America