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162. ALL STICK, NO CARROTS: THE SHORTSIGHTED GEOPOLITICS OF THE IRAN SANCTIONS
- Author:
- Cullen S. Hendrix
- Publication Date:
- 08-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- The Trump administration, having withdrawn the United States from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action last May, is threatening US trading partners over doing business with Iran and attempting to freeze Iran out of global oil markets. The attempted freeze-out began with the re-imposition of US sanctions against Iran and businesses operating there, and the Trump administration set November 4 as the target date for US allies to zero out their purchases of Iranian crude. With some arm-twisting, NATO allies like Turkey and Asian security partners South Korea and India have agreed to curb Iranian imports, though it will be difficult for India to zero out its Iranian imports. Fearful of being caught up by US sanctions, major European firms like Total, Allianz, and Maersk have begun winding down operations in Iran in advance of the November 4 deadline. This whole episode reflects a fundamental misunderstanding, on the part of the Trump administration, of both the conditions under which sanctions can hope to be successful in winning policy concessions and the geopolitical realities of pursuing said course of action.
- Topic:
- NATO, Oil, Sanctions, Geopolitics, and Barack Obama
- Political Geography:
- China, Iran, Middle East, India, and United States of America
163. The Relevance of the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization for the United States in the 21st Century
- Author:
- Joel R. Hillison
- Publication Date:
- 09-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- The “America First” approach to foreign policy seems to call into question the value of institutions like the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union (EU). However, in a more competitive and uncertain strategic environment, NATO and the EU remain vital to promoting U.S. interests.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, Military Strategy, Armed Forces, European Union, Strategic Interests, and America First
- Political Geography:
- Europe, North America, and United States of America
164. Modern assumptions of the American ballistic missile defence system against the background of historical concepts and programmes
- Author:
- Aleksandra Murat-Bors
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Security and Defence Quarterly
- Institution:
- War Studies University
- Abstract:
- The issue of missile defence has been present in American policy for over 70 years and is constantly subject to research and the search for new technologies. Nowadays, the proliferation of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, as well as the growing threat from the so-called “rogue states” have caused the inevitable development of the missile defence strategy. On the basis of historical programmes and the results of contemporary research, the concept of a Ballistic Missile Defence System was created. The system is based on the principles of indivisibility of the security of the Alliance and NATO solidarity, fair sharing of risk and burdens as well as taking on reasonable challenges. One of the components of the system is the European Phase Adaptive Approach, which was designed to protect American allies and resources in the European region from the growing rocket threat. This paper analyses the genesis of ballistic missile defence and what its development tendencies are. The article contains a presentation of the essence of the US Ballistic Missile Defence System, as well as its history and suspended programmes. The concept of multilayered defence has been outlined, as have the technical details of the system’s components and its location and operational status.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Nuclear Weapons, Missile Defense, and Ballistic Missile
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
165. NATO-Russia Relations: Overcoming Agony
- Author:
- Akop Gabrielyan
- Publication Date:
- 07-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Rethinking Russia
- Abstract:
- ANALYSISOPINION NATO-Russia Relations: Overcoming Agony 17.07.2017Featured Image Akop A. Gabrielyan – the founder and the leader of the “Consensus” youth NGO, expert in the policy of the post-soviet states. If anything, the central tenet of the Hippocratic oath: first do no harm – Primum non nocere – is the first motto to be applied to today’s dialogue between Russia and NATO, a military and political organization. The dialogue essentially boiling down to interaction between Russia and the United States, the alliance’s leader, has offered fewer grounds for optimism over the years. Noticeably worse relations, whose downward spiraling trend is too serious a phenomenon to be even referred to as “the Cold War”, are degenerating into an agony. This is testified by some experts predicting an unavoidable military conflict and a real deterioration in the situation amid the Ukraine and Syria conflicts that Russia and NATO (the US) treat differently. For instance, Moscow officially suspended a deal with the US to prevent mid-air collisions over Syria in response to America’s attitude towards April’s deadly chemical attack in Syria’s Idlib province.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, NATO, Partnerships, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and United States of America
166. Evaluating Canada as a Dependable Ally and Partner for the United States
- Author:
- Lindsay Rodman
- Publication Date:
- 11-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
- Abstract:
- This article provides an American analysis of Canada’s recently released defence policy: Strong, Secure, Engaged (SSE). On the whole, the document reaffirmed Canada as a dependable “closest friend”, partner and ally. From an American perspective, SSE is well received, providing additional capacity in high-demand areas and additional capability, particularly in areas that complement U.S. capabilities. In North America and overseas, the United States looks to Canada to be a highly capable, highly interoperable, complementary and sophisticated partner. SSE invests in many aspects of Canadian defence that will bolster the country’s effectiveness as a U.S. partner and ally. Although the document does contain a force utilization construct that provides a helpful guide to American policy-makers, the organizational structure of the document, and the complete lack of a threat assessment or other prioritization, leave some unanswered questions about who Canada intends to be, and how Canada plans to engage with the world.
- Topic:
- NATO, Intelligence, Regional Cooperation, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Canada, North America, and United States of America
167. The Global Exchange (Fall 2017)
- Author:
- Colin Robertson, David J. Bercuson, Julian Lindley-French, Yves Brodeur, Ian Brodie, Andrea Charron, Andrew Rasilius, Richard Cohen, Rolf Holmboe, Lindsay Rodman, and Ariel Shapiro
- Publication Date:
- 09-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Global Exchange
- Institution:
- Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
- Abstract:
- The Global Exchange is the Canadian Global Affairs Institute’s quarterly magazine featuring topical articles written by our fellows and other contributing experts. Each issue contains approximately a dozen articles exploring political and strategic challenges in international affairs and Canadian foreign and defence policy. This Fall 2017 issue focuses on NATO.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, Treaties and Agreements, Military Affairs, Economy, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Canada, North America, Arctic, and United States of America
168. Ukraine’s Foreign Policy and the Role of the West
- Author:
- Olexiy Haran and Petro Burkovskiy
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Transatlantic Relations
- Abstract:
- This paper is part of CTR's Working Paper Series: "Eastern Voices: Europe's East Faces an Unsettled West." In this chapter, Haran and Burkovskiy begin with a general analysis of mutual perceptions from both sides, then proceed to identify key interests and concerns regarding the war in Donbas, and analyze whether the political aspects of the Minsk agreements can be implemented. They then suggest some recommendations on the way ahead. The authors argue that Putin’s success in attacking Ukraine, which is impossible to achieve without undermining unity among Western powers, could embolden him to exert his power and influence in wider Europe. Moreover, as U.S.-EU ties are likely to undergo some stress after elections on each side of the Atlantic in 2016 and 2017, Russia will to be tempted to take advantage of such turbulence by pressing forward with its goals in Ukraine and pushing the so-called “grey zone” of insecurity westward before a new equilibrium is found within the Euro-Atlantic area.
- Topic:
- International Relations, NATO, Treaties and Agreements, Territorial Disputes, Grand Strategy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, Crimea, United States of America, and European Union
169. The Incoming Trump Administration
- Author:
- Eric Lerhe
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for the Study of Security and Development, Dalhousie University
- Abstract:
- The election of President Trump provoked considerable disarray. His pre-election warning that states not meeting NATO defence spending targets might be denied US protection has resulted in a member of the Bundestag’s Committee of Foreign Affairs arguing for a non-US nuclear deterrent. Lithuania’s Foreign Minister warned of a Russian provocation against the Baltic states timed to occur prior to the President-elect taking office. Trump's parallel calls for greater Korean and Japanese military contributions, including his readiness to accept their nuclear self-arming, had the Tokyobased Diplomat predicting region-wide mayhem ranging from the greater potential for climatebased conflict to the increased probability of China opening hostilities with Taiwan. That at least one election declaration – a commitment to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership – may have stemmed from an astonishing lack of understanding was also of concern: in debate with US Senator Paul Ryan, the President-elect seemed to be criticizing the TPP in part because he thought China was included. Closer to home, Trump’s threat to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement provoked calls within Canada to counter this by increasing its own defence spending to the 2% of GDP NATO target and scrapping supply management.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, Elections, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, North America, and United States of America
170. The Dispatch (Winter 2016)
- Author:
- David J. Bercuson, Frédérick Gagnon, Randolph Mank, Colin Robertson, Robert Huebert, Hugh Stephens, Gary Soroka, Hugh Segal, Daryl Copeland, David Perry, and Robert Muggah
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Global Exchange
- Institution:
- Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
- Abstract:
- The Dispatch (later called The Global Exchange) is the Canadian Global Affairs Institute’s quarterly magazine featuring topical articles written by our fellows and other contributing experts. Each issue contains approximately a dozen articles exploring political and strategic challenges in international affairs and Canadian foreign and defence policy. This Winter 2016 issue includes articles on the election of Donald Trump, energy policy, Canadian defense capability, and more.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, Energy Policy, Elections, Trans-Pacific Partnership, Trade, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Japan, Europe, Canada, North America, Arctic, and United States of America