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11. Buy Before You Build: A Decision Framework for Purchasing Commercial Space Services

Author:
Peter Cunniffe, Megan Lewis, and Bryan Clark
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
A recent wave of private investment in space creates new opportunities for government agencies to benefit from commercial innovation. Leaders of national security space acquisition organizations regularly express their intention to first buy commercial space capabilities and build government space systems only when they must.1 However, achieving greater use of commercial space services requires overcoming barriers that have thus far prevented the government from fully benefiting from private sector funding and creativity. This report assesses the increasingly wide range of commercial space services available to government agencies, identifies obstacles hindering greater use by the US government, and makes recommendations for overcoming them.2 While the report focuses on the US government use of commercial space services, its analysis and recommendations are relevant for governments of other space-faring nations.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, Space, and Investment
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

12. Made in Europe: An EU Green Industrial Plan to respond to the challenge of US and Chinese protectionism

Author:
Alekos Kritikos and George Pagoulatos
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The EU needs to urgently formulate a response to US and Chinese protectionism. US decarbonization legislation poses a threat of deindustrialization for Europe. Europe needs a plan to support EU green, industrial and technological competitiveness, while protecting European cohesion and the single market, and promoting European strategic autonomy. Relaxing EU state aid rules must be an inevitable first component of Europe’s response. But this would overwhelmingly benefit the stronger economies of Germany and France, undermining EU cohesion and the integrity of the single market. Thus, the second component of EU response must be a European Sovereignty Fund, of a size commensurate to the magnitude of the challenge. The new Fund must support value chain categories that include as many EU member states as possible. SURE, extended to encompass the energy crisis and green transition, should be an integral part of the mix, and so should promoting technological skills and reskilling for the “Clean Tech Economy”. Investment funding should seek to contribute to vertical integration, including as many stages in the supply chain as possible. It should contribute to the return of specific supply chains and production units from third countries to the EU and seek to include the EU’s weakest economies. Subsidies should rise if the investment is cross-border in nature and carry a bonus if made in an EU region with a low GDP per capita compared to the EU average. Funding could also promote European strategic autonomy by including cross-border partnerships of EU member states in the defence technology industry. It should involve new funding rather than simply recycling money from existing programmes, and certainly avoid deploying undisbursed resources from the Recovery & Resilience Fund.
Topic:
European Union, Investment, Industry, Protectionism, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and United States of America

13. La política exterior argentina: Equilibrios y continuidades entre China y Estados Unidos

Author:
Florencia Rubiolo and Diego Telias
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
La competencia entre Estados Unidos y China en el ámbito comercial, tecnológico y geopolítico tiene repercusiones globales. América Latina, a pesar de una creciente irrelevancia, también es una arena donde estas potencias están compitiendo. Argentina no ha quedado fuera de esta disyuntiva y, al igual que otros países de la región, ha intentado mantener un equilibrio entre ambas potencias, por la importancia que cada una reviste: Estados Unidos en lo financiero y China tanto en lo comercial como en materia de inversiones. En este artículo, a través de un repaso teórico, análisis de documentos oficiales y entrevistas, se analiza la política exterior de Alberto Fernández hacia China en el contexto de las divergencias entre ambos Estados. Concluimos que Argentina ha intentado de manera continua un equilibrio, aunque no implica equidistancia, ante una situación en donde los gobiernos aún no han sido presionados a optar.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Finance, Investment, Trade, Competition, and Equilibrium
Political Geography:
China, Argentina, South America, and United States of America

14. The Effects of the United States-China Trade War During the COVID-19 Pandemic on Global Supply Chains: Evidence from Viet Nam

Author:
Duc Anh Dang and Ngoc Anh Tran
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
The trade war between the United States (US) and China has affected their bilateral trade as well as that with other countries. This study investigates how Vietnamese firms performed during the COVID-19 pandemic under the shadow of this trade war. The change in the log of Vietnamese exports to the US from 2017 to 2020 is used to measure the impact of the trade war, and the change in the log of Chinese exports to the US is then used as an instrument for the Vietnamese export change during the same period. It is found that firms that faced more trade war exposure increased their investment, profit, and value added, which may be due to the market exit of unproductive firms. Moreover, the trade war impact is more pronounced for large firms. Foreign-invested firms gained less from trade war exposure. The pandemic weakened the trade war effect on firm performances; however, it exacerbated the trade tension effect on foreign-trade firms.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Investment, Trade, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

15. How to Curb Investments in Chinese Technology: Initiatives and Debates in the United States

Author:
Mathilde Velliet
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
In a continuation of U.S. efforts to slow China's development and acquisition of strategic technologies, Washington has imposed new restrictions on American investment in Chinese technology sectors such as artificial intelligence (AI), quantum, and semiconductors. On August 9, 2023, President Biden issued an unprecedented executive order, announcing notification requirements and prohibitions for U.S. tech investments in China. Three sectors are targeted: semiconductors, quantum information technology, and artificial intelligence. Washington’s main concern is that these investments are accompanied by technology transfers and “intangible benefits” contributing to the development of Chinese military capabilities. This concern, first voiced in the 1980s, has received a heightened political response since 2018. Considering the emerging consensus in Congress and the multiplication of bills, further measures are likely to be adopted in the coming months. The European Union and certain Member States are beginning to reflect on the consequences of U.S. measures, and on the relevance of adopting their own tools to control investment in China.
Topic:
Science and Technology, European Union, Investment, Artificial Intelligence, Quantum Computers, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America

16. Trade and Investment Are Not a Balancing Act

Author:
Norbert Michel
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The trade deficit is the amount by which the value of a country’s imports exceeds the value of its exports during a given period, such as one calendar year or quarter. It is a commonly misunderstood concept that inspires harmful economic policies, such as proposals that a country “balance” its imports and exports by taxing international capital flows. Supporters of this policy hope to shrink the trade deficit (i.e., to balance imports and exports) by taxing the capital surplus that goes along with a trade deficit in the balance-of-payments framework. In the United States, senators Tammy Baldwin (D‑WI) and Josh Hawley (R‑MO) authored a 2019 bill to do this and, though it died in the Senate Banking Committee, similar legislation may appear in the future. This kind of policy is highly flawed on theoretical, empirical, and practical grounds. For starters, trade deficits and capital surpluses are merely part of a national accounting system that includes multiple arbitrarily assigned categories. In fact, even the concept of balancing in the national accounting system is not as straightforward as supporters of balancing trade flows suggest. The evidence demonstrates that there is no clear negative relationship between a trade imbalance and a country’s optimal economic performance, especially regarding employment in manufacturing, which is a common concern among politicians. At best, taxing international capital flows would fail to change the incentives that drive US consumers’ high demand for imports. At worst, it would cause a global economic recession that impoverishes millions of people and makes Americans poorer.
Topic:
Economics, Investment, Trade, and Deficit
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

17. The Anti-Circumvention Instrument: Another Roadblock on the Investment Development Path?

Author:
Weihuan Zhou and Victor Crochet
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:
Companies from emerging economies, and China in particular, have started internationalizing their production operations. In doing so, they are following the same path as that taken by American, European and East Asian corporations before them, by setting up factories in third countries to serve their export markets from closer locations and produce more efficiently. Thus, it is no longer only developed countries’ multinationals which are moving their operations to developing countries, but emerging market companies that are increasingly engaging in production abroad. This phenomenon is having beneficial effects in countries where these companies invest and might help them start their own industrialization process. Yet, it has attracted the ire of developed countries, in particular the European Union. They are now targeting these downstream production plants abroad by using the so-called anti-circumvention instrument, resulting in trade defence duties imposed on the parent companies being extended to their foreign subsidiaries. This application of the anti-circumvention instrument departs from its historic rationale and might hinder the development of countries in need of foreign investment. Therefore, affected governments should consider taking international legal action to bring developed countries to the negotiating table to put a halt to this abuse of the anti-circumvention instrument.
Topic:
Development, Industrial Policy, Investment, Trade, Internationalization, Production, Emerging Economies, and Anti-Circumvention Instrument
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Global Focus, and United States of America

18. Restarting the Post-Pandemic Indian Economy

Author:
Aparna Pande, Eric B. Brown, and Thomas J. Duesterberg
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
This report is a result of a Takshashila-Hudson Roundtable Series that brought together experts, policymakers, and academics from India and the United States in November and December 2021 to discuss opportunities for the two nation-states to collaborate in a fast-changing global order. This section summarizes key recommendations for policymakers based on deliberations at the Takshashila-Hudson roundtable series Restarting the Post-Pandemic Indian Economy. The recommendations are divided into four themes for India-US Collaboration: Trade, Investments, Technology, and Human Capital Movement.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Immigration, Economy, Investment, Human Capital, Trade, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, North America, and United States of America

19. Germany’s Economic Security and Technology: Optimizing Export Control, Investment Screening and Market Access Instruments

Author:
Tyson Barker and David Hagebölling
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Technological development and increasingly fraught US-China competition have geopolitical consequences for technology access. The erosion of post-Cold War multilateral dual-use technology export control regimes, such as the Wassenaar Arrangement, and investment and other control frameworks have led to na-tional, EU, and ad hoc measures, such as the restrictions on Russian semiconductor access following the invasion of Ukraine. The German government must integrate technology access and control instruments – export controls, FDI screening, critical infrastructure access, research protection, and outbound investment– in its Digital Strategy and National Security Strategy. The former currently neglects critical technology access and control; the latter must address it comprehensively. German – and EU – dual-use export and FDI screening reforms have been updated and are now in place. Capacity building and alignment with EU and NATO partners now deserves greater attention. Measures could include more robust, institutionalized information-sharing and consultations on dual-use technology export, import, investment, and research controls in a Multilateral Technology Control Committee born out of the G7 or TTC. The commit-tee should also establish the capacity to deny end-user access to German technology through its own Foreign-Direct Product Rules and Entity List.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Science and Technology, Investment, and Exports
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

20. Utah: Strategic Investments in the Wake of a Pandemic

Author:
Jennifer Robinson, Natalie Roney, and Johnson Ball
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
Threatening economic impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic on Utah’s economy proved to be short-lived, due in part to early budget cuts, federal economic relief, and an expanding economy that out-performed expectations. Subsequently, FY22 provided the Utah Legislature opportunities to invest in education, infrastructure, and social services. Legislators also used this opportunity to cut taxes for veterans, the elderly population, and families. As the state’s population continues to grow at record rates, Utah decisionmakers must grapple with rising housing prices and record-high rental rates. This report highlights specific challenges and opportunities Utah faced through negotiating a record-high budget of $25.6 billion and provides an overview of Utah’s economy and changing demographic makeup.
Topic:
Investment, Fiscal Policy, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
North America, United States of America, and Utah