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2. Update: US and UK Strikes on Yemen Escalate Tensions
- Author:
- Luca Nevola
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- On 12 January, United States and United Kingdom air forces claimed to have carried out strikes on over 60 Houthi targets at 16 locations in Yemen. The operation was supported by Australia, Bahrain, Canada, and the Netherlands, members of the naval task force Operation Prosperity Guardian. The spokesperson of the Houthi military forces acknowledged the attack, mentioning that 73 raids targeted the capital Sanaa and the governorates of al-Hudayda, Taizz, Hajja, and Saada, resulting in five fighters dead and six injured. The multi-national operation sought to eliminate Houthi strategic infrastructure, thereby diminishing the Houthis’ offensive capabilities, and to retaliate following the group’s 9 January direct attack on US warships. However, it is unlikely that the strikes completely eradicated Houthi military capacity to target objectives in the Red Sea.
- Topic:
- Non State Actors, Houthis, Armed Conflict, and Strategic Infrastructure
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Middle East, Yemen, and United States of America
3. The battle over shipping lanes tips toward the Houthis
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The Houthis have succeeded throughout the period following the initiation of their military support for Gaza in disrupting commercial shipping passing through the Red Sea to countries they consider hostile; and the military operations of the US alliance inadvertently aided them in achieving their objective.
- Topic:
- Maritime Commerce, Houthis, Shipping, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Palestine, Gaza, United States of America, and Red Sea
4. How Washington Emboldened the Houthis
- Author:
- Noam Raydan and Grant Rumley
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Greater decisiveness would have shortened the conflict, lessened the toll on global maritime trade, and reassured U.S. partners in the region and beyond. Since the Houthis launched their assault on global shipping in November, the United States and its partners have scrambled for ways to restore calm and commerce to the Red Sea. First, on December 18, Washington assembled a maritime coalition designed to boost the U.S. presence in the area and promote regional security. Then, in January, the United States started intercepting Iranian military shipments bound for the Houthis and issued multiple warnings to the group. Finally, after nearly two months of continuous attacks in the Red Sea, the United States and the United Kingdom launched a barrage of strikes against the Houthis’ facilities. But these attacks have not halted or seemingly slowed the onslaught. The group has continued to lob missiles and drones, prompting continued strikes by Washington and its allies...
- Topic:
- Maritime, Houthis, Shipping, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Yemen, and United States of America
5. Red Sea Attacks and the International Response: An International Law Insight
- Author:
- Efthymios Papastavridis
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- The ongoing crisis in the Red Sea, involving attacks by the Houthis to international shipping in the region as well as forcible measures by the US and its allies against Houthis’ targets in Yemen, entails a host of legal, political, financial challenges to the international community, as evinced, amongst others, by the adoption of UN Security Council Resolution 2272 on 10th January 2024. Amongst others, it is evident that it gives rise to important questions under international law, including on the legal classification of the attacks in question and the legality of the measures that third States are taking. It is the purpose of this Insight to address these questions under international law. In so doing, the Insight avers that the proper qualification of the current situation in terms of the law of armed conflict is that of a non-international armed conflict (NIAC) between Yemen and other States, including the US, and a non-state armed group, the Houthis. Under international law, Houthis’ attacks, depending on the means and against whom they have been committed, can be classified as: i) acts of piracy; ii) acts regulated by the laws governing NIACs at sea; and iii) acts of ‘maritime terrorism’, or more aptly, acts falling under the scope of the 1988 SUA Convention. Accordingly, States fighting Houthis and protecting the safety of navigation in the Red Sea may indeed take many measures in accordance with international law, including the UNCLOS Articles 105 and 110 vis-à-vis acts of piracy, or Article 92 in respect of the protection of vessels flying their flags, as well as the laws governing NIAC at sea, as applicable to the parties to the conflict in question.
- Topic:
- International Law, Trade, Houthis, International Humanitarian Law (IHL), and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Yemen, United States of America, and Red Sea
6. CTC Sentinel: February 2024 Issue
- Author:
- Don Rassler, Sean Morrow, Don Rassler, Kristina Hummel, and Daisy Muibu
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- CTC Sentinel
- Institution:
- The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
- Abstract:
- Long-range aerial attacks by the Iran-backed Houthi terrorist group, including a ballistic missile that traveled at least a thousand miles toward Israel before being intercepted (reportedly in space) on October 31, 2023, are focusing minds on long-range stand-off terrorism. In this month’s feature article, which conceptualizes, outlines, and examines the implications of this emerging threat vector, Don Rassler argues that the notion that terrorists could strike the United States across the oceans with unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) is becoming increasingly less far-fetched. Rassler writes that “over the coming decade, hydrogen fuel cell and solar UAS technology will evolve and mature, and will also likely become more available and accessible to the average consumer, which will make longer ranges more accessible as well. Other disruptive technologies, such as generative artificial intelligence, will also mature and will likely be used by extremists to help them optimize system performance and to overcome, or devise creative solutions to, technical long-range UAS challenges.” He warns that “long-range stand-off terrorism will be attractive to some extremists because it opens-up new attack pathways, can enable surprise, and has the potential to deliver a potent psychological, ‘we can strike you from afar’ punch. Over the next decade advancements in commercial technologies and systems will also make range, and extended range, more accessible for violent non-state-entities, making it likely that in the future long-range terrorism will become even more of a threat.” Rassler’s article is the first in a new recurring series in CTC Sentinel entitled “On the Horizon” that will examine emerging counterterrorism challenges. Our interview is with Christopher Maier, the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low-Intensity Conflict. “We need to have sustainable CT operations that prevent terrorists’ actions, principally al-Qa`ida and ISIS, to ensure we are not distracted by what we view as the longer-term strategic priorities, such as peer adversaries,” he says. “As the rest of the Department and other parts of the U.S. government are doing less CT, [this] means that those who are doing it have to do it better and, in many respects, do it more proportionally to the rest of the national security enterprise. This is why SOF is looked to as the lead for the CT fight in the Department.” Daisy Muibu examines the state of Somalia’s military campaign against al-Shabaab. She writes that: “A year and five months after the Somali government launched its offensive against al-Shabaab, the initial optimism that characterized its first few months have diminished as the counterinsurgency’s momentum has stalled in the central regions of the country.” She adds that “with only a year left until African Union forces are mandated to fully draw down, significant obstacles remain that cast doubts over the government’s ambitious goals to defeat al-Shabaab and assume full responsibility for securing the country by December 31, 2024.”
- Topic:
- National Security, Science and Technology, Terrorism, Artificial Intelligence, Houthis, and Al-Shabaab
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Palestine, Somalia, Global Focus, and United States of America
7. CTC Sentinel: December 2024 Issue
- Author:
- Graham Macklin, Paul Cruickshank, Kristina Hummel, Michael Horton, Christopher Faulkner, Marcel Plichta, and Raphael Parens
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- CTC Sentinel
- Institution:
- The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
- Abstract:
- In the feature article, Graham Macklin evaluates ‘transnationalism’ as an analytical lens for understanding racially or ethnically motivated violent extremist (REMVE) terrorism. He writes that “the ‘transnational’ dimension of REMVE terrorism is often ill-defined and misunderstood, leading to misconceptions about the nature of such networks that in turn exaggerate their ‘global’ reach. … Nevertheless, understanding the transnational dimension of social media and its role in the radicalization of lone-actor REMVE terrorists is increasingly important. Online REMVE communities rather than physical organizations per se serve as the medium through which violent ideologies are spread; where lessons from previous attacks are learned and internalized; where the perpetrators of violence are revered; and where further acts of violence are encouraged and incited.” Our interview is with Marshall Miller, the outgoing Principal Associate Deputy Attorney General of the United States, who oversaw the day-to-day running of the Department of Justice and earlier in his career prosecuted or supervised the prosecution of several high-profile terrorism cases. When it comes to the CT mission of the DOJ, he says that “the number-one piece of advice would be that prevention and disruption always have to remain the top priority. And in order to achieve prevention and disruption, we need to double down on what has been working and continually modernize and calibrate to meet the varied threats. There is a system … that works; it involves coordination and information sharing and intelligence gathering from all sources—both in the intelligence community, of course, but also law enforcement and the Department of Defense.” Michael Horton outlines the Houthis’ expanding footprint in the Horn of Africa. He writes that securing supply chains and funding for their unmanned vehicle and missile programs, “especially funding and supplies that are independent of Iran, is a key objective for the Houthi leadership” and that “both AQAP and al-Shabaab now act as facilitators and, to a degree, as partners that help the Houthis smuggle needed materiel into and out of Yemen.” Christopher Faulkner, Raphael Parens, and Marcel Plichta look at Africa Corps, Russia’s replacement for the Wagner Group in Africa. They write: “Russia’s Sahel strategy, and arguably its Africa strategy writ large, is one that promotes more disruption and chaos, not less. … Russia has limited CT experience and diminished incentives to invest the resources necessary to genuinely solve the complex security crises in Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and across the greater Sahel—crises that demand much more than a military solution. Adding to the complications is the potential loss of Russian bases in Syria following the overthrow of the Assad regime. Any resulting Russian forfeiture of its bases … could make airlifting goods to Libya, the Sahel, and Central Africa significantly more challenging in the short term,” with implications for the endurability of Sahelian juntas propped up by Africa Corps.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Transnational Actors, Houthis, Countering Violent Extremism, Private Military Companies (PMCs), and Transnational Threats
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Russia, Syria, United States of America, and Horn of Africa
8. Ending Counterproductive U.S. Involvement in Yemen
- Author:
- Annelle Sheline
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
- Abstract:
- • The Saudi-led coalition and the Houthis maintain a de facto truce; however, should the Saudis choose to begin dropping bombs again, they would do so with the assistance of the United States. • Washington should use the current lull in fighting to withdraw support for military actions by the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen. • If the Biden administration fails to withdraw, Congress should pass a War Powers Resolution ending U.S. involvement in the conflict. In the absence of a War Powers Resolution, Saudi Arabia or the UAE could drag the United States into deeper involvement in the war. • The Biden administration justifies its opposition to a War Powers Resolution on the basis of its support for negotiations. However, evidence indicates that the longevity of the de facto truce reflects a mutually painful stalemate rather than American diplomacy. • To protect current and future negotiations, the Biden administration should address the threat import restrictions pose to diplomacy. Congress should request information as to why, after the United States arranged to rehabilitate Hodeidah port, almost no containerized goods, including medical equipment and supplies, have been permitted through the port. • Foreign intervention in the war has failed to undermine the Houthis militarily and instead has strengthened their legitimating narrative.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, War, Military Intervention, and Houthis
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America
9. An Heir and a Spare? How Yemen’s “Southern Hezbollah” Could Change Iran’s Deterrent Calculus
- Author:
- Michael Knights
- Publication Date:
- 12-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Since October 27, the Houthis have launched three medium-range ballistic missiles at Israel, a first since Saddam Hussein fired Scud missiles into the country in 1991. The Yemen-based jihadists have also launched at least eight salvos of cruise missiles and long-range explosive drones focused on the southern port of Eilat. Moreover, they have attacked U.S. assets directly during the Hamas-Israel war, shooting down one MQ-9 Reaper drone and routing numerous missiles near Navy vessels. If Iran continues to develop the group’s capabilities, the Houthis may provide the broader “axis of resistance” with a potent new chess piece. In this timely Policy Note, Michael Knights assesses the rising Houthi threat and explains how the United States and its allies can respond more assertively and effectively. A revamped policy would recognize the intimate alliance between the Houthis and Iran—which has never been a “marriage of convenience,” as some analysts have imagined—and seek to counter the group’s aggression with the goal of securing U.S. interests and providing a better future for the Yemeni people.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Energy Policy, Deterrence, and Houthis
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Palestine, United States of America, and Gulf Nations
10. Beyond Borders: Middle East in Empire, Diaspora, and Global Transitions (Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy, Spring 2021)
- Author:
- Reilly Barry
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The Middle East saw its share of globe-altering events in the last year. While JMEPP seeks to offer original analysis beyond the headlines, almost all major contemporary regional developments have been addressed in the present edition. The list, of course, is not exhaustive, but includes the Abraham Accords and increasing international marginalization of Palestinians, the renewed fighting over Nagorno-Karabakh between Armenia and Azerbaijan, continued protests amidst crises and weakening state institutions in Lebanon, and the rise of Turkey’s aggressive imperial foreign policy, to name a few. While there are major global transitions afoot as relates to the region, there is also a lack of transition— sadly, the 10-year anniversary of the Syrian revolution marks little change for those living under the dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad. Likewise, the humanitarian crisis in Yemen persists. The edition discusses what may become of newly inaugurated President Biden’s policies toward the region, including the challenge of renegotiating the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran. And finally, the edition would be remiss to not address how Covid-19 has impacted the region.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, Diaspora, Refugees, Social Media, Alliance, Conflict, Protests, Peace, Houthis, COVID-19, and Polarization
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Palestine, Georgia, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, United States of America, and Nagorno-Karabakh
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