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301. Violence Containment Spending in the United States

Author:
Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:
It has been well established that violence has a marked effect on economic activity with many studies demonstrating the negative economic impacts of crime, incarceration, insurgencies and especially war. However, there have been no studies to systematically aggregate the economic costs of all forms of violence, including the costs of prevention and protection, to understand how much of an economy is captured by violence and violence containment. For the purposes of classification, this form of economic activity has been defined as the violence containment industry (VCI). Aggregated as an industry sector it would be the single largest in the United States. The Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) has developed a new methodology to quantify the cost of violence and the economic gains associated with peace for the U.S. economy. All expenditure that is related to violence containment, whether performed by the military on the international stage or domestically through the provision of services to fight crime, has been classified together as the Violence Containment Industry or alternately, as violence containment spending. This provides a framework to classify and better understand a substantial part of the U.S. economy as well as providing a platform for future research. Given the sheer size of the U.S. economy that is dedicated to containing violence, quantifying the expenditure as a discrete industry creates a unique basis for further analysis and debate.
Topic:
Economy, Violence, Peace, Society, and Containment
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

302. Strengthening Fragile Partnerships: An Agenda for the Future of U.S.-Central Asia Relations

Author:
Evan A. Feigenbaum
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
A comprehensive new report from the Central Asia Study Group and the Project 2049 Institute calls on American and Central Asian leaders to rise to the challenges and opportunities in the region. The report proposes an action agenda on economics, energy, governance, security, social development, and regional cooperation, and places particular emphasis on the importance of reconnecting Central Asian countries to the global economy. The United States needs to reassess its strategies and policies and reaffirm its commitment to remain engaged with the nations of Central Asia even as the U.S. draws down forces from Afghanistan.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Development, Partnerships, Economy, and Energy
Political Geography:
Central Asia, North America, and United States of America

303. Will the U.S. Dollar Remain the Global Reserve Currency?

Author:
Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The U.S. economy’s rapidly growing trade and current account deficits (2003-2007) and systematic weakening of the dollar against the Euro and other currencies raised several concerns about its future as the global reserve currency. The global financial crisis of 2007-2009, while reinforcing the U.S. dollar’s role as the most liquid and in demand currency (especially during periods of increased risk aversion) triggered a political debate on how the future global reserve currency system should be shaped.
Topic:
Finance, Economy, Currency, Dollar, and Euro
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

304. Limits of Quantitative Easing

Author:
Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
"The recent decision of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board (Fed) to increase its assets by purchasing $600 billion worth of Treasury bonds is unlikely to boost economic growth or employment prospects in the U.S. Instead, it will cause damage to the world economy and may even lead to another financial crisis (especially in emerging and developing markets), where the U.S. dollar remains a leading reserve and transaction currency."
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Economy, Macroeconomics, and Currency
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

305. The Iranian Intentions behind Joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization

Author:
Michael Bell and Mahjoob Zweiri
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Abstract:
China welcomed Iran’s desire to strengthen cooperation in all spheres with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) following its official application in April 2007 to become a full member. With the SCO currently growing into strategic alliance between several of the worlds leading energy producers and two of its most hungry consumers; the United States saw an opportunity to establish itself in the region and therefore lobbied for observer status in 2005, however the request was denied. Since then, we have seen the SCO assume an ideological mantle of growing anti-Americanism. Committed to establishing a new international political and economic order, the association of East Asian states known as the SCO was founded as an intergovernmental organization in Shanghai on15th June, 2001. Its six founding countries; China, Russia Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, with Iran, Mongolia and Pakistan holding roles as country observers, have asppired to mitigate the influence of US power in the region, therefore Iran’s application for full membbership has crucial, and possibly underlying aspects to its reasoning. Therefore we would like to present some information about the SCO to specifically present the benefits Iran would gain by full membership.
Topic:
Energy Policy, International Cooperation, Economy, and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)
Political Geography:
China, Iran, Middle East, Asia, and United States of America

306. Global Imbalances: A Source of Strength or Weakness?

Author:
Kristin J. Forbes
Publication Date:
07-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Gross capital flows into the United States totaled $1.8 trillion in 2006. When combined with the $1.0 trillion the United States sent abroad, these net capital inflows funded the U.S. current account deficit of about $800 billion.1 The source of a large proportion of these capital inflows was developing economies—especially China and major oil exporters. Why are foreigners willing to invest such massive amounts of money in the U.S. economy? And perhaps even more surprising—why are countries with low levels of investment willing to send this relatively scarce resource to a capital-abundant economy instead of investing in their own countries? Understanding the motivation behind the millions of individual decisions that drive these capital inflows is critically important to understanding if this massive net transfer of capital into the United States reflects a strength or weakness of the global economy.
Topic:
Economy, Investment, and Capital
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

307. The Role of Monetary Policy in the Face of Crises

Author:
Anna J. Schwartz
Publication Date:
07-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
In this article I first review the Greenspan Fed’s record of providing liquidity in response to its perception of shocks the economy is facing. It assumed that the shocks were likely to generate financial crises. No financial crises, however, have occurred. Yet the Fed was dilatory in draining the market of unneeded liquidity. Failure to do so meant that monetary policy remained accommodative. I next discuss whether there is a connection between the Fed’s accommodative policy and the depreciation since 2002 of the exchange value of the dollar as well as the twin deficits and growing global imbalances. In that discussion I refer to the need to raise the national saving rate, in part by eliminating the budget deficit as well as projected deficits from the unfunded liabilities of Social Security and Medicare. Monetary policy, however, must be independent of fiscal policy. I conclude with some observations on the advisability of adoption by the Fed of inflation targeting.
Topic:
Monetary Policy, Federal Reserve, and Economy
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

308. Global Imbalances: Do They Matter?

Author:
Miranda Xafa
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
This article reviews the recent literature on global imbalances and discusses the policy implications of the various theories that have been advanced to explain their unprecedented increase. Most of these theories fit the stylized facts, namely, the steady increase in the U.S. current account deficit, the shift to a surplus position of the developing countries, and the low nominal and real interest rates globally. The “low U.S. savings” theory—reflecting the increase in the fiscal deficit and in housing wealth—views the current account deficit as the result of fiscal and monetary policy decisions in the United States that need to be urgently reversed to prevent a crash landing. Other theories however, focusing on developments outside the United States, portfolio balance effects, or previously neglected benign factors, do not yield such a doomsday scenario. It is relevant to note that there is no historical precedent of disorderly exchange rate adjustment in industrial countries that keep inflation under control (Croke, Kamin, and Leduc 2005). Concerns over a disorderly unwinding of global imbalances therefore appear exaggerated. This view, prevalent among market participants and several prominent academics, has not been widely embraced by policymakers.
Topic:
Monetary Policy, Economy, Wealth, and Savings
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

309. Why the U.S. External Imbalance Matters

Author:
William R Cline
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Last year the U.S. current account deficit (mainly on trade but including capital income and transfers) reached almost 7 percent of GDP, or about twice as large a share as in 1987, the peak of the previous episode of large external imbalances and dollar overvaluation. A major reason is that from 1995 to 2002 the dollar rose by 28 percent against other currencies, after taking account of inflation and weighting by trade. A strong dollar made U.S. exports expensive and imports cheap, driving up the trade deficit after about a two-year reaction time. With large and persistent external deficits, the United States has swung from being the world’s largest creditor nation to its largest debtor, with net foreign liabilities now at about one-fourth of GDP. The dollar has corrected somewhat and is now about 13 percent lower on a trade-weighted basis than its average in 2002, based on the Federal Reserve’s broad real exchange rate index. Without that partial correction the trade deficit would now be even larger. It will likely require a decline of an additional 15 to 20 percent in the dollar to cut the current account deficit back to about 3 percent of GDP. That rate would be consistent with limiting net foreign liabilities to 50 percent of GDP in the long term. Exceeding that ceiling would seem imprudent for both the U.S. and global economies. It will be crucial that China, Japan, and much of the rest of Asia participate in realignment of their currencies against the dollar, because the decline of the dollar so far has been heavily concentrated against the euro and other industrial country currencies except for the Japanese yen. Dollar correction will also need to be accompanied by fiscal adjustment. Otherwise much of the competitive effect of the dollar adjustment would be offset by higher inflation and a dollar rebound from higher interest rates. Fundamentally the external deficit is the excess of resources used over resources produced, and with U.S. household saving near zero, the government cannot be a large net borrower without keeping the nation in large external deficit.
Topic:
Government, Finance, Economy, Currency, and Deficit
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

310. Crafting a US Response to the Emerging East Asia Free Trade Area

Author:
Christopher Martin
Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University
Abstract:
Few would dispute Asia’s growing economic importance in the 21st century. While China and India have held the spotlight recently, their rise may not constitute the region’s most important economic shift. Japan is still by far the richest economy; while South Korea’s formidable industries are the envy of many. Furthermore, the ten-country coalition that makes up the Association for Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) boasts such economic dynamos as Singapore and Malaysia. Together, China, Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN (commonly referred to as ASEAN+3) account for 20 percent of global output, nearly 20 percent of global trade, and hold well over 50 percent of the world’s international monetary reserves. Moreover, the region is ripe for growth. It accounted for 31.4 percent of the world’s population in 2005 (more than Europe and the Americas combined) and the IMF’s 2008–2011 outlook figure clocked growth at 7.9 percent for Asia, dwarfing the 2.5 percent for major developed countries. How would the world’s economic landscape shift if these thirteen countries were to join together in some form of economic union? More importantly, how should the United States respond to such an event? It is a question the US needs to answer today.
Topic:
Economy, Free Trade, Industry, and Regional Economy
Political Geography:
East Asia and United States of America