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291. Sanctions, Economic Mismanagement, and the Iranian Currency Crisis, 2010 - 2012

Author:
Jessica Knight
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
In October 2012, the Iranian rial earned the unwelcome distinction of the world’s least valued currency. It had lost more than 80% of its open market value in the previous two years, crashing from 9,800 to 37,000 rials (IRR) per U.S. dollar (USD). As the rial lost value, demand for more reliable hard currencies surged until it far exceeded the Central Bank of Iran’s (CBI) official supply. Many western analysts, taking their cue from U.S. officials, claimed this devaluation proved the efficacy of international sanctions. Did it really?
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Sanctions, Economy, and Currency
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

292. Enough to Go Around? Money Matters Complicate U.S. Strategic Rebalance to Asia-Pacific

Author:
Leon Whyte and Richard Weitz
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
The U.S. Strategic Rebalance to Asia – also known as the “Asia Pivot” – has been a cornerstone of the Obama administration’s foreign policy since 2011. Hillary Clinton offered a detailed explaination of the concept in a 2011 Foreign Policy article.[1] The basic idea behind the Rebalance is that many U.S. core economic and security interests are increasingly centered in the Asia-Pacific region, so the United States needs to allocate more diplomatic, economic, military, and other assets towards the region. The Strategic Rebalance would do just that. The Defence Strategic Guidance relaeased by the Defence Department in January 2012 made supporting the rebalance a key Pentagon objective. The Obama Administration accordingly plans to increase the percentage of naval assets in the Pacific to 60 percent by 2020[2] in addition to stationing 2,500 Marines in Darwin, Australia, and 4 littoral combat ships in Singapore.[3][4] Given the region’s economic importance, this makes sense. The Asia-Pacific region accounted for 40 percent of global economic growth in 2013. In 2012, the U.S. exports to the region totaled $555 billion, which supported 2.8 million U.S. jobs.[5]
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Economy
Political Geography:
Asia-Pacific and United States of America

293. North Korea: The Myth of Maxed-Out Sanctions

Author:
Joshua Stanton
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
On December 19, 2014, President Obama publicly blamed North Korea for the cyberattack against Sony Pictures and for the subsequent cyberterrorism against the American people, and promised to "respond proportionally." Almost immediately thereafter, one could hear a familiar narrative repeated, typified by New York Times correspondent David Sanger, who wrote that "North Korea is under so many sanctions already that adding more seems futile." One could have heard similar arguments in 2006, after North Korea's first nuclear test, and in 2013, after its third nuclear test. A variation of this argument is that “Washington … can do little ... without the cooperation of China.” ​ For years, journalists have quoted “experts” who insisted that U.S. sanctions options against North Korea were exhausted and had failed as an instrument of policy. As a matter of both fact and law, however, that is false; it even suggests that these experts have not read and understood the sanctions authorities. Why does this view persist, then? Some scholars may accept and propagate it because they oppose sanctions as a matter of policy. Others have simply ceased to question a myth that has entered the received wisdom. A true understanding of the potential effectiveness of sanctions first requires an understanding of what these sanctions are, what they are not, and how they work. This article will first summarize the sanctions authorities – U.N. Security Council resolutions, and the U.S. sanctions that should be an important part of the effective enforcement of the measures that the U.N. Security Council has adopted. It will also explain the role of the Treasury Department in regulating the international financial system, and the power this gives the United States to isolate the North Korean government from that system. It will explain which U.S. and U.N. sanctions against North Korea have succeeded and failed, and why. Finally, it will explain what current U.S. national sanctions do, and what they do not do. Only after one understands how little the current sanctions do – and how much they could do – can one begin to understand how to strengthen them into an effective part of a coherent foreign policy... ​
Topic:
Science and Technology, United Nations, Sanctions, Cybersecurity, and Economy
Political Geography:
Asia, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

294. The Strategic Duel over Taiwan

Author:
Ian Easton
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
The United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) are firmly entrenched in what will be a long and intense strategic competition for dominance over the Pacific Rim. American strategists Andrew Marshall, Robert Kaplan, and Aaron Friedberg began foretelling of this great power struggle over a decade ago.[1]. They recognized before anyone else that there are strong forces underpinning the U.S.-China rivalry. The two countries’ political systems and national interests stand in fundamental opposition. This is why, despite Washington’s reluctance to officially admit it, strategic competition between the U.S. and the PRC is unavoidable. ​ The United States, while an imperfect democracy, is an inspiration to people everywhere who yearn for the freedom and dignity that comes from having a representative government, independent legal system, and market economy. In the PRC, on the other hand, power is monopolized by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), a political organization that is directly responsible for more human suffering than possibly any other regime past or present, anywhere in the world.[2] Numerous State Department reports detail the past and continuing human rights violations occurring under the watch of the CCP.[3] ​ For all its much ballyhooed economic reforms, China’s economy is still largely controlled by massive state-owned corporations, making it a mercantilist country, not a capitalist one.[4] Much of Beijing’s economic power ultimately stems from its remarkable ability to lure foreign business elites with promises of access to its huge market. Once the hook is set, China pockets their investments, steals their intellectual property, and undercuts their market competitiveness.[5] ​ Yet it is not the PRC’s unsavory political or economic practices that will ensure sustained U.S.-China competition over the coming decades, although future American presidents, like Barack Obama, will undoubtedly be tempted to paper over ideological differences for expedience sake. Rather, Beijing’s insecure and aggressive nature is at the root of the problem. In recent years, China has stoked maritime tensions with Japan and the Philippines, both treaty allies of the United States; provoked border clashes with India, a democratic nation and American security partner; and enabled nuclear missile proliferation amongst its friends: North Korea, Pakistan, and Iran.[6] Track records tell a compelling story. The PRC’s track record indicates that a growing number of geostrategic issues could eventually result in a clash between the United States and China... ​
Topic:
Security, Military Strategy, Economy, and Grand Strategy
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

295. Aboriginal Self-Determination: A Comparative Study of New Zealand, Australia, and the United States of America

Author:
Katie Saulnier
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute for the Study of International Development, McGill University (ISID)
Abstract:
Aboriginal groups present with sub-par outcomes in key indicators of well-being across the board. Increased capacity for self-governance presents one possibility for improving these outcomes, but its implementation is complicated by historically acrimonious relationships with federal governments and the larger context of attempting to rectify the complex harms done by colonialism. The solution involves finding the right balance between creating spaces for self-governance and providing the necessary federal assistance where appropriate. This paper discusses the structure of and approaches to Aboriginal self-determination and selfgovernance in New Zealand, Australia, and the United States, with a view toward assessing which approaches could prove effective in Canada. It does so through a variety of lens and by examining impact assessments in a number of key areas.
Topic:
Development, Education, Health, Infrastructure, Self Determination, Economy, History, Colonialism, and Indigenous
Political Geography:
Australia, New Zealand, and United States of America

296. A ‘New Era’ for Japan’s Global Engagement and the U.S.-Japan Alliance

Author:
Yukio Tada
Publication Date:
05-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
There have been already “many ‘firsts’” in the Abe 2.0 administration. With continued political leadership and bold economic initiatives on both sides, there is now a historic opportunity to help get the U.S.-Japan alliance back on the right track.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Leadership, Economy, and Alliance
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, and United States of America

297. Journal of Public and International Affairs 2013

Author:
Greg Rosalsky, Sarah Schleck, Nathaniel D. F. Allen, Ezra Levin, Alex Penwill, Farzan Sabet, Daniel Tam-Claiborne, Albert Trithart, Mark Walker, Ben Grubb, and Gloria Twesigye
Publication Date:
05-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:
School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:
The nine articles in this volume were chosen from over 150 submissions through a blind-selection process in Princeton. After individually reading a large number of submissions, attending editors first voted for their favorite papers via secret ballot, and we then facilitated an open debate to winnow down these choices to the cream of the crop. In the intervening months before publication, editors in Princeton from relevant policy areas worked with the authors to fact-check their work and fine-tune their arguments. While their geographic foci and policy subjects are multifarious, all the authors in this edition share a passion for changing the world through better policy. Whether it is women’s health issues in Tanzania, banking regulation in the European Union, diplomacy with Iran over its nuclear ambitions, or immigration policy in the United States, the authors implore global policymakers to change course in order to remedy contemporary problems in public affairs. This dedication to making the world a better place through public policy, in addition to demonstrating first-rate scholarship, make us proud to showcase these articles.
Topic:
Health, Nuclear Weapons, Politics, Foreign Aid, Governance, Nuclear Power, Democracy, Economy, Arms Trade, and Microcredit
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Iran, Tanzania, Honduras, Mali, Niger, and United States of America

298. Countering Chinese Cyber Operations: Opportunities and Challenges for U.S. Interests

Author:
Mark Stokes and L. C. Russell Hsiao
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
Chinese cyber espionage poses an advanced persistent threat to U.S. national and economic security. Groups operating from PRC territory are believed to be waging a coordinated cyber espionage campaign targeting U.S. government, industrial, and think tank computer networks. A dozen of these groups have been identified and linked with the PLA, and others connected with universities and information security enterprises. The largest and most active of these groups may operate from Beijing and Shanghai.
Topic:
Government, Cybersecurity, Economy, and Espionage
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and United States of America

299. Chinese Direct Investment in California

Author:
Daniel H. Rosen and Thilo Hanemann
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
A new report entitled Chinese Direct Investment in California published by the Asia Society finds that California has attracted more Chinese investment deals than any other U.S. state but remains fifth in the nation in total investment value. Negligible before 2008, Chinese investment in the state is growing at triple-digit levels and could reach $60 billion by 2020, but only if the state and private sector do a better job working together to attract Chinese capital. The report is co-authored by Daniel H. Rosen and Thilo Hanemann of the Rhodium Group and builds on a 2011 Asia Society study, entitled An American Open Door?: Maximizing the Benefits of Chinese Foreign Direct Investment, which looked more broadly at Chinese investment into the U.S. The new report is the most comprehensive study to date of Chinese investment in the Golden State and in the U.S. overall. It finds that the potential gains for California and China are enormous but that success is far from guaranteed. U.S.-China relations remain tense and protectionism is a serious threat. At the state level, California has had a mixed record of promoting its economic strengths. The report urges policy and business leaders in the state to do better to out-compete other states, and nations, that seek to increase their own shares of the Chinese outbound investment surge. Four decades ago, Japanese direct investment in the U.S. was at a similar stage. Now, it totals some $300 billion, employs 700,000 Americans, and undergirds a strong, stable U.S.-Japan relationship. Investment and trade between the U.S. and China show even greater promise today. Compared to the rest of the U.S., the report finds that Chinese investment in California is disproportionately from private rather than state-owned enterprises, greenfield rather than M&As, and strongest in high-tech and high-value services — areas that the Chinese government and private sector have targeted for accelerated growth. Of the $1.3 billion in Chinese investment in the state since 2000, Southern California leads the state in investment with 69 deals totaling $618 million. The San Francisco Bay Area and Silicon Valley/South Bay regions are the second and third most attractive regions for Chinese investors.
Topic:
Foreign Direct Investment, Economy, Business, and Trade
Political Geography:
China, Asia, California, North America, and United States of America

300. An action plan for US policy in the Americas

Author:
Robert F. Noriega and José R. Cárdenas
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
As US policymakers struggle to overcome sluggish economic growth while confronting abiding security threats, there is a stronger argument than ever for fortifying US partnerships with countries in the Americas whose economies and security are intertwined with America’s own economy and security. While the United States has been preoccupied with other regions, most Latin American nations have continued to modernize their market economies; two nations in particular—Brazil and Mexico—are emerging as global players. Therefore, the time is right to restore a strong bipartisan consensus in the United States that promotes a constructive, free-market growth agenda in the Americas. Practical initiatives—not rhetoric—will encourage America and its neighbors to find common ground for their collective benefit.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Partnerships, Economy, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
Latin America and United States of America